ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Contents

Executivesummary 5

1.Aworldtransformed 7

Volatilityweighsontheeconomicoutlook 7

Regionalchallenges 11

2.Anageofuncertainty 21

Policyupheavalandcoordinationrisks 21

3.AIunleashed 27

Theageofdisruption 27

Adoptionandadaptation 31

References 35

Contributors 42

Acknowledgements 43

Cover:Unsplash

4

Executivesummary

TheMay2025editionoftheChief

EconomistsOutlookispublishedatatimeofextraordinaryvolatilityanduncertainty.

Sincethebeginningoftheyear,theglobaleconomicoutlookhasdarkened.Inthe

WorldEconomicForum’slatestsurveyof

chiefeconomists,conductedinthefirst

halfofAprilattheheightofrecentpolicy

developments,therewasunanimitythat

theconditionoftheglobaleconomyissettoweakenconsiderably.Notably,79%of

chiefeconomistssurveyedvieweddramaticchangestoUSpolicyaspartofalong-termstructuralshiftratherthanashort-term

disruption,amarkedincreasefrom61%inlate2024.

Tradepolicyhasbeenatthecentreofspirallingeconomicuncertainty,with

theannouncementinearlyAprilof

unprecedentedincreasesinbilateraltariffsbetweentheUSandmanyothercountries.Mosthavesincebeenpausedfor90days,whichhasledtoasignificanteasingof

short-termconcerns,particularlyinfinancialmarkets.However,underlyinguncertaintyaboutUSeconomicpolicypersists,anditremainstobeseenwhatwillhappenwhenthepauseselapse.

Againstthisbackdrop,itisdifficulttogaugetheeconomicoutlookwithgreatcertainty.Respondentstothechiefeconomists’

surveywereclearthatoverallgrowth

prospectswereweakening,withtheshift

intrajectorybeingmostpronounced

intheUS,wherethemajorityofchief

economistsexpectedweakorveryweak

growthfortheremainderof2025,alongsiderisinginflationandaweakeningdollar.In

Europe,whilegrowthremainssubdued,

respondentspointedtoemergingsignsofimprovement,drivenbyexpansionaryfiscalpolicyandcontinuedmonetaryeasing.

Chinaisalsopursuingfiscalexpansioninanefforttobolstergrowth,butthechiefeconomistsweredividedonwhetherit

wouldreachitstargetof5%GDP(grossdomesticproduct)growththisyear,givenarangeofbothexternalanddomestic

economicchallenges.

Lookingmorebroadlyattheeconomic

impactofrecentdevelopments,thechief

economistswerelargelyalignedintheir

assessmentthathighertariffsandpersistenttradetensionswouldfuelinflationand

suppresstradevolumes,andpersistent

uncertaintywouldinflictsignificanteconomicdamageontheglobaleconomy,including

throughparalyseddecision-makingand

heightenedrisksofpolicymiscoordination.

5

Amidthisturbulence,therapidadvanceofartificialintelligence(AI)isaddinganother

layerofcomplexityandopportunityto

theglobaleconomiclandscape.While

only45%ofchiefeconomistsexpectAI

tobecommerciallydisruptivein2025,a

similarproportionofrespondentsexpect

AItoadduptofivepercentagepointsto

globalGDPoverthenextdecade,while

athirdexpectevengreatergains.This

wouldbeasignificantboosttoglobal

economicactivitygivencurrentsluggish

growthrates.Innovationandaugmentationwerehighlightedaskeychannelsthrough

whichAIwilldrivegrowth.However,the

labourmarketoutlookismixed,with47%expectingnetjoblossesandonly19%

foreseeingnetgains,highlightingtheeffortsneededtoensurethatAIisnotashort-termboosttotheglobaleconomyfollowedby

alonger-termcontractionindemandandlivingstandardsbutawin-winscenarioforworkersandbusiness.

Businessesandgovernmentsarebeing

forcedtoadaptrapidlytothetwinchallengeofsurgingeconomicvolatilityandrapid

technologicaltransformation.Allofthe

chiefeconomistssurveyedexpectfirms

toreorganizesourcingandlogisticsto

reducetariffexposure,whilealargemajorityanticipatedelaysinstrategicdecision-

makingandinvestment.Respondentsalsoemphasizedtheimportanceof

increasingorganizationalagility,diversifyingsupplychainsandreskillingworkforces

tointegrateAI.Atatimeofprofound

disruption,organizationscanposition

themselvesforresilienceandexpansionbyaligningtechnologicalinnovationwithaclearunderstandingofthebroader

economiclandscape.

6

ChiefEconomistsOutlook

Shareofrespondents(%)

1.Aworldtransformed

Volatilityweighson

theeconomicoutlook

Theglobaleconomicoutlookhasdarkenedsincethestartoftheyear.Worsening

geopoliticaltensionsandrisingeconomicnationalismthreatenedinApriltoescalateintoaglobaltradewar,anddespitea

subsequentpauseineconomichostilities,thesituationremainsfraughtwithrisks.

Unprecedentedlevelsofuncertainty

threatentocausesignificanteconomicdamagethroughincreasedpolicy

coordinationrisks,stalleddecision-makingandthedisruptionofglobalvaluechains.1

TheWorldEconomicForum’slatestsurveyofchiefeconomistswasconductedin

thefirsthalfofApril,whentrade-relateduncertaintywasparticularlyhigh.The

unanimousviewofrespondentswas

thatglobaleconomicprospectsare

settoweakenconsiderablythisyear,

asignificantlygloomieroutlookcomparedtotheprevioussurveyinNovember

2024.Moreover,79%ofchiefeconomistssurveyed(upfrom61%inNovember)

seecurrentdevelopmentsaspartofalong-termshiftintheglobaleconomy,ratherthanashort-termdisruption.

Figure1.Theglobaleconomicoutlook

Lookingahead,whatareyourexpectationsforthefutureconditionoftheglobaleconomy?

100

50

1

82

4

3

1

9

1

7

2

0

12

0

4

1

5

4

2

8

5

75

3

1

7

3

7

5

6

6

1

50

4

3

3

9

100Aug23Nov23Apr24Aug24Nov24Apr25

Muchstronger

Somewhatstronger

Unchanged

SomewhatweakerMuchweaker

ChiefEconomistsSurveys

Note:ChiefEconomistsSurveysareconducted7-8weeksaheadofthelaunchofanewChiefEconomistsOutlook.

InMay’sedition,chiefeconomiststakealookattheremainderoftheyear.Inothereditions,theoutlookfortheyearaheadisgiven.Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

1TheEconomist.(2025a).

7

Figure2.USpolicyimpact

HowwouldyoucharacterizethelikelyimpactofthenewUSgovernmentpoliciesonthetrajectoryoftheglobaleconomy?

Nosigni?cantchangeShort-termdisruptionLong-termshift

USpolicyimpactontheglobaleconomy2179

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

Thekeyshocktotheglobaleconomythathasshapedthisoutlookwasaseriesof

historicchangesinUStradepolicy,which

haverockedconfidenceinthedurability

ofkeypillarsofthepost-WorldWarII

internationaleconomicorder.On2April,

theUSannouncedadramaticincreasein

importtariffs,includingabaselineof10%

onmostglobalgoods,aswellasmuch

higherratesonawiderangeofcountries,

peggedtotheirtradesurpluseswiththe

US.2Thisshocktotheglobaltradingsystemtriggeredfinancialmarketconvulsions.3It

wasfollowedbytheUSannouncinga90-daypauseonmostofthehighertariffsit

hadannounced,withthenotableexceptionofthoseonChineseimports,whichwere

pushedhigherto145%,triggeringasimilarescalationontheChinesesideaswellasthesuspensionofexportsofarangeof

criticalminerals.4However,amonthlater,

Shareofrespondents(%)

on12May,thesemeasureswerealso

pausedwiththeUSandChinaannouncinga90-dayreductionof115percentage

pointsontheirbilateraltariffs,andaliftingofChina’sexportrestrictionsonminerals.5

Whilethepausingofmostplannedtariffshasbroughtsignificantrelief,thepost-

pauseoutlookremainsuncertain,andthevolatilityofdecision-makinghastriggeredquestionsaboutthecontinuingreliability

andpredictabilityofeconomicpolicyintheUS.Asthelong-anticipatedriskofatradewarbetweentwoeconomicsuperpowerscamedangerouslyclosetobecominga

reality,trade-relateduncertaintyinthe

pastthreemonthshasbeenhigherthanatanytimesincerecordsbeganin1960.6InApril2025,itwasfaraboveCOVID-19pandemic-erahighs.7

2Foster,P.&Fleming,S.(2025).

3TheEconomist.(2025b).

4Bradsher,K.(2025);Smith,A.etal.(2025).

5TheWhiteHouse.(2025).

6Caldara,D.etal.(2020).

7Georgieva,K.(2025).

8

Figure3.Tariffsandtrade

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

3214532

39

50

33

5

Highertariffswillleadtohigherin?ationGlobaltradevolumeswillincrease

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

Atthetimeofwriting,itremainsunclear

howtariffswillevolve,inparticularwhen

the90-daypauseselapse.Thereislittle

doubtthatrecentdevelopmentshighlightthevulnerabilityoftheglobaleconomytoadversepolicyshocksandthattheirfollow-oneffectscanbesignificant.Inaddition

tohighlightingaweakeningoftheoveralleconomicoutlook,largemajoritiesofthe

Shareofrespondents(%)

chiefeconomistssurveyedsaidthathighertariffswouldleadtohigherinflation(77%)

andtostagnationordeclineforglobaltradevolumes(89%).ThislatterpointwasechoedbytheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO),

whichforecastthatthethreatenedtariffswouldcauseglobalmerchandisetradevolumestocontractby0.2%thisyear.8

Figure4.UStariffimpacts

Lookingattheremainderof2025,doyouexpectUStariffstocausesignificanteconomicdamage?

No

Yes–primarilyharmingthecountriestargetedbythetariffs

Yes–primarilyharmingtheUS

Yes–harmingboththeUSandthecountriestargetedbythetariffs

Yes–abroad-baseddragontheglobaleconomy

3

13

0

53

32

Percentofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

8WorldTradeOrganization(WTO).(2025).(Takingintoaccountmeasuresinplaceuntil14April).

9

Tariffscanimpactgrowthinnumerousways,includinginflationarypressures,weaker

consumersentimentandafall-offintrade

volumes.9Itisnotsurprising,therefore,thattheevidenceismountingthatrecenttradepolicyturmoilandtheabove-the-normtariffratesduringthepauseperiodareaffectingtheglobaleconomy.10Whileamajority

(53%)ofthesurveyedchiefeconomists

expectedtheeconomicdamageofthe

threatenedtradewartobemainlyfocusedontheUSandthecountriestargetedbyitstariffincreases,almostathird(32%)foresawabroaderdragontheglobaleconomy.

Noneexpectedthetariffstohaveno

economicdamage,andonly3%expected

damagetobelimitedtothecountriestargetedbythetariffs.

Thelevelofdamagethatisdonewill

dependbothondecisionstheUStakes

aboutitsplannedtariffsafterthe90-daypausesconcludeandonanyretaliatory

measuresthatothercountriesthendecidearewarranted.Onretaliation,57%ofchiefeconomistsexpectothercountriestorelyoncounter-tariffs,comparedto22%whoexpectanyretaliationtoinvolvenon-tariffbarriers,and19%whoexpecttheuseofothereconomicpolicylevers.Only3%

don’texpectcountriestoretaliateagainstUStariffs.

Figure5.RetaliationforUStariffs

Lookingattheremainderof2025,doyouexpectothercountriestoretaliateagainstUStariffs?

No

Yes–primarilybyraisingtheirowncounter-tariffs

Yes–primarilybyintroducingnon-tarifftradebarriers

Yes–primarilybymeansofothereconomicpolicies

3

19

22

57

Percentofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

9TheEconomist.(2025c).

10Beattie,A.(2025).

10

Asinprevioussurveys,thechiefeconomistscontinuetohighlightthegrowingimportanceofgeopoliticalandpoliticalfactorsasdriversoftheeconomicoutlook.Nearlyallofthosesurveyedanticipatethatpoliticalpolarizationwillleadtofurthersuboptimaleconomic

decision-makingthisyear(95%)andthat

economicnationalismwillbeanincreasinglyimportanteconomicdriver(94%).Thistwindynamichasbeenevidentinaconsistent

recentpatternofglobalelectoraldiscontent:inelectionsheldin2024,everygoverning

partyindevelopedeconomieslostvote

share,oftentopartiesespousingpopulist

nationalism.11Astradeandinvestmentflowsincreasinglyalignalongevolvinggeopoliticalfaultlines,chiefeconomistsexpectthepaceofgeoeconomicfragmentationtoacceleratefurtherthisyear(98%).

Figure6.Polarization,nationalismandfragmentation

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

Thepaceofgeoeconomicfragmentationwillaccelerate

Globally,politicalpolarizationwilllead

tosuboptimaleconomicdecision-makingEconomicnationalismwillincreasingly

driveeconomicdecision-making

36632

332471

55539

Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

Regionalchallenges

NorthAmerica

Figure7.USintheremainderof2025

Economicgrowth

In?ation

Fiscalpolicy

Monetarypolicy

86922

VeryweakWeakModerateStrongVerystrong

2179

VerylowLowModerateHighVeryhigh

462331

LooserUnchangedTighter

502921

LooserwUnchangednTighter

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

11WorldEconomicForum.(2025a).

11

Atthebeginningof2025,expectations

fortheUSeconomywereoptimistic12

buttheunexpectedextentofthepolicy

changesthatwereannouncedinAprilhascloudedtheoutlook.RespondingbeforetheannouncementofthepauseinUS-China

tariffs,almostfouroutoffiveofthechief

economistssaidtheyanticipatedweak

(69%)orveryweak(8%)growthforthe

remainderoftheyear.Thisisasignificant

softeningcomparedtoJanuary’sedition,

whentheexpectationwasformoderate

(47%)orstrong(44%)growth.Accordingtoearlyofficialestimates,inthefirstquarter,

realGDPdecreasedatanannualrateof

0.3%.13Whilethisheadlinefiguremasks

strongdomesticdemandandincludesa

riseinimportsasareactiontoexpected

tariffs,moretimelyindicatorspointtothe

beginningofaslowdown.Attheendof

April,USbusinessactivitygrowthwasata16-monthlowandbusinessexpectationsfortheyearaheadhaddroppedsharply.14Consumersentimenthadalsoplunged,15

andtheunusualcombinationofrisingbondyieldsandaweakeningdollarpointed

toinvestornervousness.16Atthetimeofwriting,therehasbeenaclearlypositivemarketresponsetotheannouncementoftheUS-Chinatariffpause.17

Figure8.USdollaroutlook

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

Thedollarwillweaken11136313

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

Justoverthree-quarters(76%)ofchief

economistssurveyedalsoexpectedthe

dollartoweakenfurtherovertheremainderof2025.Ifthisoccurred,itwouldadd

toinflationarypressures,and79%of

respondentswereanticipatinghighinflationthisyear,upfromjust15%inthepreviousedition.Accordingtoacloselywatched

indicator,inflationexpectationsinthe

UShavealreadyrisensharply,withyear-aheadinflationnowprojectedat7.3%,thehighestlevelsince1981,andlong-term

12InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025a).

13BureauofEconomicAnalysis.(2025).

14S&PGlobal.(2025a).

15UniversityofMichigan.(2025).

16TheEconomist.(2025d).

Shareofrespondents(%)

expectationsupto4.6%.18However,this

contrastswithadipintheheadlinerateofinflationto2.3%inApril.19Theoutlookfor

pricestabilitymayimproveifcurrenttariff

pausesareextended,althoughtheimpactofthehigher-than-norm“pauserates”isyettobefullyfactoredin.20Againstabackdropofslowinggrowth,recentinflationdynamicshavebeenmakingtheFederalReserve’s

policydecisionsmorecomplex.Inthelatestsurvey,halfofrespondentsexpectedashifttowardsloosermonetarypolicy.

17Sandlund,W.etal.(2025)

18UniversityofMichigan.(2025).

19BureauofLaborStatistics.(2025a).

20TheEconomist.(2025e).

12

ItisnotablethattheUSlabourmarkethasremainedrelativelyresilientthroughthe

turmoiloftheearlymonthsofthisyear.In

theviewofmanychiefeconomists,ifthe

labourmarketweretoweakensignificantly,itcouldsignalamoredisruptivephasefor

USgrowth.Therehavebeensomesigns

ofsoftening,butjobdataremainedsteadyinMarchandApril.21Moreover,despite

thesharpvolatilityintheUSeconomyin

recentmonths,therecontinuetobepositivesignalsforthemediumandlongterm.For

example,greenfieldforeigndirectinvestment(FDI)intotheUSissoaring,withthevalueofprojectssurgingby93%to$266billion,asaresultofsemiconductormegaprojects.22

ElsewhereinNorthAmerica,deeptrade

andsupplychainintegrationwiththeUS

meansthatbothMexicoandCanadaare

acutelyexposedtoshiftsinUSeconomic

policy.Thisvulnerabilityisreflectedinthe

latestprojectionsfromtheIMF,whichin

itslatestroundofforecasts–conducted

inearlyAprilwhenuncertaintywasata

peak–pointstogrowthinCanadaofjust

1.4%in2025,adownwardrevisionof

0.6percentagepointssinceJanuary.23In

Mexico,therepercussionsofthethreatenedUStradepolicypivotwereevenmore

pronounced,withtheIMFforecastingthatrealGDPwouldcontractby0.3%,asharpdowngradeof1.7percentagepoints.24

Europe

Figure9.Europeintheremainderof2025

Economicgrowth

In?ation

Fiscalpolicy

Monetarypolicy

3503611

VeryweakWeakModerateStrongVerystrong

315414

VerylowLowModerateHighVeryhigh

77149

LooserUnchangedTighter

76213

LooserwUnchangednTighter

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

TheoutlookfortheEuropeaneconomy

isshowingsignsofimprovement,albeitfromaweakbaseafteryearsoflacklustregrowth.Halfofchiefeconomistsstill

expectgrowthtoremainweakthisyear(inlinewithIMFprojectionsof0.8%

growthfortheEurozone25),andonly

11%expectstronggrowth,butthisstill

representsanotableimprovementfrom

previoussurveys.Onekeyfactorinthe

brighteningaroundEurope’seconomic

prospectsisthehopeforanexpansionaryshiftinfiscalpolicy,whichisnow

expectedby77%ofchiefeconomists.

21BureauofLaborStatistics.(2025b).

22UnitedNationsTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD).(2025a).

23InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).

24InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).

25InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).

13

Thisisconnectedtopolicydevelopments

intheUS,whichappeartohave

galvanizedthesenseamongEuropeanpolicy-makersthatactionisneededtobolstertheireconomies,securityandsocieties.26Germanyhastakenthe

leadinthisrespect.Thenewcoalitiongovernmenthasintroducedadramatic

overhaulofthecountry’sfiscalframework,includingarelaxationofconstitutionaldebtconstraintstoallowforsharpincreases

ininfrastructureanddefencespending.27Halfofthesurveyedchiefeconomists

expectthatthischangeinGermany’sfiscalstancewilldriveanaccelerationofgrowthacrossthecontinent.

Figure10.Germanfiscalpivot

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeGermanywilldriveanaccelerationofEuropeangrowth

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

Monetarypolicyisalsoexpectedtolend

somesupporttoEuropeangrowth,with

76%ofrespondentsanticipatingcontinuedmonetarypolicyloosening.TheEuropeanCentralBankcutitskeypolicyrateto

2.25%inApril,theseventhcutithasmade

Stronglyagree

318

29

45

5

Shareofrespondents(%)

sinceJune2024.28Ithasbeenhelpedbyafavourableinflationenvironment,whichwilllikelygiveittheroomtocontinueloweringrates:accordingtochiefeconomists,

inflationisexpectedtoremainmoderate(54%)orlow(31%)thisyear.

EastAsiaandthePacific

Figure11.Chinaintheremainderof2025

Economicgrowth

In?ation

Fiscalpolicy

Monetarypolicy

206911

VeryweakWeakModerateStrongVerystrong

274230

VerylowLowModerateHighVeryhigh

8713

LooserwUnchangednTighter

7327

LooserUnchangedTighter

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

26Foy,H.&Hall,B.(2025).

27Tagesschau.de(2025).

28Storbeck,O.&Smith,I.(2025).

14

ChinahastargetedGDPgrowthof5%

for2025.Thisisunchangedfromits

targetfor2024,butitislikelytobemoredifficulttoachievegiventheroilingoftheglobaltradelandscapeinrecentmonths.Amongchiefeconomistssurveyed,69%expectmoderategrowth,whileanother

20%anticipatethatgrowthwillremain

weakfortherestof2025.Thereisno

clearconsensusamongthemonwhetherChinawillultimatelyreachits5%growthtarget;theIMFrecentlyreviseditsforecast

forthisyeardownto4%,butthiswas

beforethede-escalationofUS-China

tradetensionsinMay.29Itremainstobe

seenhowmuchreliefthisde-escalation

willoffer,butitisimportanttonotethat

despitethetemporaryreductionofbilateraltariffsby115percentagepoints,theUS

isstillimposingadditional30%tariffsonmanyimportedgoodsfromChina(withChinamaintaininga10%tariffonmanygoodsimportedfromtheUS).30

Figure12.China’s5%target

Lookingaheadtotheremainderof2025,doyouagree/disagreewiththefollowing?

StronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagree

Chinawillreachits5%GDPgrowthtargetfor2025163032193Shareofrespondents(%)

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

Thevastmajorityofrespondentsexpect

looserfiscalandmonetarypolicyinChina,with87%and73%anticipatingmore

accommodativestances,respectively.

MonetarypolicyinChinamustcontendwithlongstandingdeflationaryrisks,reflectedinthefactthat69%ofrespondentsexpectloworverylowinflationthisyear.Onthefiscal

side,thegovernment’slatestfiscalpackageaimstosupportdemandbyraisingthe

deficitto4%andincreasingthespendingcapacityoflocalgovernments.31

ConsumerconfidenceinMarch2025

remainedwellbelowlevelsseeninthe

USandtheEurozone.32Therealestate

sectorcontinuestoweighontheoutlook,aseffortstoaddressexcessleverageandstabilizehousingmarketshaveresultedinsubduedinvestmentandongoingfinancialstressamongpropertydevelopers.33Atthesametime,China’sinnovationecosystemremainsdynamic,34withstronggrowthinartificialintelligence(AI)35andotherfrontiertechnologiesprovidingacounterbalance

tobroadereconomicchallenges.

29InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).

30Sevastopulo,D.etal.(2025).

31Li,Q.(2025).

32InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).(2025b).

33TheEconomist.(2025f).

34Allen,G.C.(2025).

35TheEconomist.(2025g).

15

Figure13.EastAsiaandthePacificintheremainderof2025

Economicgrowth

In?ation

Fiscalpolicy

Monetarypolicy

30619

VeryweakWeakModerateStrongVerystrong

31663

VerylowLowModerateHighVeryhigh

57

43

LooserwUnchangednTighter

52

48

LooserwUnchangednTighter

Source:ChiefEconomistsSurvey.(2025,April).

InthewiderEastAsiaandthePacific

region,economiesarenavigatinga

complexexternalenvironmentmarked

byslowingglobaltrade,supplychain

adjustmentsandgeopoliticaltensions.

Mostchiefeconomistsexpectgrowth

tobemoderate(61%)orweak(30%).

Inflationintheregionisexpectedtoremainmoderatebyalmosttwo-thirds(66%)of

respondents.TheBankofJapan’sgradualnormalizationofmonetarypolicyisbeingcloselyobserved,aspolicy-makersseektobalanceinflationmanagementwith

supportforeconomicactivity.36While

growthinthecountryremainsmuted,

therear