外商直接投資如何影響東道國出口的表現(xiàn)——以中國為例外文翻譯外文翻譯原文HowDoesFDIAffectaHostCountry’sExportPerformance?TheCaseofChinaMaterialSource:UWFacultywebAuthor:KevinHonglinZhangAbstractFromthe32ndin1978tothe3rdlargestexportingcountryintheworldin2004,China’sexportboomwasaccompaniedbysubstantialinflowsofforeigndirectinvestmentFDIinthesameperiod.Exportsbyforeign-investedenterprisesin2004were$339billion,comprising57%ofChina’stotalexports.WhilethereareconsiderabletheoreticaltreatmentsoftheFDI-exportlinkage,relevantempiricalanalyseshavebeenlimited.ThispaperattemptstoclosethegapbyinvestigatingtheissuewiththeChineseindustrialdata.TheestimatesindicatethatFDIindeedhashadapositiveimpactonChina’sexportperformance,itsexport-promotingeffectismuchgreaterthanthatofdomesticcapital,anditseffectislargerinlabor-intensiveindustries,asonemightanticipateJELCode:F21;F23;O53KeyWords:ForeigndirectinvestmentFDI,Exports,Foreign-InvestedEnterprisesFIEs,MultinationalCorporationsMNCs1.IntroductionAnempiricalassessmentoftheroleofforeigndirectinvestmentFDIinahostcountry’sexportperformanceisimportant,sinceexportshavebeenforalongtimeviewedasanengineofeconomicgrowth.ThereisawidelysharedviewthatFDIpromotesexportsofhostcountriesbyaaugmentingdomesticcapitalforexports,bhelpingtransferoftechnologyandnewproductsforexports,cfacilitatingaccesstonewandlargeforeignmarkets,anddprovidingtrainingforthelocalworkforceandupgradingtechnicalandmanagementskills.Ontheotherhand,however,itissometimessuggestedthatFDImayalowerorreplacedomesticsavingsandinvestment;btransfertechnologiesthatarelowlevelorinappropriateforthehostcountry’sfactorproportions;ctargetprimarilythehostcountry’sdomesticmarketandthusnotincreaseexports;dinhibittheexpansionofindigenousfirmsthatmightbecomeexporters;andenothelpdevelopingthehostcountry’sdynamiccomparativeadvantagesbyfocusingsolelyonlocalcheaplaborandrawmaterials.1Whilefurthertheoreticalinsightswouldbevaluable,empiricalanalysesoftheissueareneededaswellforabetterunderstandingoftheFDI-exportlink.ThispaperattemptstoworkinthisdirectionbyusingtheChineseindustrialdataBesidestheintrinsicimportanceofthetopic,thecaseofChinaisofspecialsignificance.China’sexportboom,from$18billionin1980to$593billionin2004,wasaccompaniedbyasubstantialriseinFDIinflowsfromalmostzeroto$61billioninthesameperiod,withtheaccumulatedFDIbeingasmuchas$560billionbytheendof2004Figure1andTable1.Theexportsgeneratedbyforeign-investedenterprisesFIEsrosemuchfasterthanthosebydomesticfirms,resultingFIEshareof57%inChina’stotalexportsin2004.Figure1andTable1maybeinsertedhere.TherehasbeenagrowingliteratureontheFDI-exportlinkinChinaforexample,Lardy,1994;Nauthgton,1996;UNCTAD,2002;Zhang,2002and2005;ZhangandSong,2000.Whilequalitativeanalysesofferedbymostoftheexistingworkareusefulandinformative,econometrictreatmentsofthisissuehavebeenlimited.Themainpurposeofthisstudyistoprovideestimatesofalog-linearmodeloftheFDI-exportlinkagefor186industries.Takingadvantageoftherelativelylargenumberofindustriesusedinthework,wereportnotonlyestimatesofthemodelwiththefullsampleofindustries,butalsoestimatesofthemodelwithtwosub-samplesoflaborintensiveandcapital-intensiveindustries.2.TheRoleofFDIinChina’sExportsChinahasgreatpotentialtobecomeasignificantexporteroflabor-intensiveproducts,suchastextilesandotherconsumergoods.However,theChinesefirmsfacedimmensedifficultiesattheinitialstageinsettingupadistributionnetwork,keepinginclosetouchwithrapidchangesinconsumertastes,masteringthetechnicalitiesofindustrialnormsandsafetystandards,andbuildingupanewproductimage.Inmanycases,thedesign,packaging,distributionandservicingoftheproductsareasimportantastheabilitytoproducethemat,orbelow,rulingpricesinworldmarkets.ThelackofsuchskillsconstitutedakeybarrierforChinatoentertheworldmarkets.WhatroledoesFDIplayinChina’sexportperformance?Theoretically,thesimulativeeffectsofFDIonexportsofthehostcountryderivefromtheadditionalcapital,technology,andmanagerialknow-howthemultinationalcorporationsMNCsbringwiththem,alongwithaccesstoglobal,regional,andespeciallyhome-country,marketsUNCTAD,2002.TheseresourcesandmarketaccessbroughtwithFDIhavecomplementedChina'sresourcesandcapabilitiesandprovidedsomeofthemissingelementsforgreatercompetitiveness.Chinathereforehasbuiltuponthesetoenternewexportactivitiesandimproveditsperformanceinexistingones.FDIhelpsexportsbyinvestingcapitalintheexploitationofChina’slow-costlabor,especiallyinthe1980s,whendomesticinvestmentwaslimitedbyfinancialconstraints.SuchFDIbridgedtheresourcegapandtooktheriskofdevelopingnewexports.TheprovisionofadditionalcapitalhasbeencriticalforChinatobuildupitsinitialbaseoflabor-intensivemanufacturingexports.FDIprovidesChinawithcompetitiveassetsforexport-orientedproductionintechnologyintensiveanddynamicproductsintheworldtradeZhangandSong,2000.Suchassetsareoftenfirm-specific,costlyanddifficultfortheChinesefirmstoacquireindependently.Thetransferofsuchassetsbyforeignaffiliatesornon-equitypartnersinChinathroughtraining,skillsdevelopmentandknowledgediffusionopensupprospectsforfurtherdisseminationtootherenterprisesandtheeconomyatlarge.ThusmorefirmsincludingdomesticenterprisescandeveloptheirexportsandthefactorsunderlyingcompetitivenessgetrootedintheChineseeconomy.FDIpromotesexportsbyfacilitatingChinaaccesstonewandlargermarkets.Thisinvolvesforeignaffiliates'privilegedaccesstonotonlyMNCs'internationalproductionsystems,butalsoMNCs'intra-firmmarketsandaccessatarm'slengthtoMNCs'customersinglobal,regionalandhome-countrymarkets.Moreover,theselinkstoworldmarketsextendtosuppliersandotherdomesticfirms.Inaddition,ashappenedintheUS,ChinaalsobenefitedfromthelobbyingactivitiesofMNCsintheirhomecountriesforfavorabletreatmentofexportsfromtheiraffiliatesabroad.Export-orientedforeignaffiliatesprovidetrainingforthelocalworkforceandupgradetechnicalandmanagerialskillsthatbenefittheChineseexports.Thisisespeciallytrueforexport-orientedinvestmentsinadvancedtechnologicalcapabilities.ChinahasalreadyattractedsignificantMNCexportactivitiesatlabor-intensiveandlow-technologylevels.ThestrategicchallengefacingChinaisthatitsfuturecompetitivenessdependsonthehostgovernment'sabilitytoboostthehumancapitalandtechnologicalinfrastructure.Inturn,MNCsfeedbenefitsbackintolocalskillandtechnologysystems,providinginformation,assistanceandcontracts.ThepositiveroleofFDIinChina’sexportsmaybesummarizedintermsofdirectandindirecteffects.Thedirecteffectsrefertoexportsbyforeignaffiliatesthemselves.ThespilloversofFDIonexportactivitiesoflocalfirmsmakeuptheindirecteffectsBlomstrometal.,2000;UNCTAD,2002.ThecontributionsofforeignaffiliatestoChina’sexportsincludethefollowingfouraspects:aExportsthroughprocessingandassembling:Byprocessingcomponentsandassemblinginwhichdomesticfirmsimportunfinishedandintermediategoods,Chinabecameadominantexporteroflaborintensiveproductstoys,shoes,clothes,andsportinggoodsandsometechnology-intensiveproductsmachineryandequipments,includingelectroniccircuits,automaticdata-processingmachines,andmobilephonesUNCTAD,2002.Generally,theseexportsareorganizedbyMNCswithinverticallyintegratedinternationalproductionnetworkZhangandMarkusen,1999.MostoftheexportscreatedbyFDI80%in2002takeplaceinthisform,whichconstitutesthreequartersofChina’stotalprocessing-assemblingexportsSSB,2003.bExportsthroughconvertingimport-substitutingindustries:ManydevelopingcountriesincludingChinarestrictimportsofmanufacturingproductsbutmayallowFDIinthesesectors.Withwell-designedpolicies,Chinastartedandincreasedexportsoftheimport-substitutingproductsbycombiningitscheaplaborwithadvancedtechnologyembodiedinFDIZhang,2005.ThishasbeenhappeninginhomeappliancesTVsets,VCD,DVDplayers,cameras,refrigerators,andwashersandtheautomobileindustry.cExportsofnewlabor-intensivefinalproducts:ThesuccessofsomeChinesebrandnamesoflightconsumergoodsinenteringworldmarketsispartlyduetoFDIprovidinglinkstofinalbuyers,especiallyintheUSmarketsZhang,2002and2005.dExportsoflocalrawmaterialsprocessing:Intheprocessingoflocallyproducedrawmaterials,foreignaffiliatesmayhavebetterexportpotentialthanindigenousfirms,becauseoftheirbusinesscontactsabroad,marketingskills,andsuperiortechnology,bothinproductandprocesses,andgreatergeneralknow-how.Thisisespeciallytrueinthe1980s,whentheChinesefirmslackedtheseassetsandFDIwastheonlymeans,atleastforthetimebeing,ofincreasingexports.FDIenhancesaswellChina’smanufacturingexportsthroughspillovereffectsonlocalfirms’exportingactivities.Forinstance,localfirmsincreasetheirexportsbyobservingtheexportactivitiesofforeignaffiliates“l(fā)earningbywatching”andbymakinguseoftheinfrastructureoftransport,communicationsandfinancialservicesthatdevelopstosupportthoseactivities.ThesecondspillovereffectinvolvestheinfluenceofFDIonthecompetitivenessofdomesticfirms’exportsandthediffusionofnewtechnologies.Bybringingtheiradvancedproduct-processtechnology,management,andmarketingcompetence,MNCsmayincreasecompetitionintheChinesemarketsandforcelocalfirmstoadoptmoreefficientmethods.Thethirdspilloversarerelatedtothelinkagebetweenforeignandlocalfirms.Ifexport-orientedforeignsubsidiariesincreasetheirpurchaseofinputsfromlocalfirmsasthesubsidiarymatures,China’sexportsincreaseUNCTAD,2001and2002.4.ConcludingRemarksFDIhasbeenviewedasanacceleratorofhostcountries’economicgrowth.Oneofitsmajorpotentialgrowth-contributionistopromotehostcountries’exports.ThisstudyattemptstoempiricallyinvestigatetheissuebyusingtheChineseindustrialdata.TheestimatesindicatethatFDIindeedhasapositiveimpactonChina’sexportboom,itseffectsaremuchlargerthanthoseofdomesticcapital,anditseffectsarelargerinlabor-intensiveindustries,asonemightanticipate.China’ssuccessinpromotingexportsthroughFDIreportedheremightbesomewhatspecialduetoitsuniqueadvantageoverotherdevelopingcountriesinbargainingwithmultinationalcorporations.WhileFDIhaspotentialsinhelpinghostcountries’exports,thebenefitsdonotaccrueautomaticallyorevenlyacrosscountries.NationalpoliciesandhostgovernmentbargainingpowerrelativetomultinationalcorporationsmatterforattractingexportorientedFDIandforreapingitsfullbenefitsforexports.China’suniqueadvantagesinlargecountry-size,strongcentralizedgovernment,largeamountofrichoverseasChinesewhosetupmostoftheexport-orientedaffiliates,andwell-designedFDIstrategy,haveprovideditwithnegotiatingpowertominimizetheadverseeffectsandrealizepositiveeffectsofFDI.Someadditionalcommentsareworthmentioning.First,itshouldbenotedthatotherdeterminantsofChina’sexportsmayexistbutwereexcludedfromtheinvestigation.Thiswork,therefore,shouldnotbetreatedasanexhaustivestudyofexportperformanceinChinabut,rather,asanarrowlyfocusedinvestigationofthemeritsofFDI.Second,thefocusofthisstudyisontheroleofFDIinChina’sexportboom,notontheimpactofFDIontrade,orontheassessmentofbenefitsandcostsofFDIintrade.Infact,asexportscreatedbyFDIrose,importsbyforeignaffiliatesinChinahadgrownfasterthantheirexportsuntil1997SSB,2003.Thetopicsbeyondtheexport-promotingeffectsofFDImeritadditionalstudies.ReferencesBlomstrom,Magnus,AriKokko,andMarioZejan2000,ForeignDirectInvestment:FirmandHostCountryStrategies,London:MacmillanPress.Caves,Richard1996,MultinationalEnterprisesandEconomicAnalysis,the2ndedition,Cambridge,MA:CambridgeUniversityPress.Lardy,NicholasR.,1994,ChinaintheWorldEconomy,Washington,DC:InstituteforInternationalEconomics.Naughton,Barry1996,“China’sEmergenceandProspectsasATradingNation”,BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,2:273-344.Officeofthe3rdNationalIndustrialCensus1997,TheDataofthe3rdNationalIndustrialCensusofthePeople’sRepublicofChinain1995,Beijing:ChinaStatisticalPress.StateStatisticalBureauSSB2004,ChinaStatisticalYearbook2004,Beijing:ChinaStatisticalPress.StateStatisticalBureauSSB1979-2003,ChinaForeignEconomicStatisticalYearbookvariousyears,Beijing:ChinaStatisticalPress.UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopmentUNCTAD2001-2002,WorldInvestmentReport2001and2002,NewYork:UnitedNations.White,Halbert1980,“AHeteroscedasticity-Consistentcovariancematrixestimatorandadirecttestforheteroscedasticity,”Econometrica,48:817-838.Zhang,KevinH.2002,“ChinaasANewPowerinWorldTrade,”inFung,Pei,andJohnsoned.,China’sAccesstoWTOandGlobalEconomy,Beijing:YuhangPublishingHouse,32-49.Zhang,KevinH.2005,“China’sExportCompetitiveness,”inKevinH.Zhanged.,ChinaasAnWorldFactory,London:Routledge,forthcoming.Zhang,KevinH.andShunfengSong2000,PromotingExports:TheRoleofInwardFDIinChina,”ChinaEconomicReview,114:385-396.Zhang,KevinH.andJamesR.Markusen1999,“VerticalMultinationalsandHost-CountryCharacteristics,”JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,59:233-252.譯文外商直接投資如何影響東道國出口的表現(xiàn)??以中國為例資料來源:華盛頓大學(xué)網(wǎng)站作者:KevinHonglinZhang內(nèi)容摘要從世界出口大國排名第32位(1978)躍升到第3位(2004),中國出口繁榮的同時(shí)伴隨著巨大的外國直接投資FDI的流入。2004年外商投資企業(yè)出口是3390億美元,占中國出口總額的57%。雖然有關(guān)于投資與貿(mào)易一體化的理論融合嘗試、但有關(guān)實(shí)證分析仍是很有限。本文試圖通過對(duì)中國工業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的調(diào)查分析來填補(bǔ)這方面的空白。有關(guān)文獻(xiàn)指出,外國直接投資確實(shí)對(duì)中國的出口起到積極的影響,促進(jìn)出口的效果與國內(nèi)資本相比較更巨大,尤其在勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)文獻(xiàn)編碼:F21;F23;O53關(guān)鍵詞:外商直接投資出口外資企業(yè)跨國公司介紹實(shí)證分析外商直接投資在東道國出口方面扮演的角色是十分重要的,當(dāng)出口在長期中成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動(dòng)力。有一個(gè)廣泛認(rèn)同的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為外國直接投資促進(jìn)東道國的出口通過(a)推動(dòng)國內(nèi)資本出口業(yè)務(wù),b幫助轉(zhuǎn)讓技術(shù)和新產(chǎn)品的出口,c便于進(jìn)入新興的和大型的外國市場(chǎng),d提供培人才培訓(xùn),提升技術(shù)水平和管理技能。另一方面,它有時(shí)暗示著外國直接投資可能a降低或更換國內(nèi)的儲(chǔ)蓄和投資;b轉(zhuǎn)讓技術(shù)水平較低或不適宜東道國的要素比例;c主要目標(biāo)可能是東道國國內(nèi)市場(chǎng),因此不能擴(kuò)大出口d抑制本土公司的擴(kuò)張,取代出口商的角色;e并沒有幫助東道國發(fā)展的動(dòng)態(tài)比較優(yōu)勢(shì),完全集中在當(dāng)?shù)亓畠r(jià)勞動(dòng)力和生產(chǎn)資料上。因此更深入的研究十分有價(jià)值,對(duì)于貿(mào)易投資一體化的更好理解,實(shí)證分析是非常有需要的。本文將試圖利用中國工業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)來研究這一問題。除了主題內(nèi)在的重要性,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展案例也是一項(xiàng)重大的課題。中國的出口日漸繁榮,從1980年的180億美元到2004年的5930億美元,在這段期間里,伴隨的外國直接投資流入也有了大幅度的增長,幾乎從零到2004年的610億美元,截至2004年年底,累計(jì)的外商直接投資高達(dá)5600億美元圖表1。外資企業(yè)較本地企業(yè)對(duì)出口的貢獻(xiàn)率快速增長,以致2004年外資企業(yè)出口量占中國出口總量的57%。在中國有一個(gè)正在成熟的關(guān)于貿(mào)易投資融合的理論(例如:Lardy,1994;Nauthgton,1996;UNCTAD,2002;Zhang,2002and2005;ZhangandSong,2000)。雖然在定性分析中提供大部分已經(jīng)存在的有用的信息,但是計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)對(duì)于處理這個(gè)問題是仍是很有限的。研究的主要目的是提供對(duì)log-linear模型關(guān)于186個(gè)行業(yè)貿(mào)易投資聯(lián)動(dòng)的估量。利用相對(duì)較大的一些行業(yè),應(yīng)用于研究中,我們得出的不僅是預(yù)測(cè)的模型與充分樣本的產(chǎn)業(yè),而且能預(yù)測(cè)勞動(dòng)密集型和資本密集型的二次采樣模型。2.外商直接投資在中國出口中扮演的角色中國有很大的潛力來成為一個(gè)重要的勞動(dòng)密集型產(chǎn)品出口國,比如紡織業(yè)和其他消費(fèi)品。然而,中國公司面臨著巨大的困難:建立初始階段的分銷網(wǎng)絡(luò);滿足消費(fèi)者迅速變化消費(fèi)需求,掌握技術(shù)性工業(yè)規(guī)范和安全標(biāo)準(zhǔn),建立一種新產(chǎn)品的形象。在許多情況下,有關(guān)產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計(jì)、包裝、分銷和服務(wù)與生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品通行價(jià)格或者低于世界市場(chǎng)價(jià)格一樣重要。缺乏這些技術(shù)構(gòu)成了一個(gè)對(duì)于中國進(jìn)入世界市場(chǎng)的關(guān)鍵性障礙。外國直接投資在中國出口中扮演的角色是什么呢?從理論上講,外國直接投資在東道國出口上的仿真效果源自額外的資金、技術(shù)和管理知識(shí)由跨國公司的帶給他們,隨著進(jìn)入全球、區(qū)域,特別是母國市場(chǎng)聯(lián)合國貿(mào)易與發(fā)展會(huì)議,2002。這些資源和市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入帶來外國直接投資補(bǔ)充中國資源與能力,提供了更大的缺失的元素的競(jìng)爭力。中國因此已經(jīng)建立起這些進(jìn)入新的出口活動(dòng),在既有的特性基礎(chǔ)上提高了其供能。在國際貿(mào)易中,外國直接投資為中國出口的技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品和動(dòng)態(tài)產(chǎn)品提供了有競(jìng)爭力的資產(chǎn)ZhangandSong,2000年。因此這些資產(chǎn)通常具有專有性、昂貴和中國企業(yè)很難獲得的獨(dú)立性的特點(diǎn)。在中國的外國企業(yè)或非股權(quán)合作伙伴通過培訓(xùn)、技術(shù)開發(fā)和知識(shí)擴(kuò)散來轉(zhuǎn)移這些資產(chǎn),為進(jìn)一步傳播到其他企業(yè),甚至整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)而開拓前景。因此更多的企業(yè)包括國內(nèi)企業(yè)可以發(fā)展他們的出口和潛在競(jìng)爭力得到扎根于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要原因。外國直接投資促進(jìn)出口通過促進(jìn)中國進(jìn)入新的以及更大的市場(chǎng)。這涉及到外國分支機(jī)構(gòu)的特權(quán),訪問不僅是跨國公司國際生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng),還有跨國公司企業(yè)內(nèi)部市場(chǎng)和伸向跨國公司在全球、區(qū)域和母國市場(chǎng)的消費(fèi)者。此外,這些世界市場(chǎng)上的聯(lián)系將延伸到供應(yīng)商和其他國內(nèi)公司。另外,就像美國一樣,中國也從跨國公司在母國為了有利于分支機(jī)構(gòu)的出口游說活動(dòng)中獲利。