Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach

PVPS

Snapshotof

GlobalPVMarkets

2025

Task1

StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2025SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets

WHATISIEAPVPSTCP?

TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),foundedin1974,isanautonomousbodywithintheframeworkoftheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD).TheTechnologyCollaborationProgramme(TCP)wascreatedwithabeliefthatthefutureofenergysecurityandsustainabilitystartswithglobalcollaboration.Theprogrammeismadeupof6000expertsacrossgovernment,academia,andindustrydedicatedtoadvancingcommonresearchandtheapplicationofspecificenergytechnologies.

TheIEAPhotovoltaicPowerSystemsProgramme(IEAPVPS)isoneoftheTCPswithintheIEAandwasestablishedin1993.Themissionoftheprogrammeisto“enhancetheinternationalcollaborativeeffortswhichfacilitatetheroleofphotovoltaicsolarenergyasacornerstoneinthetransitiontosustainableenergysystems.”Inordertoachievethis,theProgramme’sparticipantshaveundertakenavarietyofjointresearchprojectsinPVpowersystemsapplications.TheoverallprogrammeisheadedbyanExecutiveCommittee,comprisedofonedelegatefromeachcountryororganisationmember,whichdesignatesdistinct‘Tasks,’thatmayberesearchprojectsoractivityareas.

TheIEAPVPSparticipatingmembersareAustralia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,China,Denmark,EnercitySA,EuropeanUnion,Finland,France,Germany,India,Israel,Italy,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Morocco,theNetherlands,Norway,Portugal,SolarEnergyResearchInstituteofSingapore(SERIS),SolarPowerEurope,SouthAfrica,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Thailand,Türkiye,UnitedStates,andtheUnitedKingdom.

Visitusat:

WHATISIEAPVPSTASK1?

TheobjectiveofTask1oftheIEAPhotovoltaicPowerSystemsProgrammeispromotingandfacilitatingtheexchangeanddisseminationofinformationonthetechnical,economic,environmentalandsocialaspectsofPVpowersystems.Task1activitiessupportthebroaderPVPSobjectives:tocontributetocostreductionofPVpowerapplications,toincreaseawarenessofthepotentialandvalueofPVpowersystems,tofostertheremovalofbothtechnicalandnon-technicalbarriersandtoenhancetechnologyco-operation.

Authors

Data:IEAPVPSReportingCountries,BecquerelInstitute(BE).

Analysis:Ga?tanMasson,AdrienVanRechem,Melodiedel’Epine(BecquerelInstitute),ArnulfJ?GER-WALDAU(EC-JRC);IEAPVPSTask1members

Editor:Ga?tanMasson,IEAPVPSTask1Manager

Design:IEAPVPS

DISCLAIMER

TheIEAPVPSTCPisorganisedundertheauspicesoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)butisfunctionallyandlegallyautonomous.Views,findingsandpublicationsoftheIEAPVPSTCPdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsorpoliciesoftheIEASecretariatoritsindividualmembercountriesDatafornon-IEAPVPScountriesareprovidedbyofficialcontactsorexpertsintherelevantcountries.Dataarevalidatthedateofpublicationandshouldbeconsideredasestimatesinseveralcountriesduetothepublicationdate.

COVERPICTURE

PVpanelsinLotusParkingcanopiesinHangzhouChinacredit:LONGi

2025SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAICPOWERSYSTEMSPROGRAMME

IEAPVPS

Task1

StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach

April2025

Task1

StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach-2025SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets

3

TABLEOFCONTENTS

ExecutiveSummary 4

1SnapshotoftheGlobalPVMarketin2024 7

1.1EvolutionofAnnualInstallations 7

1.2Impactofover-capacityinmanufacturing 9

1.3FocusontheTopMarketsin2024 10

1.4MarketSegmentation 10

2CumulativeInstalledCapacityintheWorld 11

2.1EvolutionofRegionalShareofPVInstallations 12

2.2LimitsofReportingConventions 14

2.3Decommissioning,RepoweringandRecycling 14

2.4ACorDCNumbers? 15

3ElectricityProductionfromPV 16

4Policy&MarketsTrends 17

4.1PolicyTrends 17

4.2Remunerationmechanisms 17

4.3ProsumersPolicies 18

4.4GridIntegrationandCurtailment 19

4.5LocalManufacturingPolicies 20

4.62025MarketPerspectivesinIEAPVPSCountries 21

5PVintheBroaderEnergyTransition 22

5.1PVandOtherRenewableEnergyEvolutions 22

5.2PVFosteringDevelopmentofaCleanerEnergySystem 23

4

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

TheglobalPVcumulativecapacitygrewtosignificantlyover2.2TWattheendof2024,upfrom1.6TWin2023,withover600GWofnewPVsystemscommissioned.Afterseveralyearsoftensiononmaterialandtransportcosts,modulepricescontinuedtodropthrough2024inastillmassivelyover-suppliedmarket,puttingtremendousfinancialpressureonallindustrialactorsononehandbutstimulatingmarketsontheother.

Majortrendsinclude:

Withactivedevelopmentpolicies,China’sannualinstallationsincreasedagainto357.3GWornearly60%ofnewglobalcapacity,reachingover1TWofcumulativecapacity.Remarkably,ChinahostedalmosthalfofglobalthePVcapacityattheendof2024.

Therestoftheworldrepresentedjustover40%ofnewinstallationsbutthatnumbergrewsignificantlyin2024also,adding244.6GWtoreach1198.0GWinstalled.

Europedemonstratedcontinuedstronggrowthinstalling71.4GW(ofwhich62.6GWintheEU),ledbyGermany(16.7GW)andSpain(7.5GW).

IntheAmericas,bothmajormarketsgrew—theUSA,continuedstrongly,adding47.1GW(224.1GWcumulative)whilstBrazilcontinuedtogrowwith14.3GW,bringingitscumulativecapacityupto52.1GW.

Indiahadapositivegrowthyearleapingto31.9GW,predominantlyincentralisedsystems.Pakistanhadalargevolumeofinstallationsreaching17GW,in4thplacegloballyforannualinstallations;otherAsia-Pacificmarketssloweddown(Australiato4.0GWandJapanto5.5GW).

PVenergyproductionreachedmorethan10%oftheworldelectricityconsumptionforthefirsttime.

ThetheoreticalpenetrationrateofPVhasgrownacrosstheworldascapacityincreasesfasterthanconsumption,displacingcoalandgasinincreasinglylargevolumes.Morethan25countrieshaveinstalledcapacitiesabletosupplymorethan10%ofnationalconsumptionandhalfadozenofthesecountriesareapproachingorover20%;forthosecountrieswiththehighestpenetrationrates,curtailmentisincreasinglyprevalentandinvestmentsingriddecongestionandinterconnections,aswellasflexibility,storageandsectorcouplingwillbeneededinthefuturetotakeadvantageofpeakcapacity;theprovisionofalternativeservicesbygenerators(hybridsystems,capacityreserves,systemservices)islikelytobecomeimportanttomaintainlongtermprofitabilityascurtailmentisactionedbothfortechnicalreasons(supplyimbalances)andmarketsreasons(negativeprices).

Marketdevelopmentremainssubjecttoregulationsandsupportpolicies,butalsoelectricityconsumption,wholesalepricesandgridconnectioncosts.Lowmodulepricesthrough2024stimulatedmanymarkets-bothincentralisedandprosumersegments-howeveraselectricitypricesreturnedtolowerlevelsafter2022/2023highs,individualmarketsegmentsslowedorshrankinsomecountries.Increasedpolicysupporthasbeentheresponseincountrieswithstrongtransitiontargets.

PVplayedanimportantroleinthereductionofCO2emissionsfromelectricityonceagainin2024,andPVrepresentedmorethan75%ofnewrenewablecapacityinstalledin2024,contributingnearly60%ofgenerationfromnewrenewablecapacity.

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OversupplyofPVmodulesin2024hascontinuedtoshedalightonthedifficultytoalignproductionanddemandinaveryversatileenvironment:productioncapacitiesincreasedsignificantlyinChina,anddespitegrowthinmostmajormarkets,itwasnotsufficienttoabsorballnewmanufacturing.HugeimportshavebeennoticedinsomespecificmarketssuchasSaudiArabiaandPakistan,andwhilstthesevolumeshavebeeninstalledinPakistan,somehypothesizethatlowpricesmighthaveledtobuyingwithoutinstallinginotherhighvolumeimportmarkets.

Localmanufacturingremainedakeysubjectthroughout2024astheChineseindustries,continuedover-capacitypushedmodulepricestorecordlows.TheintroductionofimporttariffsonmoduleswasadoptedasaprotectionmeasureinalimitednumberofcountrieswithactivemanufacturingsupportpoliciesbutunevenpoliticalsupportinothermarketscouldalsohavecontributedtothedifficultiesindevelopinglocalPVmanufacturingfacilitiesinanalreadyinundatedmarket.

Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach2025Snapshot

6

Task1

StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach-2025SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets

7

1SNAPSHOTOFTHEGLOBALPVMARKETIN2024

IEAPVPScontinuestoproduceunbiasedreportsonthedevelopmentofPVallovertheworld,basedoninformationfromofficialgovernmentbodiesandreliableindustrysources.This13theditionofthe“SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets”aimsatprovidingpreliminaryinformationonhowthePVmarketdevelopedin2024.The30theditionofthePVPScomplete“TrendsinPhotovoltaicApplications”reportwillbepublishedinQ42025.

1.1EvolutionofAnnualInstallations

Atleast2156.5GWofcumulativecapacitywasinstalledbytheendof2024,withafurther90GWpossibleidentifiedbyIEAPVPSExperts,foranestimatedglobalcumulativecapacityof2246.5GW.Atleast554.1GWbutperhapsasmuchas601.9GW

1

ofPVsystemshavebeencommissionedintheworldlastyear.Countries

2

intheIEAPVPSprogrammein2024covered80%ofannualandcumulativecapacity–ifIndia,whojoinedIEAPVPSfrom2025isincluded,thiscoverageincreasesto85%.Thegrowthratefellbackclosertohabitualvaluesatjustover30%,downfrom89%over2023.

In2024,atleast34countriesinstalledmorethan1GW,upfrom29countriesin2023.25countrieshavemorethan10GWoftotalcumulativecapacityandsevenhavemorethan40GW.Chinaaloneisestimatedtohavepassed1TW;theEuropeanUnion(asEU27)nowhas339.4GW.TheUSAranksthirdat224.1GWandIndiahasovertakenJapantotakefourthplacewith124.6GW.GermanyandJapanwillbothpassthe100GWmarkin2025.

Globalmarketshaveseensustaineddouble-digitgrowthoverthepastfiveyears;whilst2024“only”sawabout32%growthcomparedto2023’snearly90%growth,theabsolutevolumesareremarkable.China’smarkethadanotherdynamicyearasinternalforcespushedtoabsorbmanufacturingcapacitybringingthenationalmarketshareto59%ofnewglobalcapacity.TheEUandtheUSAaccountedforjust18%ofnewcapacityasothermarketsalsodevelopedstrongly-India,BrazilandPakistancollectivelyinstalledthesamevolumeastheEU.

1Theminimalannualvolumeof554.1GWconsidersofficialChinareporting;themaximalannualvolumeof601.9GWconsidersafurther47.8GWthatmayhavebeeninstalled;therangeinvolumesislinkedtotheestimatedchoiceofinverterloadratio(ILR)orACtoDCconversionratioofUtilityscalesystemsinChina.Formanyfigures,thesetwovalueshavebeenrepresentedwithfull(minimum)andadditionalshaded(maximum)bars.Ifnototherwisespecified,compileddatareferstothehigherestimatedvalues.

2Forthepurposeofthisreport,IEAPVPScountriesarethosethatareeithermemberintheirownrightorthroughtheadhesionoftheEC.

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GWpFIGURE1:EVOLUTIONOFANNUALPVINSTALLATIONS602

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0

456

242

174

77

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32

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200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024IndiaBrazilOthercountriesOtherIEAPVPSCountriesEuropeanUnionUSAChina

Source:IEAPVPS

Growthratesinindividualcountriesremainsubjecttolocalpoliciesandinternationalmarketpricesandconsiderablevariationscanbeseenbetweencountriesandyeartoyear.Whilstgrowthrateshaveslowed(butremainpositive)inmanymarkets,othershavestabilisedorcontracted.TheEUhadlowgrowthascontinuedexpansioninGermanyandFrancewas

Source:IEAPVPS

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balancedbyslow-downsinSpainandtheNetherlands.Ofparticularnote,theTurkishmarketgrewoverthepasttwoyearsandisexpectedtoremainstrongaslocalmanufacturingdevelopsandelectricitypricesremainhighfollowingtheLira’sdepreciation.SeveralGWwereinstalledandcommissionedovertheendof2023andearly2024,impactinghowdatawasrecordedinpreviousreports.

The2024Indianmarketbenefitedfrombothlow-costimportsandacut-offdateforusingthem,aswellascorporategreenmandates.NotshowninFigure2,Pakistanhadverystrongadditionstonewcapacity.Dataqualityisuncertainwhenitcomestoinstalledvolumes,butlargevolumesofmoduleswereimportedin2023and2024(24GWover2yearsaccordingtotheChinaChamberofCommerce),andlargervolumeswereinstalledin2024withreportednewcapacitymorethan13times2023volumesat17GW.PolicychangeshaveimpacteddeploymentbudgetsinSouthKorea,whilststabilisedconsumerelectricitypriceshavecontributedtotheSpanishreducedmarket.

ThesedevelopmentshavenotbeensignificantenoughtoimpacttheregionaldistributionsharesofnewcapacityinmajormarketsasChinacontinuestodominate(Figure3).

GWpFIGURE3:GROWTHOFNEWANNUALCAPACITYINMAJORMARKETS

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201920202021202220232024

OtherNonIEAPVPSCountriesIndiaOtherIEAPVPSCountriesJapanEuropeanUnionUSAChina

Source:IEAPVPS

1.2Impactofover-capacityinmanufacturing

In2023,manufacturingcapacitylargelyoutstrippedthemarket’sabilitytoabsorbnewmoduleavailability.ModulestocksinChinaandEuropegrewfromalreadyhigh2022valuestoreachanestimated150GWbytheendof2023.In2024,stocksremainedhighasrelativelystablemarketsinEuropeandChinafailedtoabsorbthesehistoricalstocks.

Manufacturerscontinuedtodeliverlow-pricemodulestomarketsinanefforttosecurecashflows,andsomodulepricescontinuedtodecreaseacross2024.ConcertedactionbyChinesemanufacturingledtomodulepricesstabilisinginQ12025duetocontrolledproductioncutsandupwardsmovementinupstreamcosts.

Theselowprices,combinedwithdifferentlocalcontextsstimulatedmarketsinChinaandaselectionofcountriesincludingIndia,Pakistan,BrazilandsupportedmodestgrowthinsomecountriesinEurope.

However,thepressureontheindustryremainstremendousandsolutionsarequitecomplex:withallsegmentsofthePVvaluechaininsignificantovercapacity,theglobaldevelopmentof

10

PVshouldacceleraterapidlytoover1TWperyeartoabsorbthisoverproduction.ThisisachallengebasedonthecurrentdynamicsofthePVmarket,whichcouldleadtomassivePVdevelopmentsinnewbusinessmodels,suchasDirectAirCapture,productionofgreenhydrogenorderivativesandmore.

1.3FocusontheTopMarketsin2024

TheChinesemarketgrewagainin2024,althoughtherateslowed;itiscertainthatatleast

309.4GWwasinstalled(officialChinareporting)butfurtherestimationsbringthistoapossible

357.3GWin2024(upfrom277GWin2023and106GWin2022).With62.6GWofannualinstallations,theEuropeanUnionrankedsecond,followedbytheUSAat47.1GW.Indiamorethandoubledlastyear’snewvolumestoreach31.9GW(upfrom13GW).Theremarkableinfluxoflow-pricemodulesinthePakistanimarkethaspositionedtheminaprobablefourthplace,althoughcapacityestimationsareapproximate.ContinuedgrowthinGermanyandBrazilseesthesetwocountriesmaintaintheirplacesintheTop5.Spain,ItalyandFrancehavenationalmarketsthatfluctuateyeartoyear,cominginandoutoftheTopTenperiodically;withstableormoderategrowthin2023theyallappearthisyear.

ToreachtheTopTenfornewcapacityin2024,countriesneededtoinstallatleast5.5GWofPVsystems(comparedto4.2GWin2023andjust1.5GWbackin2018).

Note:TheEuropeanUniongrouped27Europeancountriesin2024,outofwhichGermany,Spain,Italy,FrancealsoappearintheTopTen,eitherfortheannualinstalledcapacityorthecumulativeinstalledcapacity.TheEuropeanCommissionisamemberofIEA-PVPSthroughitsJointResearchCentre(EC-JRC).*IEA-PVPSpreliminaryassessmentishigherthanofficialChinareporting

Source:IEAPVPS

1.4MarketSegmentation

Bothrooftopandutilityscalesegmentsgrewin2024,howevertheutilityscalegrewmuchmore–especiallyinChina,theUSAandIndia.DatauncertaintyinconvertingutilityscaleACcapacitytoDCcapacityinChina(andothercountries)remainsimportantbutunlike2023,theutilityscalemarketclearlydominated,representingovertwo-thirdsofnewcapacity:thechangecanbeexplainedbythefastinstallationratesinChinaaimedatabsorbingtheproduction.WhilstdistributedPVremainstheprincipaldriverofgrowthinsomemarkets

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(Brazil,Germany,Türkiye,ItalyandFranceforexample),thesheervolumethatcanbeinstalledinindividualutilityscalesystemsisleadingtothissegmentoutpacingdistributedgrowtharoundtheworld.NewerapplicationssuchasfloatingPVandlinearPVaremoreoftenwithinthecentralisedmarket,whilstagriPVandparkingcanopiesexistacrossboththecentralisedanddecentralisedsegments.Theincreaseindeploymentofprosumerandself-consumptionremunerationmodelstendstobelimitedtosmallercapacitysystems,withalargernumberofunitsystemsbutmuchlowercapacities.

GWpFIGURE4:SEGMENTATIONOFPVINSTALLATION2014-2024

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20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

ROOFTOPUTILITYSCALE

Source:IEAPVPS,BecquerelInstitute

2CUMULATIVEINSTALLEDCAPACITYINTHEWORLD

In2024,theglobalcumulativeinstalledcapacityreached2.25TW,asshowninFigure5.Ittookmorethan40yearstoreachacumulativecapacityof1.18TW(in2022),butjust2yearstodoublethis.Chinanowhasnearly50%ofcumulativeworldwidecapacity.Growthincumulativecapacityremainedover35%—aboveaverageforthepast10years.WithintheTopTenoftotalcumulativeinstalledcapacities(seeTable1above),wherelastyeartheChinesecumulativecapacitywasjustoverdoublethatofEurope,thisyearitistriple—thefastergrowthratesinannualcapacityleavingtheEUandothercountrieslagging.ThereisstillalonggapbeforeJapan,whoslippingto5thplaceandhasaslowingmarket,willbeovertakenincumulativecapacity—thenextmarketswouldhavetoimproveonthisyear’sannualvolumesoveratleast5yearstocatchupthemorethan40GWgap.

AsIndiaandtheUKjointheIEAPVPSprogrammein2025,thecumulativevolumeofinstallationsoutsideofIEAPVPSwillbecomemarginal.

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GWpFIGURE5:EVOLUTIONOFCUMULATIVEPVINSTALLATIONS

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140181231

346815

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200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

BrazilIndiaOthercountriesOtherIEAPVPScountriesEuropeanUnionUSAJapanChina

Source:IEAPVPS

2.1EvolutionofRegionalShareofPVInstallations

WiththepredominanceoftheChinesemarket,itisnosurprisethatAisa-Pacificleadsinregionalshare.Thispositionhasbeenreinforcedbecausetheonce-againextremelylargeChinesemarkethasgrownfasterthanelsewhere,andotherregionalshareshavegonedownproportionally.IfweexcludeChinafromtheAsia-Pacificmarket,whatremainsisroughlyequivalentinsizetotheEuropeanandtheAmericasmarket,thefirsttwoholding17%andthelatter14%ofglobalcumulativePVinstallations.

OutsideofChina,majorAsia-Pacific’smarketsvariedwidelyindynamics;India(31.9GW)andPakistan(17.0GW)hadstronggrowthwhilstJapan,SouthKoreaandAustraliaeitherslightlycontractedorremainedstable.Thesethreecountrieshavebeensignificantcontributorstomarketsinthepast,buttheircombinednewcapacityisslowlydecliningtowards10GWfromahighof18GWfiveyearsagoandtheircontributiontoglobalcumulativecapacityisdowntojust2%from6%in2020.Incontrast,Indiahasdevelopedstrongly,leaningbothonambitiousmanufacturingandmarketsupportaswellasbenefitingfromlow-costimports.TheabilityofIndiatocontinuewiththevolumesseenthisyearwilldependbothonthelocalmarketsabilitytofunctionwithhighercostlocalmanufacturingandoninvestmentinadministrativeproceduresandlabourmarkets.ThePakistanimarketthisyearistheresultoftheconvergenceofseveralfactorsfromrisingelectricitycosts,low-costimports,andarapidlyexpandingnetworkofmoduleimportersandresellers-thelargevolumeofimportedmodulesin2023indicatedthat2024wouldbedynamic.Withanestimatednewcapacityover17GW,realconcernsarebeingraisedaboutthelocalgridsabilitytoremainstableandtheviabilityofthewholeelectricitysystem,thathashighlegacycapacitycosts.

TheEuropeanregionalmarketlostseveralpercentagepointsinitsshareofglobalcapacitybutgrewasawhole,despitereductionsinSpain(duetolowercompetitivityontheprosumermarketsaselectricityconsumptionpricesdropped,whereannualcapacitywasdownto7.5GWforacumulativecapacityof47.2GW),aswellasPoland,theNetherlandsandsomeNordicmarkets.Othermarketsincreasedonceagain,includingGermany(16.7GWforacumulativecapacityof99.8GW),Italy,FranceandGreece.Nearly20countriesinstalledmorethan1GWinEuropein2024.

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TheAmericasregionalmarketisprincipallycomposedoftheUSAandBrazil,althoughanumberofcountrieshavesmallervolumes,eitherbasedontheriseofsmallprosumersystemsor,onthecontrary,asutilityscalesystemsareinstalled.With47.1GWnewcapacity,theUSAmarketpickedupcomparedto2023(33.9GW),despitegridconnectiondelaysandsomematerialshortagescontinuingin2024.TheBrazilianmarketcontinuedtogrow,at14.3GWforacumulativecapacityof52.1GW.

GWpFIGURE6A:EVOLUTIONOFREGIONALPVINSTALLATIONS

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AsiaPacificexcludingChinaChinaEuropeAfrica&MiddleEastRoWTheAmericas

Source:IEAPVPS

IntheMiddleEastandAfrica,Türkiyewasthemostdynamicmarket,adding4.1GWtolastyear's4.3GWforacumulativecapacityof19.6GW.TheSouthAfricanmarketslowedtoapproximately1.2GWbutahealthyvolumeofprojectsareinthedevelopmentphases.Therestofthecontinentsawmarginalvolumesinstalledcomparedtoelsewhere,despitethelargepipelineofannouncedprojects,manyassociatedwithstorageorgreenhydrogen/ammonia.

FIGURE6B:EVOLUTIONOFREGIONALSHAREOFGLOBALMARKET

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20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Africa&MiddleEastEuropeRestoftheworld

TheAmericasAsiaPacificexcludingChinaChina

Source:IEAPVPS

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2.2LimitsofReportingConventions

AsthePVmarketgrowsconstantly,reportingofPVinstallationsisbecomingmorecomplex.IEAPVPShasdecidedtocountallPVinstallations,bothgrid-connectedandoff-grid,whennumbersarereported,andtoestimatetheremainingpartonunreportedinstallations.Forcountrieswithhistoricallysignificantcapacityandgoodreporting,aslowyetgrowinggapbetweenshipped/importedcapacityandinstalledcapacitycanbeattributedtoseveralfactorsincludingconversionfactorsfromACtoDC,repoweringanddecommissioning.ConvertingACtoDCpower,particularlyondatasetscoveringawidegeographicalarea,issubjecttoaratherlargeuncertainty,asisdemonstratedwithChinadata—officialreportingofutilityscaleisinACpower,Chinaexpertsusea1.15or1.2conversionratiowhilstothersuseupto1.5.Franceusesa1.2conversionratio,Singapore1.3-practicesvarywithlatitudeandgridconstraints.Withalackofharddataonexistingsystems,theseratiosarebuiltonlimitedsurveysandstandarddimensioningpractices.

Theextremelyfastpaceddevelopmentofmicrosystems(plug&playsystemswithonlyafewmodules),whilstnotsignificantinoverallvolumesissymptomaticofthedevelopmentofunreportedsystemsreachingthemarketandsometimesbeinginvisibletodistributionsystemoperatorsanddatacollection.

Othermarketevolutionssuchasoff-gridapplicationsaredifficulttotrackeveninmembercountries,andsignificantgrowthininstallationsincountrieswithoutarobustreportingsystemisalsoalikelysourceofunderreporting.Inlightofthis,reportingheretakesintoaccountreportedandexpertestimatesofnewcommissionedcapacityaswellasprobableunreportedvolumesinstalledinoneoftheabovecontexts.

FIGURE7:COMMISSIONEDVOLUMES2024

AnnualCapacity(GWp)

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source;

118GW

MaximumInstalled602GW

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AC/DCratio

uncertainty;58GW

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trusted

secondary

source;425GW

Source:IEAPVPS

2.3Decommissioning,RepoweringandRecycling

DatapublishedbyIEAPVPSreportsonnewannualinstalledcapacity