IN-DEPTHANALYSIS

EconomicGovernanceandEMUScrutinyUnit(EGOV)

EN

Directorate-GeneralforEconomy,TransformationandIndustry

PE773.688-June2025

MonetaryPolicyExpertPanelQuarterlySurvey:2025Q2

ThispaperpresentstheaggregatedresultsofasurveyconductedamongMembersoftheMonetaryPolicyExpertPanel(MPEP)aheadoftheJune2025MonetaryDialoguewithECBPresidentChristineLagarde.TheopinionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethesoleresponsibilityofthesurveyrespondentsandshouldnotbeattributedtotheEuropeanParliamentoritsservices.

Thesurveycoveredkeytopics,includingrecentECBmonetarypolicydecisions,inflationandbalancesheetdevelopments,monetarypolicytransmissionandmonetary-fiscalpolicyinteractions,andtheimpactoftheriseofstablecoinsandcrypto-assetsfortheconductoftheECB’smonetarypolicy.

ItalsogatheredviewsontheEurosystemstaffmacroeconomicprojectionsreleasedinJune2025forheadlineinflation,coreinflationandrealGDPgrowthacrossthreetimehorizons(2025,2026and2027),alongwithassessmentsofupsideanddownsideriskstotheinflationoutlook.Atotalof38respondentsparticipatedinthesurvey.Annex1providesdetailsonthetimingandparticipantswhocontributedtotheMPEPQuarterlysurveyroundforQ22025.

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Someofthekeyfindings

1

are:

?70%oftherepliesagreesthatthecurrentleveloftheECB’skeyinterestrate(depositfacilityrate)isappropriateandconsidersthelatestdecisiontocutratesadequate.However,expertsaresplitonwhattheGoverningCouncilshouldsignalforfuturerates.

?Amajorityofrepliesshowsagreementthatthecurrentmonetarypolicystanceiswell-calibratedtosupportgrowthintheeuroareaandmaintainfinancialstability.TheyalsosignalthatEUR-USDexchangeratedevelopmentswilllikelyinfluenceECBdecisionsintheshortterm.

?WhilemostrepliesseemtoendorseECBheadlineinflationprojectionsfor2025and2027,amajorityofthemwarnsthatestimatesfor2026areunderestimated.

?MostexpertsdeemitunlikelythatawidespreadadoptionofUSD-denominatedstablecoinsmaythreateneuroareamonetarysovereigntyorhamperbanks'deposit-taking.Instead,expertsseemmoreuncertainonitsfinancialstabilityimplications.

?Mostexpertsagreethatadigitaleuromaybeakeylineofdefenceagainsttheproliferationofforeigncurrency-denominatedstablecoins.

?Expertsbroadlyagreethattheerosionofthedollar'sstatusmayboosttheinternationalroleoftheeuro.

1Basedonconfidence-weightedresponses.Foracomprehensiveoverviewofthenumberofrespondentsandthemethodologyusedtocomputeourconfidence-weightedresponses,pleaserefertotheAnnex.

MonetaryPolicyExpertPanelQuarterlySurvey:June2025

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PART1:

Interestrates,balancesheetandforwardguidance

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1.a)Fromtheperspectiveofachievingpricestability,expressedas2%HICPinflationoverthemediumterm,thecurrentleveloftheECB’skeyinterestrate(thedepositfacilityrate,currentlyat2.0%)is:

1.c)Giventhecurrentinflationoutlook,andfinancialandmacroeconomicconditionsintheeuroarea,thepaceofreductionoftheEurosystem’sbalancesheetis:

1.d)Inthecurrentcontext,theGoverningCouncil’sindicationsaboutfutureinterestratedecisionsshould:

1.b)TheGoverningCouncil’slatestdecisionon5Junewastolowerkeyinterestratesby25basispoints.Giventheinflationoutlookandotherrelevantelements,themostappropriatedecisionatthetimewouldhavebeento:

MonetaryPolicyExpertPanelQuarterlySurvey:June2025

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PART2:

Otherconsiderationsrelevantforthepursuitofpricestability

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2.a)TheECB’soverallmonetarypolicystanceiswell-calibratedtosupporteconomicgrowthintheeuroarea.

2.b)TheECB’soverallmonetarypolicystanceisconsistentwiththeobjectiveofsafeguardingfinancialstability.

2.c)TheECB’smonetarypolicydecisionsintheneartermarelikelytobeinfluencedbyUSD/EURexchangeratedevelopments.

MonetaryPolicyExpertPanelQuarterlySurvey:June2025

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PART3:

Monetarypolicytransmissionandmonetary-fiscalpolicyinteractions

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3.a)TheECB’smonetarypolicyiscurrentlyeffectivelytransmittedthroughthebankingsector.

3.b)ThecurrentlevelofinflationdifferentialsbetweenMemberStatesposeschallengesfortheuniformtransmissionofECB’smonetarypolicy.

3.c)Thecurrentstateofnationalfiscalpolicycoordinationandmultilateralsurveillancesupportsmonetarypolicyinachievingitspricestabilityobjective.

MonetaryPolicyExpertPanelQuarterlySurvey:June2025

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PART4:

Projectionsassessment

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4.a)ThelatestEurosystemstaffprojectionsfromJune2025onheadlineinflationfortheeuroareaare:(currentprojectionsinbrackets)

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4.b)ThelatestEurosystemstaffprojectionsfromJune2025oncoreinflation(excl.energyandfood)fortheeuroareaare:(currentprojectionsinbrackets)

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4.c)ThelatestEurosystemstaffprojectionsfromJune2025onrealGDPgrowthratesfortheeuroareaare:(currentprojectionsinbrackets)

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4.e)WhatdoyouseeastheprimaryupsideriskstotheECB'sinflationoutlook:

4.d)WhatdoyouseeastheprimarydownsideriskstotheECB'sinflationoutlook:

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PART5:

Stablecoinsandcrypto-assets

MonetaryPolicyExpertPanelQuarterlySurvey:June2025

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5.a)HowlikelyisitthatawidespreaduseofU.S.dollar-denominatedforeigncurrency-denominated)stablecoinscouldthreatenthesovereigntyoftheeuroarea?

(orothermonetary

5.b)HowlikelyisitthatawidespreaduseofU.S.dollar-denominated(orotherforeigncurrency-denominated)stablecoinscouldnegativelyaffectdeposit-takingbyeuroareabanks?

5.c)HowlikelyisitthatawidespreaduseofU.S.dollar-denominated(orotherforeigncurrency-denominated)stablecoinscouldhaveanimpactonthefinancialstabilityoftheeuroarea?

5.d)WouldyouagreewiththeECB'sviewthatadigitaleurowouldbeakeylineofdefenceformonetarysovereigntyagainsttheriseofU.S.dollar-denominated(orotherforeigncurrency-denominated)stablecoins?

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PART6:

Other

MonetaryPolicyExpertPanelQuarterlySurvey:June2025

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6.a)Thecurrenterosionofthedollar’sstatuscouldlaythefoundationsforagrowinginternationalroleoftheeuro.

Disclaimerandcopyright.TheopinionsexpressedinthisdocumentarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheofficialpositionoftheEuropeanParliament.Reproductionand

translationfornon-commercialpurposesareauthorised,providedthesourceisacknowledgedandtheEuropeanParliamentisgivenpriornoticeandsentacopy.?EuropeanUnion,2025.

Contact:

egov@ep.europa.eu

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ANNEX-MONETARYPOLICYEXPERTPANEL(MPEP)SURVEYROUNDS:TIMELINEANDRESPONDENTS

Survey

round

Questionnairesentout

Deadlineto

reply

Results

published

Respondents

Q22025

05/06/2025

11/06/2025

19/06/2025

CinziaALCIDI,IgnazioANGELONI,BenjaminBORN,ChristopheBLOT,BenjaminBRAUN,LauraBOTTAZZI,RebeccaCHRISTIE,Jér?meCREEL,NikDEBOER,PaulDEGRAUWE,RubenFERNANDEZ-FUERTES,CarloFAVERO,SerainaGRüNEWALD,VeronicaGUERRIERI,RainerHASELMANN,HendrikHEGEMANN,YuemeiJI,AlexanderKRIWOLUZKY,MaxKRAHé,BrendaKRAMER,ClemensKOOL,RosaLASTRA,GuidoLORENZONI,IvoMAES,TommasoMONACELLI,IreneMONASTEROLO,EmanuelMOENCH,Eric