1、銷售管理實(shí)務(wù)提綱銷售目的和銷售流程銷售預(yù)測(cè)(mpsec3)分銷管理訂單處置客戶效力評(píng)價(jià)(mpsec8)、銷售分析不同戰(zhàn)略下銷售關(guān)注點(diǎn)參考售前培訓(xùn)資料分銷下的不同方式銷售的含義企業(yè)的價(jià)值來源消費(fèi)運(yùn)營(yíng)成果的實(shí)現(xiàn)銷售循環(huán)Post-Sales Pre-Sales Sales3-36不同制造戰(zhàn)略下的銷售管理方式設(shè)計(jì)庫(kù)存加工裝配運(yùn)輸交貨期加工庫(kù)存裝配運(yùn)輸加工裝配庫(kù)存運(yùn)輸采購(gòu)加工裝配運(yùn)輸交貨期交貨期交貨期Make-to- Stock 面向庫(kù)存消費(fèi)Engineer-to-Order 面向訂單設(shè)計(jì)Make-to- Order 面向訂單消費(fèi)Assemble- to-Order 面向訂單裝配MTSMake-to-S

2、tock按照預(yù)測(cè)消費(fèi)直接從廢品庫(kù)發(fā)貨交貨提早期最短關(guān)注：持庫(kù)本錢年費(fèi)用占存貨本錢的1525%存儲(chǔ)設(shè)備清點(diǎn)、搬運(yùn)、事務(wù)處置損壞、工程變卦引起的凝滯保險(xiǎn)和稅收喪失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)機(jī)本錢過保質(zhì)期貨物配送預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性ATOAssemble-to-Order收到客戶訂單后才開場(chǎng)裝配用于裝配的組件、零件等曾經(jīng)預(yù)先按照方案消費(fèi)并存放在倉(cāng)庫(kù)中 交貨提早期短關(guān)注：快速交貨客戶需求變卦MTOMake-to-Order只需收到客戶訂單后才開場(chǎng)消費(fèi)關(guān)注：消費(fèi)排程設(shè)備的靈敏性提早期長(zhǎng)ETOEngineer-to-Order收到客戶訂單后才開場(chǎng)設(shè)計(jì)和消費(fèi)關(guān)注：可用的技術(shù)資源可用的設(shè)備資源提早期最長(zhǎng)提綱銷售目的和銷售流程銷售預(yù)測(cè)(m

3、psec3)分銷管理 訂單處置客戶效力評(píng)價(jià)(mpsec8)需求方式相關(guān)需求 vs 獨(dú)立需求只需獨(dú)立需求產(chǎn)品需求預(yù)測(cè)相關(guān)需求產(chǎn)品不需求預(yù)測(cè)2-7要預(yù)測(cè)的對(duì)象是什么?運(yùn)營(yíng)規(guī)劃市場(chǎng)導(dǎo)向2至10年銷售與運(yùn)作方案S&OP產(chǎn)品線和產(chǎn)品族1至3年主消費(fèi)方案MPS終端產(chǎn)品月 預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)象時(shí)間跨度層次2-8預(yù)測(cè)原那么預(yù)測(cè)通常不會(huì)100%準(zhǔn)確都應(yīng)該包含一定的誤差預(yù)估對(duì)產(chǎn)品線或產(chǎn)品族的預(yù)測(cè)更加準(zhǔn)確時(shí)間越近,預(yù)測(cè)越準(zhǔn)確Product lines 產(chǎn)品線Product families 產(chǎn)品族Product groups 產(chǎn)品組2-9預(yù)備和搜集數(shù)據(jù)以與預(yù)測(cè)需求的一樣術(shù)語(yǔ)記錄數(shù)據(jù)記錄與數(shù)據(jù)相關(guān)的環(huán)境針對(duì)不同客戶群的需求進(jìn)展分

4、別記錄2-10定性技術(shù)是基于直覺和閱歷豐富人員的觀念的預(yù)測(cè)是客觀預(yù)測(cè)普通用于運(yùn)營(yíng)規(guī)劃和新產(chǎn)品的預(yù)測(cè) 通常用于中長(zhǎng)期預(yù)測(cè)2-11定量技術(shù)基于企業(yè)內(nèi)部隨時(shí)可供運(yùn)用的歷史數(shù)據(jù)的預(yù)測(cè)假設(shè)歷史會(huì)反復(fù)上演2-12外因技術(shù)基于外部目的的預(yù)測(cè)有助于預(yù)測(cè)企業(yè)整體需求或產(chǎn)品族需求2-13外因定量技術(shù)月需求1月922月833月664月745月756月847月848月819月7510月6311月9112月841月?2-14用過去幾個(gè)月的平均需求作為下一時(shí)期需求的預(yù)測(cè)例如，假設(shè)運(yùn)用過去三個(gè)月的挪動(dòng)平均： 假設(shè)1月份的需求是90，那么2月份的預(yù)測(cè)計(jì)算如下：挪動(dòng)平均2-1579.388.3挪動(dòng)平均預(yù)測(cè)能用來濾掉隨機(jī)變化期間

5、越長(zhǎng)越容易消除隨機(jī)變化假設(shè)存在一種趨勢(shì)，很難被發(fā)現(xiàn)當(dāng)處置的期間比較多時(shí)，手工計(jì)算非常繁瑣2-16指數(shù)平滑提供一個(gè)更新產(chǎn)品預(yù)測(cè)的常用方法對(duì)于需求穩(wěn)定的產(chǎn)品效果比較好對(duì)短期的預(yù)測(cè)能提供令人稱心的效果可以檢測(cè)市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)，但預(yù)測(cè)落后于趨勢(shì)2-19季節(jié)性衡量一個(gè)產(chǎn)品需求季節(jié)性變化的幅度大小涉及某一特定期間的平均需求和一切期間的平均需求2-20季 平均需求/100季節(jié)性指數(shù)1128/100=1.282102/100=1.02375/100=0.75495/100=0.95 Total=4.00計(jì)算季節(jié)性需求指數(shù)2-21季節(jié)性需求一切期間的平均需求2-22季節(jié)性需求需求單位時(shí)間季度監(jiān)控預(yù)測(cè)預(yù)測(cè)不能夠百分之百的

6、正確為什么要監(jiān)控預(yù)測(cè)？為了未來針對(duì)偏向做方案調(diào)整為了衡量真實(shí)需求與預(yù)測(cè)之間的差別為了改良我們的預(yù)測(cè)方法2-23偏向： 累計(jì)實(shí)踐需求能夠不等于預(yù)測(cè)。當(dāng)累計(jì)差別不等于0時(shí)，偏向就會(huì)產(chǎn)生。描畫預(yù)測(cè)誤差的兩種方法2-24描畫預(yù)測(cè)誤差的兩種方法(續(xù))2-25隨機(jī)偏向：需求與平均值相比，有正有負(fù)。上表的例子不存在偏移，但是每個(gè)月都有隨機(jī)偏向。差別提綱銷售目的和銷售流程銷售預(yù)測(cè)(mpsec3)分銷管理客戶訂單處置客戶效力評(píng)價(jià)(mpsec8)分銷的目的分銷的目的High levels of Customer ServiceTimely delivery lead timesBuffering against

7、demand uncertaintiesProviding the necessary variety of goodsItem and quantity accuracyHigh levels of Distribution EfficiencyMinimum transportation costsLevel production of replenishment ordersSize and location of storageAccurate inventory dataMinimum Inventory InvestmentMinimum necessary safety stoc

8、kOptimum order quantities to control cycle stock4-6分 銷 指效力或產(chǎn)品從消費(fèi)者經(jīng)過多級(jí)渠道向最終消費(fèi)者轉(zhuǎn)移的過程；分銷供應(yīng)鏈Source: Adapted from Ross, David F., Distribution Planning and Control (Chapman & Hill, 1996).供應(yīng)商制造商零售商零售商客戶 / 消費(fèi)者分銷功能4-7Distribution RelationshipsPrimary flow of InformationPrimary flow of Products and ServicesS

9、upplierManufacturerDistributorRetailer4-8Primary flow of Cash集團(tuán)總部工廠工廠辦事處辦事處辦事處辦事處方式異地商務(wù)，集中結(jié)算。辦事處完成銷售中的物流和商流的處置，客戶和總部總部統(tǒng)直接結(jié)算總部嚴(yán)厲控制庫(kù)存，占?jí)嘿Y金少，但結(jié)算周期較長(zhǎng)；集團(tuán)總部區(qū)域A分公司B分公司A工廠工廠辦事處辦事處集團(tuán)總部自營(yíng)專賣店工廠工廠自營(yíng)專柜加盟專賣店分支/代理商集團(tuán)總部工廠工廠分支機(jī)構(gòu)A代理商代理商代理商集團(tuán)總部事業(yè)部B事業(yè)部C分公司A分公司C分公司B分公司D辦事處B01工廠工廠辦事處B02事業(yè)部A分支機(jī)構(gòu)分公司方式異地商務(wù)，異地物流，異地結(jié)算。總部與分公司結(jié)

10、算，分公司和客戶進(jìn)展結(jié)算高效的區(qū)域市場(chǎng)，低額的配送費(fèi)用；但權(quán)益分散，不易構(gòu)成整體優(yōu)勢(shì)，資金周轉(zhuǎn)慢；連鎖零售方式制造業(yè)連鎖零售，自行消費(fèi)。低本錢擴(kuò)張，靈敏的區(qū)域市場(chǎng)戰(zhàn)略，快速調(diào)整產(chǎn)品戰(zhàn)略；流通業(yè)連鎖零售，總部采購(gòu)，分支擔(dān)任渠道開辟，配送中心擔(dān)任物流。混合方式：既自行消費(fèi)又外購(gòu)商品。代理商方式異地商務(wù)，異地物流，異地結(jié)算?？偛亢痛砩讨g直接結(jié)算，代理商跟客戶直接結(jié)算；主要是現(xiàn)款現(xiàn)貨，有銷售義務(wù)要求，定期考核，遵照一致銷售政策，允許退換貨代理商可銷產(chǎn)品的限制事業(yè)部方式產(chǎn)品事業(yè)部普通多個(gè)事業(yè)部采用一致的分銷渠道，分公司擔(dān)任對(duì)外結(jié)算，事業(yè)部和分公司之間內(nèi)部結(jié)算；獨(dú)立事業(yè)部普通有單獨(dú)的分銷渠道，獨(dú)立對(duì)外

11、結(jié)算；規(guī)定渠道可銷售商品、供貨網(wǎng)絡(luò)常見的幾種分銷方式分銷體系中的平安庫(kù)存Distribution centre operationreduce lead time to customerreduce costsTotal number of distribution centers increases = total amount of inventory increasesTotal cost = warehouse cost + carrying cost + transportation costDetermination of safety stock SS for DC =# of

12、DCsSS for 1DCWhere:SS = Safety StockDC = Distribution CentreFor example, if a company were carrying 500 units of safety stock at one distribution center and decided to add three additional distribution centers, the required safety stock for each distribution center would be:Accordingly, the total am

13、ount of safety stock for the company would equal:Total safety stock = 250 x 4(DCs) = 1,000Source: Arnold, J. R. Tony, Introduction to Materials Management, 3rd ed. (Prentice-Hall, 1998).3-11Level of Safety Stock RequiredSS for DC =# of DCsSS for 1DCWhere:SS = Safety StockDC = Distribution CentreDete

14、rmining the Number of Warehouses by Cost4-12Source: Adapted from Ross, David F. Distribution Planning and Control (1996, Kluwer Academic Publishers)COSTNUMBER OF WAREHOUSESTransportationCostsWarehouse CostsCarrying CostsTotal CostIncrease in first few number of DCThe cost of truckload (TL) and rail

15、carload (CL) will increaseThe cost of less than truckload (LTL) will decreaseThe total cost of transportation will decreaseTotal Distribution System CostTotal cost =Inventory costsInventory carrying costsWarehouse lease and utility costsPackaging equipment and materialsMaterial handling equipment an

16、d personnelCost increase with increase # of centersBusiness decisionCost of operation Vs opportunities cost of customer servicesTotal Distribution System Cost4-13COST IN DOLLARSNUMBER OF WAREHOUSESTransportationInventoryWarehouseTotal CostPackagingMaterials Handling4-14Qualitative Factors in Site Se

17、lectionInbound transportation costsOutbound transportation costsBuilding and land costsLocal tax structuresLocal labor costsOperating costsQuantitative Factors in Site SelectionCustomer baseSupply of skilled laborLabor relations, and competition for sameGovernment regulationsAvailability of transpor

18、tation systemsClimateSchools, medical, and recreation facilities (quality of life)Infrastructure4-15Qualitative Factor Analysis IllustratedTable of subjective score assessments*Score on a scale of 1 to 100*Weight on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 = least significant and 10 = most significant4-16(Best Si

19、te)4-17分銷方案系統(tǒng)再訂貨點(diǎn)法再訂貨點(diǎn)法Pull system using reorder pointPush systemDistribution requirements planning (DRP)Distribution resource planning (DRP II)Vendor-managed and vendor-owned inventory (VMI and VOI)Collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment (CPFR)Near production replenishment (for product

20、ion sites only) Reorder PointDemand constant and predictableROP = DDLT + SSSafety Stock covers demand variation in lead timeBasically reactive, looks at historyNo advance notice to the supplier4-18Pull System using Reorder PointDistribution Center 1Impact onCentralWarehousesupporting3 DCsPull from D

21、C 1Pull from DC 2Pull from DC 3Inventory at Central WarehouseInventoryInventoryInventoryDistribution Center 2Distribution Center 34-19OP2OP1SSOPSSOPSSOPPush SystemDC 1DC 2DC 3Regional Warehouse4-20Push System ConceptsTime Phased Order Point (TPOP)Data processing and communicationFeasibility of centr

22、alized push systemsSales replacement and base stock systems4-214-22Time-Phased Order Point ExampleSafety stock = 80Order quantity = 500Lead time = 2Periods12345678Forecast demand130160120260130120185115Scheduled receiptsProjected available37024080460200570450265150Net Requirements4010Planned order r

23、eceipts500500Planned order released500500Push System Allocation ExampleTotal units in the system= 225 + 195 = 420Minus the safety stock requirements= 420 - 60 = 360Days of supply= Total supply net of safety stock = 360 = 9 days supply Total Daily Usage 40Requirements = daily usage rate x days of sup

24、ply + safety stockQuantity to send = requirements oecurrent on handRequirementsQuantity to sendWarsaw= 10 x 9 + 15= 105 47 = 58Kobe= 7 x 9 + 10= 73 42 = 314-23Source: Adapted from Fogarty, Distribution Inventory Management (APICS, 1984).Memphis Central Warehouse Stock = 225Requirements WeekWarehouse

25、 Location/#Safety StockOn Hand12345Daily UsageManila1122840404040408Warsaw21547505050505010Kobe3104235353535357New Delhi41864606060606012Perth551415151515153Total60195200200200200200404-24Distribution Requirements PlanningPlanning replenishment in a distribution networkUsing “TPOP/MRP logicMultileve

26、l usageImplodes to master schedulingPlanning horizonReplanning frequencyDRP Exercise4-25Lot SizeQuantityLeadTimeWarehouse A1001Warehouse B502Warehouse C1002Central Supply3002WeekCentral Supply12345678Gross Reqmts.2001502001502502501000Schd. ReceiptsProj. Avbl 5503502000150200250150150Net ReqmtsPind

27、Ord Rcpts300300300Pind Ord Rises300300300WeekWarehouse A12345678Gross Reqmts.8080807080909090Schd. ReceiptsProj. Avbl 90103050800102030Net Reqmts705020908070Pind Ord Rcpts100100100100100100Pind Ord Rises100100100100100100WeekWarehouse C12345678Gross Reqmts.6060707080809090Schd. ReceiptsProj. Avbl 17

28、011050801030506070Net ReqmtsPind Ord Rcpts100100100100100Pind Ord Rises100100100100100WeekWarehouse B12345678Gross Reqmts.3030302030353535Schd. ReceiptsProj. Avbl 9060300300153045Net ReqmtsPind Ord Rcpts50505050Pind Ord Rises50505050Distribution Resource Planning (DRP II)The extension of distributio

29、n requirements planning into the planning of the key resources contained in a distribution system: warehouse space, workforce, money, trucks, freight cars, etc.-APICS Dictionary, 9th ed., 1998.4-27DRP System RequirementsPlanning BucketsForecasts by distribution centreNet change regenerationAutomatic

30、 replenishment order releaseAutomatic purchasing documentationAutomatic document printing and shippingVendor-Managed Inventory (VMI)Supplier has access to customers inventory dataThe vendor is responsible for maintaining customers inventory levelsReplenishment is triggered at a certain sales levelCo

31、ntracts specify ownership of material4-28CPFRCPFR: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and ReplenishmentThe collective sharing of information between partners in global supply chainsObjective is to eliminate the safety stocks caused by uncertainty of demand at each level in the supply chain4-29Exte

32、nded Supply Chain InterfacesRaw MaterialSupplier4-30RELIABLE OPERATIONSManufacturingManufacturerDistribution Ctr.CustomerDistribution Ctr.CustomerRetail StoreIntegratedSuppliersSynchronizedProductionContinuousReplenishmentAutomatedStore OrderingBill of Distribution and Bill of MaterialComponent 1Com

33、ponent 2Component 3Product AWarehouse1Warehouse2Warehouse3Supply warehouseBILL OF MATERIALBILL OF DISTRIBUTION3-31RW1RW2PRODUCTPACKAGEBOTTLECAPBULKBOXLABELINSERTDC1DC2DC3DC4DC5DC6ENT ITEM3-32DRP/MRP Interface with MPSDRPMPSMRP提綱銷售目的和銷售流程銷售預(yù)測(cè)(mpsec3)分銷管理客戶關(guān)系管理 客戶訂單處置客戶效力評(píng)價(jià)(mpsec8)Customer Order Manag

34、ementAccurate databaseEasy and effective entry systemsAccurate product or service availability informationRapid processingAllocationOrder confirmationReliable delivery3-25DatesDate of originalorder entryOriginal Requestedreceipt dateOriginal promised ship dateRevised requested receipt dateRevised pr

35、omised ship dateDate of customer order change3-26Order Cycle and Lead TimesOrderOrderInventoryOrderOrderPreparationReceiptAllocationShipmentShippingandandandandReceiptTransmittalEntryPickingInvoicingandClose2 days1 day1 day1 day4 daysTotal lead time = 9 days3-27External TimeInternal TimeInternal Tim

36、eInternal TimeExternal TimeSource: Adapted from Ross, D.F. Distribution Planning and Control (1996, Kluwer Academic Publishing)Traditional Supply ChainSupplierManufacturerDistribution CenterWholesalerRetailerConsumer3-28Quick ResponseSupplierCustomerSupplier3-293-30Technological Elements of Quick Re

37、sponse (QR)Forecasting/Planning SystemsAutomatic ReplenishmentInventory Management SystemsStreamlined Distribution Center Processinge-CommerceShipping Container MarkingAutomated Point of Sales Data3-31Monitoring Order StatusTimely and accurate dataManaging prioritiesMeasuring performanceProcessing c

38、hangesReplanning, if necessary Demand Management ActivitiesForecasting (Predicted Sales)Customer Service(Actual Sales)DemandManagementRule: Do not forecast what you can calculate.3-32Order PromisingAvailable-to-promiseCapable-to-promiseProducts and other end itemsService partsServices3-33提綱銷售目的和銷售流程

39、銷售預(yù)測(cè)(mpsec3)分銷管理客戶關(guān)系管理 客戶訂單處置客戶效力評(píng)價(jià)(mpsec8)客戶效力程度評(píng)價(jià)8-14從客戶數(shù)量的角度：保管的老客戶數(shù)量每年反復(fù)采購(gòu)的客戶數(shù)量/總客戶數(shù)量總客戶數(shù)量客戶增長(zhǎng)數(shù)量Customer Service Measurements (cont.)8-15質(zhì)量?jī)?nèi)部目的每百萬單位的次品數(shù)質(zhì)量本錢預(yù)防本錢評(píng)價(jià)本錢內(nèi)部失敗本錢外部失敗本錢員工質(zhì)量培訓(xùn)的小時(shí)數(shù)未方案的機(jī)器維修的小時(shí)數(shù)Customer Service Measurements (cont.)質(zhì)量外部目的質(zhì)量本錢外部失敗本錢平均無缺點(diǎn)時(shí)間Mean time between failures (MTBF)平均維修時(shí)