INTERNATIONALFINANCEFORUM(IFF)GLOBALFINANCEANDDEVELOPMENTREPORT2024October2024hLhLFZ·IFF·INTERNATIONALFINANCEFORUMhLhLFrINTERNATIONALFINANCEFORUMAboutIFFINTERNATIONALFINANCEFORUMTheInternationalFinancialForum(IFF)isanon-profit,non-governmental,independentinternationalorganization.ItwasfoundedinOctober2003byG20countriesandinternationalorganizationssuchastheUnitedNations,theWorldBank,andtheInternationalMonetaryFund.NEWCAPITALNEWNEWCAPITALNEWVALUENEWWORLD新資本新價(jià)值新世界UIAInternationalOrganizationID:AA2980聯(lián)合主席/Co-chair周小川ZHOUXiaochuan戴青麗梁錦松李彤林建海約翰·利普斯基布萊恩·佩斯科馮慧蘭珍妮·希普利穆罕默德·希姆謝克多梅尼科·西尼斯卡爾科葉兆佳蕭志偉中尾武彥AxelWeber,YIXiaozhun,Samuel周漢民周延禮張繼中ZHOUHanmin,ZHOUYanli,ZHANGJizhong,顧問委員會(huì)聯(lián)合主席/Co-ChairofAdvisoryCommittee學(xué)術(shù)委員會(huì)聯(lián)合主席/Co-ChairsofAdvisoryCommittee安頓·馬斯凱特里趙忠秀AntonMuscatelli,ZHAOZhongxiu,張繼中祝憲林建海宋敏ZHANGJizhong,ZHUXian,LIN編輯部/EditorialDepaJoannaZhuang,ZHOUXin,G中國(guó)北京市東城區(qū)東長(zhǎng)安街1號(hào)東方廣場(chǎng)W3座OrientalPlazaW3,DongchengreproducedorexcerptedwithoutpermissionTheIFFadvocatesaninternationalandmarket-orientedoperationmechanismtoadvancethesupportiveroleoffinanceinsustainabledevelopmentthroughitsplatformsofstrategicdialog,cooperation,communication,practiceandinnovation,researchandtrainingprogram.OurMissionUpholdingthespiritof"ComprehensiveandSustainableDevelopment–NewCapital,NewValue,NewWorld",sincethefoundingin2003,theInternationalFinanceForum(IFF)hasbeencommittedtobuildingitselfintoaworld-classacademicthink-tankandmultilateraldialogueplatformwithstrategicinsight.OurGoalsTheInternationalFinanceForum(IFF)operatesbasedonanopen,transparentandfairmechanismtoensureitsindependence,objectivity,foresightandinclusivenessandtofacilitateglobalfinancialco-operationandexchanges.Throughin-depthresearchonglobalfinance,IFFiscommittedtopromotingsustainabledevelopmentofChinaandtheworldeconomy.Ourtargetsinclude:1.InternationalFinancialStrategicDialoguePlatform2.InternationalFinancialCooperation&ExchangePlatform3.InternationalFinancialInnovation&PracticePlatform4.InternationalFinancialStrategicThink-TankPlatform5.InternationalFinancialTalentsPlatform2024IFFGlobalFinanceandDevelopmentReport02030203The2024IFFGlobalFinanceandDevelopmentReportprovidesacomprehensiveanalysisofthecriticalfactorsshapingtheglobaleconomyandemergingtrendsinkeyfinancialanddevelopmentalsectors.Thissummaryintegratesthefindingsacrossfourpivotalchapters,coveringtheglobaleconomiclandscape,China'seconomicoutlook,theexpandingroleofgreenfinance,andtechnologyfinanceasadriverofproductivityinChapter1addresseskeyissuesaffectingtheglobaleconomy,includingsluggishrecovery,persistentinflation,andescalatinggeopoliticaltensions.Withthegrowthforecastremainingatalukewarm3.2%in2024,thechapteridentifiespandemicaftershocks,risingprotectionism,andinward-focusedpoliciesasmajorfactorsunderminingeconomicmomentum.Foreigndirectinvestment(FDI)isdecreasing,especiallyimpactingemergingeconomiesshifting,withmerchandiseexportgrowthturningnegativein2023,thoughvalue-addedexportswithinglobalvaluechainshaveshownresilience.HeightenedgeopoliticalrisksintheMiddleEastandflows,whilerisingdebt-to-GDPratiosinadvancedeconomiesareconstrainingfiscalflexibility.Theresurgenceofindustrialpolicies,particularlyinstrategicsectorslikesemiconductors,underscoresatrendtowardeconomicfragmentation.Thechapteremphasizestheneedforcoordinated,adaptablepoliciestostabilizemarkets,supportinvestment,andmanageinflationinthiscomplexenvironment.outlinesChina'sshiftfromaninvestment-drivengrowthmodel,estimatedtobeaboveRMB126trillionin2023,isunderpressureduetodecliningrealestateinvestmentsandconsumerspending.Nonetheless,China'shigh-techmanufacturingsector,withgrowthratesexceeding7%in2023,highlightsthepotentialofinnovation-drivenindustries.Thechapteralsoaddressesexternaltradeshifts,notinga6.3%increaseinein2024.China'seconomicstrategyemphasizesboostingdomesticdemand,upgradingindustries,andfosteringtechnologicalinnovationwhilemanagingrisksassociatedwithrealestateandovercapacity,fsustainabledevelopment,withgreenbonds,greenloans,andcarbonglobalgreenbondissuancetotaledUSD587.7billion,ledbyChina,Germany,andtheUnitedStates.GrereachingUSD206.8billion,primarilyinNorthAmerica,fundingprojectsincleanenergy,low-carbontransportation,andpollutioncontrol.CarbonmarketsaregroChina'sexpandingcarbonmarket.Chinahasbeenattheforefrontofgreenfinanceexpansion,exemplifiedbythe2024GreenandLow-CarbonTransformationIndustryGuideline.However,theabsenceofstandardizedglobaltaxonomyframeworkscontinuestoimpedecross-borderinvestmestrongerregulatoryframeworks,andpublic-privatepartnershipstoadvancegreenfinance,callingforglobalcollaborationtoestablishunifiedstandardsthatstrChapter4delvesintotheroleoftechnologyfinanceinChina,identifyingcriticalgapsinsupportinginnovationandpathwaysforimprovement.Whiletechnologyfinanceiscrucialinfosteringpriorityindustriesandstrengtheninginnovachallengesremain,particularlyinadvancinghigh-techstartupsandbasicresearch.High-techenterprisescontinuetofacesignificantfinancingbarriers,withlimiteddirectfinancingchannelsandinsufficientinvestmentinbasicresearch.Currently,R&Dspendingaccountsfor2.54%ofGDP,withthemajoritydirectedtowardexperimentaldevelopment,restrictingfoundationalprogressandimpedingbreakthroughsintechnologicalbottlenecks.Thechapteremphasizesthatenhancoptimizingfundingstructures,includingexpandinggovernment-guidedfunds,establishingventurecapitalandseedfundsfor"hardtech"fields,andsecuringlong-term,low-costcapitaltosupportsustainedinnovation.Increasessentialtoenhancefirms'abilitytointegrateadvancedtechnologiesandstrengthencoreinnovationcapabilitinnovationecosystem,thechaptercallsfordeeperpublic-privatepartnerships,diversificationoffinancialproducts,andmoreChina'snationalinnovationagenda.Collectively,thesechaptersunderscoretheinterconnectednatureofeconomicgrowth,technologicaladvancement,andsustainabledevelopmentintoday'sglobaleconomy.Thereportcallsonpolicymakers,investors,andindustryleaderstopursuecoordinatedstrategiesthatbalanceeconomicresilitechnologicalprogreZHAOZhongxiuCo-chairmanofIFFAcademicCommitteePresidentoftheUniversityofInternationalBusinessandEconomics04050405Contents2024IFFGlobalFinanceandDevelopmentReport01ExecutiveSummaryofthe2024IFFGlobalFinanceandDevelopmentReport02Contents04Chapter1GlobalEconomy061.1GlobalEconomicReviewandOutlook061.1.1EconomicGrowth1.1.2Globalinflation061.1.3GlobalInvestment061.2GlobalTradePattern091.2.1DevelopmentofTradeinMerchandiseGoods091.2.2DevelopmentofTradeinServices101.3PotentialRisksintheGlobalFinancialMarkets121.3.1GeopoliticalRisksandGlobalFinancialStability121.3.2GlobalDebtLevelsandFiscalRisks131.3.3GlobalCapitalFlowsandMarketRisks141.4MonetaryPolicyanditsImpactsonGlobalMarkets141.4.1ThebehaviorofUSmonetarypolicy141.4.2TheconsequenceoftheU.S.monetarypolicy151.4.3TheglobaltransmissionmechanismoftheU.S.monetarypolicy181.5IndustrialPolicy181.5.1Theriseoftechno-nationalismandthereturnofnewindustrialpolicy181.5.2TwonoveldimensionsofthenewindustrialPolicy:great-powercompetitionandgeopolitical/ideologicalrivalry191.5.3Howwelldoesnewindustrialpolicywork?191.5.4Prospectsforestablishingnewinternationalrulesonindustrialpolicy(inparticular,industrialsubsidies)20Chapter2TheChineseEconomy222.1TheChineseEconomyin2023-2024222.1.1OverviewofChina'sEconomicDevelopmentin2023-2024222.1.2InsufficientDomesticDemand:TheMainChallengeintheProcessofSwitchingfromOldtoNewGrowthDrivers222.1.3ProspectforChina'sEconomicGrowth242.2DevelopmentofNewQualityProductiveForces:BuildingupNewGrowthDrivers252.2.1ContributionofNewQualityProductiveForcestoNewGrowthDrivers252.2.2ChallengesFacingtheAIandSemiconductorIndustries262.2.3ImpactoftheNewRoundofUnderutilizedResourcesontheDevelopmentofNewQualityProductiveForces262.3InsufficientDomesticDemandandItsManagement:AdjustingOldGrowthDrivers272.3.1Overview272.3.2TheprofoundimpactofChina’spropertymarketdownturn272.3.3Governmentpoliciestostimulatedomesticdemand272.4ExternalEnvironment:KeyVariablesinShiftingGrowthDrivers292.4.1ContributionofExternalDemandtoChina'sEconomicGrowthin2023-2024292.4.2HighlightsandConcernsofExternalDemandfor2023-2024292.5Overviewof2.5OverviewoftheHongKongEconomy312.5.1HongKong'sGrowthProspects312.5.2EconomicHighlightsofHongKonginthePastYear312.5.3HongKong'sStatusasAGlobalFinancialCenter32Chapter3GreenFinance343.1GlobalGreenFinance:CurrentLandscapeandFutureOutlook343.1.1GlobalGreenBonds3.1.2GlobalGreenLoans373.1.3CarbonMarkets383.2GreenFinance:ChinaPractice393.2.1Introduction393.2.2KeyExperiencesintheDevelopmentofChina’sGreenFinance403.3GlobalExperiencesandCaseStudiesinGreenFinanceDevelopment443.3.1PolicyandRegulatoryFramework443.3.2InnovativeGreenFinancialInstruments443.3.3Public-PrivatePartnerships(PPP)DrivingGreenInvestment443.3.4RiskManagementandTransparencyinGreenFinance453.3.5.ChallengesandBarriersintheDevelopmentofGreenFinance45Conclusion45Chapter4TechnologyFinanceandNewQualityProductivityinChina464.1TechnologicalInnovationinChinaandNewQualityProductivity464.1.1CurrentStatusofTechnologicalInnovationsinChina464.1.2TechnologicalFirmsinChinaFaceSevereProblems484.2TechnologyFinanceinChina514.2.1CurrentStatusofTechnologyFinanceinChina514.2.2ProblemsinTechnologyFinanceinChina524.3HowcanFinanceBestServeHigh-TechStart-ups(CaseStudy)564.3.1Start-upPeriod(2013-2015):Technology+ServiceIntegrationDevelopmentModel564.3.2GrowthPeriod(2016-):Talent+Technology+Capital+ServiceFour-in-oneEcologicalAll-roundIncubationDevelopmentModel564.3.3ComparativeAnalysisbeforeandaftertheImprovementoftheDevelopmentModel574.4SuggestionsandProspectsofhowFinanceServesInnovationinChina574.4.1StrengthentheTop-levelDesign574.4.2InnovationinCreditProductsandServiceModels574.4.3InnovationinCapitalMarketSystemandMechanism584.4.4PromotingFinancialServiceInnovationwithTechnologicalMeans584.4.5BuildingaCollaborativeInnovationEcosystemforTechnologyFinance5806070607Globaleconomicgrowthisstablebutfacingincreasinguncertainties.Globmarketvolatilityisincreasing,geopoliticaltensionsarethreateningtradesystem,andindustrialpoliciesareshiftingtowardmoreinward-oriented,posingnewchallengestotheglobaleconomicrecovery.Inlightofthesedevelopments,thischapterexaminestherecentglobaleconomicdevelopmentsandpresentsaforecastoftheglobaleconomy.Themomentumoftheglobaleconomicrecoveryhasslowed.AccordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),globalgrowthisprojectedat3.2%in2024,similartothatof2023.AsshowninFig.1-1,theglobaleconomywassignificantlyaffectedbytheimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemic,withgrowthdecliningto-2.9%in2020.Theglobaleconomyrecoveredin2021,andsincethenthegrowthratehasbeenrelativelystablebutThisisduetoacomadjustments.Since2009,theglobaleconomyhasexperiencedatransitionfromtherecoveryandslowdownineconomicgrowthafterthefinancialcrisis,toaneweconomiccycle,withmultipleroundsofinflationfluctuationsinmajoreconomies.In2022,globalsupplychaintensions,geopoliticalconflicts,andproductiondisruptionscausedbythepandemiccollectivelypushedupenergyandcommodityprices,leadingtoageneralincreaseinglobalinflation.Since2023,majoreconomieshaveactivelyandinflationarypressureswerealleviatedconsequedatafromtheEuropeanStatisticalOffice,theannualinflationrateintheEUwas2.1%inSeptember2024,lowerthanthe2.4%inAugust.Thesameperiodlastyearwas4.9%.OnSeptember18,2024,theU.S.FederalReserveannouncedacutof50basispointsinthetargetrangeofthefederalfundsrat-5.00%.ThisisthefirstinterMarch2020,markingashiftfromatighteningtoaneasingmonetaryGlobalforeigndirectinvestmin2023accordingtotheWorldInvestmentReportreleasedbytheUnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD).FDIflowstoemergingmarkets,representing65%ofglobalFDIflows,decreasedby7%yearonyear.Specifically,FDIinflowstoFDIflows(thosefunneledthrmorepronounceddeclineof15%.TheU.S.remainedthelargestFDIrecipient,followedbyChinaandSingaporein2023.(1)OverviewAnnouncementsofgreenfieldprojects,whicharenewbusinessventuresundertakeninaforeigncountry,increasedinbothvalueandnumberin2023,drivenprimarilybyasignificantexpansionofmanufacturingprojectsinemergingmarkets.Thisincreasecanbeattributedtothepressingneedforsupplychaindiversification,whichsignificantlyinfluencedthegrowthofgreenfieldprojectannouncementsinkeysectorssuchasautomotive,metals,petroleum,Thevalueoftheseprojectsincreasedby20%inemergingmarkets,comparedtoan8%deThevalueofcross-bordermergersandacquisitions(M&A)fellsharplyby46%,particularlyintheservicessector.ThisdecreasecanbeattributedtoacombinationoffactorsincludingchallengingandforeigninvestmentregulatorsalsoplayedaroleininfluencingpotentialtransactionsintheUnitedStates,thelargestM&Amarket.Thevalueofinternat2023.Dealsinthetopthreeindustries,renewableenergy,industrialBoththenumberandthevalueofpublic-privatepartnership(PPP)announcementsfellin2023.Thevalueofinternationalprojectsinemergingmarketsdeclinedby31%,exaceinvestmentneededtoachievetheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsinthesecountries.(2)InternationalInvestmentPoliciesIn2023,thetotalnumberofnewinvestmentpolicymeasureswasinlinewiththefive-yearaverage,despiteadecreaseof25%from2022.Significantdifferencesremainbetweendevelopingandadvancedeconomies.86%ofthemeasuresadoptedbyemergingeconomieswerefavorabletoinvestors,andaimedatpromotingandfacilitatinginvestment.Conversely,measureslessfavorabletoinvestorsandadoptedbyadvancedeconomiesmadeuptwo-thirdsoftheglobaltotal.Manyofthesemeasureswererelatedtonationaltechnologies,andcoreproductssuchasmetalsandmining.0mmTotalGlobalGDPGlobalG%8%6420%8642020172018201920202021202220232024AmericaGermanyFranceChinaKoreaJapanIndia200920102013201520162019202120222023%200920102013201520162019202120222023%86420201120122014201720182020ChinaEUFranceUK201120122014201720182020JapanUS——Germany——IndiaAtotalof29new-generationInternationalInvestmentAgreements(IIAs)2weresignedbycountriesandregionalorganizationsin2023,InvestmentProvisions(TIPs).ThenumberofInvestor-StateDisputeSettlement(ISDS)casesreached1332,and60newarbitrationswereinitiatedduringtheyear.Bytheendof2023,atleast958ISDScaseshadbeenconcludedwithvaryingoutcomes.38%ofthecasesweredecidedinfavorofthestate,while28%weredecidedinfavorofthe08090809(3)GlobalInvestmentOutlookGlobalFDIexperiencedmixedresultsin2024.AccordingtopreliminaryUNCTADdata,globalFDIflowswitnessedamarginalincreaseof1%year-on-yearinthefirsthalfof2024,excludingfinancialflowsthroughEuropeanconduiteconomies.ToprecipientsofglobalFDIinflowsweretheU.S.,BrazilandMexico,whileFDIinflowstoChinadeclinedsignificantly,accordingtoOECDdata.TherecentinterestratecutbytheU.S.FederalReservemayhaveHowever,thegrowinginfluenceofgeopoliticaltensions,climatechange,andotherfactorsareincreasinglycomplicatingtraditionalapproachestoinvestmentpromotion.asharpdeclinein2020duetotheCOVID-19pandemic,followedquicklybyarebound.However,growthbegantoslowin2022andturnednegativein2023,indicatingpotentialchallengesahead.(seeFigure1-4).IntheeraofGlobalValueChain(GVC)development,tradeinintermediategoodshassurged.Traditionalcustomsstatisticscandouble-counttheserepeatedimportsandexports,whiletheGVCaccountingframeworkfocusesonvalue-added.Exportsofvalue-addedintheglobalnon-servicessectorshaveshownremarkableresilience,withstronggrowthoverthepastthreeyears.Althoughtheseexportswerevolatilefrom2014to2020,theyquicklyreboundeddespitechallengesliketheCOVID-19pandemic.From2021to2023,exportsremainedelevatedandcontinuedtogrow(seeFigure1-5).MerchandiseexportsareledbyChina,theU.S.,andGermany,whichconsistentlyoccupythetopthreepositions,andtheNetherlandsovertookJapanforthefourthplace.In2023,sevenotoptenexportingeconomieswereadvancedeconomies(seeFigure1-6).UndertheGVCframework,withtheexceptionofChinawhichleadsbyawidemargin,advancedeconomiesalsodominatenon-servicesvalue-addedexports,ledbytheU.SGlobalservicesexportshaveexperiencedincreasingvolatility.Servicesexportsincreasedby50%from2014to2023,intermsofbalanceofpayments(BoP)statistics.AlthoughtherewasadropinTrillionUSD1225.08%30%10.809.811020%860%4