DB42DB42/T880—2013太陽能光伏發(fā)電功率預(yù)報(bào)規(guī)程Theforecastingprocessofsolarphotovoltaic(PV)powergeneration2013-01-04發(fā)布2013-05-01實(shí)施湖北省質(zhì)量技術(shù)監(jiān)督局發(fā)布I III V 1 1 1 1 1 13.4太陽輻射[照]度 1 1 1 2 24.1預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)象 24.2預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效 24.3預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)間分辨率 2 2 2 2 25.4預(yù)報(bào)發(fā)布時(shí)間及預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)段 25.4.1預(yù)報(bào)發(fā)布時(shí)間 25.4.2預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)段 2 2 3 4 5 6IIIVVI1本標(biāo)準(zhǔn)適用于湖北省范圍內(nèi)并網(wǎng)光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的短期太陽輻照度和光伏發(fā)電短期預(yù)報(bào)short-rangefore光伏發(fā)電solarphotovolt并網(wǎng)光伏發(fā)電系統(tǒng)grid-connectedphotovoltaicpowergenerati2數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報(bào)numericalweatherPredi根據(jù)大氣實(shí)際情況,在一定的初值和邊值條件下，通過大型計(jì)算機(jī)作數(shù)值計(jì)算，求解描寫天氣演變過程的流體力學(xué)和熱力學(xué)的方程組，預(yù)測(cè)未來一定時(shí)段的大氣運(yùn)動(dòng)狀態(tài)和天氣現(xiàn)原理預(yù)報(bào)方法principlesforecastingm值天氣預(yù)報(bào)（輻射預(yù)報(bào)）驅(qū)動(dòng)，實(shí)現(xiàn)光伏發(fā)電功動(dòng)力統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)報(bào)方法statistic-dynamicforecasting4.1預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)象4.2預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)效4.3預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)間分辨率5預(yù)報(bào)方法和制作流程5.1預(yù)報(bào)資料5.2預(yù)報(bào)方法35.4.1預(yù)報(bào)發(fā)布時(shí)間5.4.2預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)段4(資料性附錄)光伏發(fā)電功率原理預(yù)報(bào)方法和動(dòng)力統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)報(bào)方法流程圖圖A.1-圖A.2給出了原理預(yù)報(bào)方法流程和動(dòng)力統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)報(bào)方法流程I?圖A.1原理預(yù)報(bào)方法流程據(jù)圖A.2動(dòng)力統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)報(bào)方法流程5(資料性附錄)光伏發(fā)電功率預(yù)報(bào)制作流程圖圖B.1給出了光伏發(fā)電功率預(yù)報(bào)制作流程。方法圖B.1光伏發(fā)電功率預(yù)報(bào)制作流程6 1PfPfPo 1PfPfPoiPo Pi1i1i1………………（C.1）RMSE ……………rRMSENN/Cap…………（C.3）NMAEN………………（C.4）NnnMAPE/Cap…………（C.5）MAPENNMBE(N)N7N(PfiPNr