ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025

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ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Abstract

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

Abstract

Despiteaslowdowninglobaleconomicgrowthprospects,theworld’selectricityconsumptionincreasedstronglyinthefirsthalfof2025,drivenbyrisingdemandfromindustry,appliances,cooling,datacentresandelectrification.Atthesametime,electricitysupplyfromrenewables,naturalgasandnuclearcontinuestogrow,withallsettoreachnewmilestones.

Thismid-yearupdatefollowstheextensive

Electricity2025

reportreleasedinFebruary,examiningthelatesttrendsandtheoutlookfortheremainderoftheyear.Itincludesupdateddatafor2024alongwithnewforecastsfor2025and2026coveringareassuchasglobalelectricitydemand,supplybyfueltype,andcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsfromelectricitygeneration.ThereportalsoanalysesthelatestdevelopmentsinmajoreconomiesincludingChina,theEuropeanUnion,IndiaandtheUnitedStatesandprovidesupdatedtrackingofwholesaleelectricitypricesacrossmarketsworldwide.

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Acknowledgements

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheGas,CoalandPowerMarkets(GCP)DivisionoftheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA)DirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS).ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyEren?am,EnergyAnalystforElectricity.

TheleadauthorsareEren?am,MarcCasanovasandJohnMoloney.

KeisukeSadamori,DirectoroftheIEA’sEMSDirectorateandDennisHesseling,HeadofGCP,providedexpertguidanceandadvice.

ValuablecommentswereprovidedbyotherseniormanagementwithintheIEA,inparticular,LauraCozzi.Inaddition,expertguidanceandvaluableinputfromCarlosFernándezálvarez,SeniorEnergyAnalyst,isgreatlyappreciated.

Thereportalsobenefitedfromanalysis,dataandinputfromHendrikDiers,CaroleEtienne,MartinStrandHu?ek,YuKawasaki,AkosLosz,GergelyMolnárandFrederickRitter.

IEAcolleaguesacrosstheagencyprovidedhelpfulinput,commentsandfeedback,inparticular,HeymiBahar,AlessandroBlasi,StéphanieBouckaert,CiaránHealy,PabloHevia-Koch,AraceliFernandezPales,VictorGarciaTapiaandBrentWanner.

TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankDianeMunroforskilfullyeditingthemanuscriptandtheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice,inparticular,JethroMullen,ClaraValloisandAstridDumond.

Questionsorcomments?

Pleasewritetousat

gcp@

or

eren.cam@

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Tableofcontents

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 6

Demand:Globalelectricityusetogrowstronglyin2025and2026 10

Supply:Renewablesgrowthemost,followedbygasandnuclear 16

Emissions:PowergenerationCO2emissionsareplateauing 22

Prices:Trendsinwholesalemarketsdifferacrossregions 24

Generalannex 29

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Executivesummary

Globalelectricitydemandoncoursetoexpandrobustlyin2025and2026despiteeconomicheadwinds

Globalpowerdemandisexpectedtorisemuchfasterovertheforecast2025-2026periodthanitdidduringthepastdecade.Whileslowerthanthe4.4%surgein2024,growthforecastsof3.3%for2025and3.7%for2026remainamongthehighestratesobservedinthepastdecadeandwellabovethe2015-2023averageof2.6%.Despiteaslowdownineconomicactivity,whichhasweighedonglobalelectricityusesofarin2025,heatwavescontinuetoaddtodemandinmanyregions,astheydidin2024.Risingdemandfromindustry,appliances,growingairconditioninguse,theexpansionofdatacentres,andongoingelectrificationwillremainmajordriversofstrongglobalelectricitydemandgrowththrough2026.Asaresult,electricitydemandisexpectedtorisemorethantwiceasfastastotalenergydemandin2025andtocontinuethistrendin2026.

ElectricitydemandinChinaandIndiaisexpectedtoriseatamoremoderatepacein2025thantherapidgrowthseenin2024.Aftera7%surgein2024,electricityconsumptioninChinaisprojectedtoincreaseby5%in2025,reflectingslowerdemandgrowthintheindustrialsector.Nonetheless,Chinaalonewillaccountfor50%ofglobalelectricitydemandgrowth,asitdidin2024.Similarly,after6%growthin2024,electricitydemandinIndiaisforecasttoriseby4%thisyear.However,strongergrowthisforecastforbothChina(+5.7%)andIndia(+6.6%)in2026,asactivityintheindustryandservicessectorspicksup.Together,thesetwoeconomieswillaccountfor60%ofglobaldemandgrowththrough2026.

TheUnitedStatesisseeingabove-trendelectricitydemandgrowthin2025,similarto2024,whereastheEuropeanUnionisstillrecoveringatamodestpacefollowingearliersteepdeclines.Afterrisingby2.1%in2024,USelectricitydemandisboostedfurtherbytherapidexpansionofdatacentresinboth2025and2026,reaching2.3%and2.2%,respectively,morethandoubletheaveragegrowthrateoverthepastdecade.IntheEuropeanUnion,electricityconsumptionisforecasttoincreaseby1.1%in2025,beforeacceleratingto1.5%in2026,similartothegrowthof1.6%in2024.WhilethedemandcontractionintheEUindustrialsectorcametoahaltin2024followingconsecutivedeclinesin2022and2023,asignificantrecoveryhasstillnotbeenobservedasofthefirsthalfof2025.

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Executivesummary

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Thefirsthalfof2025showedcontrastingtrendsacrossregionsinthermalgeneration

Inthefirsthalfof2025,whilecoal-firedgenerationdeclinedyear-on-yearinChinaandIndia,itincreasedintheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnion.

ThedeclinesinChinaandIndiawereduetomoremoderatedemandgrowthcomparedwiththesameperiodin2024andstrongexpansioninoutputfromrenewables.Bycontrast,intheUnitedStates,bothrenewablegenerationandcoal-firedoutputrosestrongly,withthelatterboostedbygas-to-coalswitchingduetohighernaturalgaspricescomparedwith2024.IntheEuropeanUnion,eventhoughsolarPVoutputbrokenewrecords,lowerwindandhydropowergenerationresultedinincreasedgas-andcoal-firedgenerationyear-on-year.Forfull-year2025,EUcoal-firedpowergenerationisforecasttodeclinecomparedwiththepreviousyear,whileIndiaisexpectedtoseeanincrease,contrarytothetrendobservedintheseregionsinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Low-emissionssourcesareexpectedtorecordstronggrowthoverourforecastperiodinmanyregions,raisingtheirshareintheglobalelectricitygenerationmix.

Renewables,naturalgasandnuclearenergyareall

contributingtomeetadditionaldemandthrough2026

WindandsolarPVareexpectedtocoverover90%oftheincreaseinglobalelectricitydemandin2025.Afterexceedingthe4000TWhmarkin2024,windandsolarPVgenerationcombinedissettosurpass5000TWhin2025and6000TWhin2026.

Electricitygenerationfromrenewableenergysourcesisforecasttoovertakecoal-firedgenerationinouroutlook.Dependingonweathertrendsandeconomicdevelopments,coal-firedoutputisexpectedtobesurpassedbyrenewablegenerationasearlyas2025orby2026atthelatest.Followingthismilestone,coalsshareintotalgenerationwilldropbelow33%forthefirsttimeinacentury.SolarPVandwindenergyarecentraltothisshift,withtheircombinedshareofglobalelectricitygenerationforecasttogrowfrom15%in2024to17%in2025,reachingalmost20%by2026anear-fivefoldincreasefromjust4%adecadeago.

Globalcoal-firedgenerationisforecasttomoveintoslightlynegativeterritoryin2025followinggrowthof1.3%in2024.ContractionsinChinaandEuropeareonlypartiallyoffsetbyincreaseselsewhere,notablyintheUnitedStates,IndiaandotherAsiancountries.Followingthismodestdecline,globalcoal-firedgenerationisexpectedtocontractby1.3%in2026amidcontinuedrenewablesgrowthandhighercoal-to-gasswitchinginmultipleregions.

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Executivesummary

IEA.CCBY

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Globalgas-firedgenerationisexpectedtoincreaseby1.3%in2025,andreachanewhigh,followinggrowthof1.9%in2024.Thegainsin2025aredrivenbycontinuedoil-to-gasswitchingintheMiddleEastandsustainedgrowthingas-firedgenerationinAsia.Whilehighernaturalgaspricessupportedincreasedgas-to-coalswitchingintheUnitedStatesinthefirsthalfof2025,lowerwindandhydropoweroutputinEuropebolsteredgas-firedgenerationthere.For2026,weforecastgrowthinglobalpowergenerationfromnaturalgasofaround1.3%.

Globalnuclearpowergenerationisontracktoreachanewrecordhighin2025andwillcontinueitsupwardtrajectoryin2026.ThisisdrivenbyplantrestartsinJapan,robustoutputintheUnitedStatesandFrance,andthecommissioningofnewreactorsinChina,India,Koreaandseveralothercountries.Globalnucleargenerationisexpectedtorisebyanaverageof2%overthe2025-2026period,approaching3000TWhin2026.

Powersectoremissionsareplateauingaslow-emissionssourcesgrowstrongly

Globalcarbondioxideemissionsfromelectricitygenerationareexpectedtoplateauthisyear,withaslightdeclineforecastin2026aslow-emissionssourcesdisplacefossil-firedsupply.Emissionsfromelectricitygenerationalreadyshowedsignsofslowingin2024whentheyroseby1.2%,followinggrowthof1.6%in2023.Thiswasdespiteevenhottertemperaturesin2024thanin2023,whichboostedelectricitydemandforcooling.Therapiddeploymentofrenewablesislimitingincreasesinpowergenerationfromfossilfuels,butabnormalweatherconditionssuchasintenseheatwaves,coldspellsorbelow-averagerainfall(affectinghydropoweroutput)canleadtofluctuationsinemissionslevelsfromoneyeartothenext.DevelopmentsinChina,wheremorethanhalfoftheworldscoal-firedpowergenerationtakesplace,cansignificantlyinfluenceglobaltrends.

Wholesaleelectricitypricesroseinsomeregions,whilenegativepricesarebecomingmorecommon

4.0.

Averagewholesaleelectricitypricesroseinthefirsthalfof2025year-on-yearinanumberofmarkets.WholesaleelectricitypricesintheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesrosebyabout30-40%amidhighergasprices.Whileaveragepricesremainedbelowthe2023annuallevels,theywerestillhigherthanin2019.Bycontrast,wholesalepricesincountriessuchasIndiaandAustraliadeclinedbyaround5-15%in2025comparedwiththepreviousyear.Atthesametime,manymarketscontinuedtoobserveanincreaseintheoccurrenceofnegativeelectricityprices.Theshareofhourswithnegativepricesonthewholesalemarketreached8-9%inthefirsthalfoftheyearincountriessuchasGermany,theNetherlandsand

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Executivesummary

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Spainupfrom4-5%in2024.Theriseinoccurrencesofnegativepriceshighlightstheurgentneedforgreaterflexibilityinsupplyanddemand.Appropriateregulatoryframeworksandmarketdesignstofacilitatesolutionslikestorageanddemandresponsewillbeessential.

Significantvariationsinelectricitypricesforenergy-intensiveindustriescontinueacrossregions.Followingsteadydeclinesin2023and2024fromtheir2022peak,electricitypricesforenergy-intensiveindustriesintheEuropeanUnionareforecasttoincreasein2025afterariseinwholesaleprices.AverageelectricitypricesfortheseindustriesintheEuropeanUnionremainroughlytwicethelevelsintheUnitedStatesand50%abovethoseinChina.Incontrast,backin2019,EUpriceswereonlyaround50%higherthanintheUnitedStatesand20%higherthaninChina.HigherelectricitycostsareexpectedtocontinuetoputcompetitivepressureonEUenergy-intensiveindustries.

Theneedforsecureandresilientpowersystemsismoreimportantthanever

Recentblackoutsaroundtheworldhighlightthecriticalimportanceofelectricitysecurityformoderneconomiesandsocieties.On25February2025,atransmissionsystemfailureinChileleft99%ofthecountrys20millionresidentswithoutpowerfor17hours.Justweekslater,on28April,acomplexseriesofeventstriggeredablackoutinSpainandPortugalthatlastedover10hours,affectingtensofmillionsofpeopleandbusinesses.Aspowersystemsexpandandbecomemorecomplexwithelectrificationspreadingintodifferentpartsoftheeconomy,ensuringasecureandreliableelectricitysupplyhasneverbeenmorevital.Robustgridinfrastructureandsecuresupplychains,combinedwithdiverseflexibilityresourcesandtechnicalstabilitysolutions,arekeypillarsofelectricitysecurity.Aspowersystemsevolve,itwillbeessentialforstakeholderstoadaptoperationalframeworksbyupdatinggridcodes,reserverequirementsandregulatorystructures.

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Demand

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Demand:Globalelectricityusetogrowstronglyin2025and2026

Globalelectricitydemandisforecasttoincreasebyanaverageannual3.3%in2025andby3.7%in2026,amoderationfrom4.4%in2024butstillsomeofthehighestgrowthratesobservedoverthelastdecade.ThisisaslightdownwardrevisionfromourpreviousforecastinFebruary2025of4%growthforthisyearand3.8%in2026.ThechangeispartlyduetotheIMF'sdowngradeoftheglobalGDPgrowthoutlookcomparedwithitsJanuary2025updateamidelevateduncertaintysurroundingtradetariffsandeconomicprospects.Despitethesedownsiderisks,strongdemandincreasesfromindustries,airconditioning(AC)anddatacentres,aswellassignificantstridesinelectrification,areexpectedtosupportgrowthinelectricityusethrough2026.Electricitydemandissettorisemorethantwiceasfastastotalenergydemandovertheforecastperiod.Overall,globalelectricityconsumptionwillreachanewhighofover29000terawatt-hours(TWh)in2026.

Year-on-yearpercentchangeinglobalelectricitydemand,1992-2026

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

GDPDemand

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Datafor2025-2026areforecastvalues.

Followingstrongsurgesinelectricitydemandin2024drivenbyintenseheatwavesandstrongeconomicactivityintheindustrialandservicessectors,thePeoplesRepublicofChina(hereafter,China)andIndiaareexpectedtoseemoremoderategrowthratesin2025.Bycontrast,USelectricitydemandissettoincreaseatafasterratethanin2024,boostedbypowerconsumptionfrom

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Demand

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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expandingdatacentres.Afteramodestreboundin2024followingtwoconsecutiveyearsofsignificantdecline,demandintheEuropeanUnionisforecasttocontinuerising,albeitatamoderatepaceastheindustrialsectorhasstillyettorecover.

Year-on-yearpercentchangeinelectricitydemandinselectedregions,2020-2026

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

-10%WorldChinaIndiaSoutheastAsiaUnitedStatesEuropeanUnion——Historicaldemand——UpdatedforecastPreviousforecast(Feb2025)

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Datafor2025-2026areforecastvalues.

DemandgrowthmoderatesinChina,IndiaandtheEUwhiletheUSpowersahead

Afterrisingby7%y-o-yin2024,weexpectelectricityconsumptioninChinatoincreasebyamoremoderate5%y-o-yin2025,followingsubduedgrowthof3.7%y-o-yinthefirsthalfof2025.EconomicheadwindsandtheimpactoftariffsonChineseexportssawdemandgrowthintheindustrysectorslowtoanaverage2.4%inthefirstsixmonthsoftheyear,partiallyoffsettingcontinuedstronggainsfromelectrification.Chinasservicessectorhasseensignificantgrowthinrecentyears,withexpandingACuse,EVcharging,datacentresand5Gnetworksdrivinggainsof7.1%y-o-yinH12025.Inaddition,electricityuseinthemanufacturingofnewenergyproductscontinuedtoriseatafastpace,asfactoryoutputofnewenergyvehiclesandsolarcellswasupby

36%and18%

y-o-y,respectively,inH12025,whileproductionofbatteriesroseby51%.Electricityconsumptionintheresidentialsectorincreasedby4.9%inH12025,underpinnedbygreaterpenetrationofappliances,whichsawretail

salesrise31%

,andasharpincreaseincoolingdegreedaysinJune.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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Year-on-yearchangeinelectricitydemandinselectedregions,2019-2026

TWh

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

Forecast

20192020202120222023202420252026

ChinaaIndiaaSoutheastAsiaaUnitedStatesaEuropeanUnionaOthersONetchange

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Datafor2025and2026areforecastvalues.

TherapidriseinelectricvehiclesalescombinedwiththerobustexpansionofcharginginfrastructurecontinuedtofurthersupportChineseelectricitydemandgrowthinthefirsthalfoftheyear.China,wheretheshareofelectricitydemandfromEVsreacheda

milestoneof1%

in2024,addedmorethan

5millionnew

electricvehicles

toitsdomesticfleetinH12025,up32%y-o-y,whileconsumptionfrompublicEVcharginginfrastructurewas50%higherthaninH12024.

HeatpumpsarealsosettobeakeydriverofChina’selectrificationintheindustryandbuildingssectors.Drivenbygrowingdemandforspace,waterandindustrialheating,Chinaplanstofurtheracceleratedeploymentofheatpumpswithnewpolicyinitiatives.TheActionPlanforPromotingHigh-QualityDevelopmentoftheHeatPumpIndustrywas

issued

inApril,whichdefinesnewobjectivestopromoteheatpumpsbothintermsofupgradingthedomesticindustryandofapplicationsonthedemandside,includingthereplacementofcoalandgasboilers.

China’selectricitydemandgrowthisexpectedtoaccelerateinthesecondhalfoftheyear,mainlyduetoarecoveryinindustryandalowerbaseeffectinH22024asthegainsweremoremutedcomparedtoH12024.The5%increaseforecastforthefullyear2025isrevisedlowerfromprojectionsinthe

Electricity2025

reportamidrisingeconomicuncertainties.Weexpectdemandtoacceleratein2026,reaching5.7%.Intermsofpeakload,followingtherecordhighin2024,theNationalEnergyAdministration(NEA)andtheChinaElectricityCouncil(CEC)expect

7%growththissummer

,potentiallyreaching1570GWintheeventofsevereheatwaves.Latestdatashowsthatpeakloadhitnewrecord-highs

three

times

bymid-July2025,reaching1506GW,assummertemperaturesinmostpartsofthecountrywereabovethesameperiodlastyear.

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ProductionindicesofselectedproductsinChina,2023-2025

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

Cement

Crudesteel

Tenkindsofnon-

ferrousmetals

Machine-madepaper

andpaperboards

Plasticproducts

Motorvehicles

Jan-23

Feb-23

Mar-23

Apr-23

May-23

Jun-23

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Aug-24

Sep-24

Oct-24

Nov-24

Dec-24

Jan-25

Feb-25

Mar-25

Apr-25

May-25

Jun-25

Newenergyvehicles

Photovoltaiccells

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:ValuesforJanuaryandFebruaryhavebeenestimatedbasedonthe2-monthaggregateprovidedbytheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.

Source:IEAanalysisbasedondatafromthe

NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina.

InIndia,theimpactofglobaleconomicuncertaintieson

industrialactivity

andcoolersummertemperaturescomparedto2024ledtoelectricitydemandincreasingby1.4%y-o-yinH12025.Demandisforecasttoriseatahigherratefortheremainderoftheyear,reachinganannualgrowthrateof4%.Weexpectdemandtogrowatarobust6.6%in2026,drivenbystrongeractivityinindustryandservices,andincreasingACstock.

Accordingto

estimates

fromtheMinistryofPowerfor2025,peakloadcouldreach

270GW(+8%y-o-y)andshifttoSeptemberinsteadofsummerthisyear,althoughthisshouldbefullymetbyrisinggenerationcapacity.Tomanagepeakloadgrowth,theIndiangovernmentis

implementing

ACstandardswhichwouldcaptemperaturesettingsbetween20oCand28oC,potentiallyreducingpeakloadbyupto60GWin2035.

IntheUnitedStates,electricitydemandincreasedby2.1%in2024,supportedbyeconomicgrowth,theexpansionofdatacentresandelectrification.Thesameunderlyingfactorscontinuedtoshapedemanddynamicsinearly2025,whichrosebyaround2.7%inthefirsthalfoftheyear.Demandisprojectedtomaintainstronggrowthovertheoutlookperiod,risingbyanaverageannualrateof2.3%in2025and2.2%in2026.Thismarksaslightupwardrevisionfromourpreviousforecastof2.1%in2025and1.9%in2026.

AmajordriverofthisdemandgrowthintheUnitedStatesistheexpansionofdatacentres,whichconsumedaround180TWhofelectricityin2024,accordingtotheIEA’s

EnergyandAIreport

.Investmentinartificialintelligenceanddatacentrescontinuestoaccelerate,withcompaniessuchas

Meta,Amazon,Alphabetand

Microsoft

committingtospendUSD320billionin2025,upfromUSD230billion

ElectricityMid-YearUpdate2025Demand

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thepreviousyear.Datacentreelectricitydemandisexpectedtosteadilyrisethrough2030,withconsumptionprojectedtoincreasebyapproximately

240TWh

relativeto2024levels.

Anothercatalystbehindelectricitydemandgrowthistheemergenceofnewlargeindustrialloadsinhightechnologymanufacturingsectorssuchassemiconductorfabricationandbatteryproduction.Accordingtothe

UnitedStatesCensusBureau

,totalconstructionspendinginmanufacturinghasrisensharplyinrecentyears,withspendinginQ12025morethandoublethatofQ12022.Onceoperational,thesenewandupgradedfacilitiesareexpectedtosignificantlyincreaseelectricitydemandinthemanufacturingsector.Electrificationofthetransportandheatingsectorsisalsosupportinggrowthinelectricitydemand.

Electriccars

soldintheUnitedStatesgrew10%y-o-yinQ12025.Followinggrowthinair-source

heat

pumps

of14%y-o-yin2024,salesrosefurther,albeitatamoremoderatepaceof9.5%inthefirstfivemonthsof2025.

TheEuropeanUnion’selectricitydemandrosebylessthan1%inthefirsthalfof2025,followinganincreaseof1.6%in2024.Weexpectelectricityconsumptiongrowthof1.1%y-o-yforfull-year2025,beforeacceleratin