版權(quán)說(shuō)明：本文檔由用戶(hù)提供并上傳，收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方，若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán)，請(qǐng)進(jìn)行舉報(bào)或認(rèn)領(lǐng)
文檔簡(jiǎn)介
1
Morganstanley
RESEARCHFoundation
October13,202501:13PMGMT
GreaterChinaSemiconductors|AsiaPacific
InvestorPresentation:TSMCandAISemiPreviewinto3Q25Prints;Powering800VAI
MorganStanleyTaiwanLimited+
CharlieChan
EquityAnalyst
+88622730-1725
Charlie.Chan@
DanielYen,CFA
EquityAnalyst
+88622730-2863
Daniel.Yen@
MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+
DaisyDai,CFA
EquityAnalyst
+8522848-7310
Daisy.Dai@
MorganStanleyTaiwanLimited+
TiffanyYeh
EquityAnalyst
+88627712-3032
Tiffany.Yeh@
LucasWang
ResearchAssociate
+88622730-2875
Lucas.Wang@
MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+
EthanJia
ResearchAssociate
+8523963-2287
Ethan.Jia@
GreaterChinaTechnologySemiconductors
AsiaPacific
IndustryViewAttractive
MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith
companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley
Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley
Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis
report.
+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson
communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.
1
2
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
RefreshedAISemiOutlookAmidDeepSeekImpact
?Topideas:
?OW:
?AI:TSMC(TopPick),Aspeed,Alchip,KYEC,ASE,FOCI,Himax,ASMPT,AllRing
?Memory(AIripplingeffect):Winbond(TopPick),GWC,Phison,NanyaTech,APMemory,GigaDevice,Macronix
?Non-AI:
?Smartphone/Glasses:Novatek,OmniVision,Realtek
?ChinaWFE:NAURATech,AMEC,ACMR
?Specialty:Silergy,SGMicro,Yangjie
?EW/UW:MediaTek,UMC,ASMedia,Vanguard,WINSemi,Parade
?AIcannibalization:2H25recoveryisgradual.Historically,thedeclineinsemiinventorydayswasapositivesignalforsemistockpriceappreciation.
?DeepSeektriggersinferencingAIdemand,butaredomesticGPUssufficient?DeepSeekdemonstratingcheaperinferencing.However,shipmentsofNvidiaB30coulddilutethedomesticGPUsupplychain.
?Chinafabsupplyramp:Thishasledtoaprolongeddowncycleofmaturenodefoundryandnichememory.
?Long-termdemanddrivers:
?Techdiffusion:AIsemidemandreacceleration–thankstogenerativeAI–whichproliferatestodifferentverticalsoutsideofthesemiindustry.
?Techdeflation:Weexpect“priceelasticity”tostimulatedemandfortechproducts.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
3M
ValuationComparison:Foundry,Back-end,Memory,IDMandSemiCap
TickerCompany
Price10/9/2025
Curr
ency
PriceTarget
Upside/Downside
Rating
Dividend
Yield(%)
FCF
Yield
(%)
Market
Cap
(US$M)
Avg.Daily
Trading
(US$M)
P/ERatio(x)
EPSGrowth
ROAE
P/BRatio(x)
20242025e2026e
20242025e2026e
20242025e2026e
20242025e2026e
Foundry
2330.TWTSMC
1,440.0
TWD
1,388.0
-4%
O
1.5%
1.8%
1,178,953
1,245.1
31.8
24.6
21.1
40%
29%
17%
30%
31%
30%
8.7
6.9
5.7
2303.TWUMC
45.7
TWD
48.0
5%
E
5.7%
5.3%
18,198
50.6
12.1
17.3
12.8
-23%
-30%
35%
13%
9%
11%
1.5
1.5
1.4
0981.HKSMIC
83.5
HKD
40.0
-52%
E
0.0%
-5.0%
69,306
817.3
NM
NM
NM
-46%
105%
72%
2%
5%
8%
NM
NM
NM
5347.TWOVanguard
102.0
TWD
82.5
-19%
U
4.0%
3.1%
5,393
20.1
26.8
23.5
24.4
-14%
14%
-3%
12%
12%
11%
2.5
2.5
2.5
1347.HKHuaHong
85.2
HKD
38.0
-55%
E
1.5%
-4.6%
18,723
304.2
NM
NM
NM
-82%
189%
111%
1%
3%
5%
NM
NM
NM
6770.TWPSMC
30.3
TWD
22.0
-27%
E
0.0%
5.6%
3,992
28.8
NM
NM
NM
224%
4%
-95%
-9%
-10%
-1%
1.4
1.5
1.5
3105.TWOWINSemi
101.5
TWD
70.0
-31%
U
0.0%
-3.8%
2,264
13.6
56.2
39.8
30.1
NM
41%
32%
2%
3%
4%
1.1
1.2
1.2
8086.TWOAWSC
115.0
TWD
65.0
-43%
U
0.9%
-3.9%
714
14.2
43.4
71.1
48.0
NM
-39%
48%
7%
4%
6%
2.9
2.9
2.8
Mean:
1.7%
-0.2%
42.1
44.8
34.1
17%
39%
27%
7%
7%
9%
3.0
2.8
2.5
Median:
1.2%
-1.0%
31.8
24.6
24.4
-19%
22%
34%
5%
4%
7%
2.0
2.0
2.0
Memory
603986.SSGigaDevice
225.5
CNY
234.0
4%
O
0.3%
4.1%
20,805
664.7
136.2
81.7
47.7
585%
67%
71%
7%
10%
16%
9.0
8.2
7.2
2408.TWNanyaTech
98.5
TWD
90.0
-9%
O
0.0%
13.6%
9,586
157.4
NM
380.1
6.8
-59%
-128%
NM
-2%
0%
24%
1.8
1.9
1.5
2344.TWWinbond
43.5
TWD
42.0
-3%
O
6.3%
16.6%
6,174
93.4
NM
NM
25.3
-123%
-522%
NM
0%
-1%
8%
2.1
2.0
1.9
8299.TWOPhison
882.0
TWD
800.0
-9%
O
3.7%
1.6%
5,732
49.6
24.7
37.9
19.6
102%
-35%
94%
17%
10%
18%
3.7
3.6
3.2
SIMO.OSiliconMotion
94.4
USD
88.0
-7%
O
3.7%
2.1%
3,192
25.4
31.4
24.4
18.8
64%
29%
30%
13%
16%
18%
4.1
3.7
3.3
2337.TWMacronix
27.5
TWD
29.0
5%
O
0.0%
17.2%
1,610
16.9
NM
NM
307.5
90%
8%
-105%
-7%
-9%
0%
1.2
1.3
1.5
Mean:
2.3%
9.2%
64.1
131.0
71.0
110%
-97%
23%
5%
5%
14%
3.7
3.5
3.1
Median:
2.0%
8.8%
31.4
59.8
22.4
77%
-13%
51%
4%
5%
17%
2.9
2.8
2.5
Backend
3711.TWASEH
179.0
TWD
188.0
5%
O
2.7%
6.0%
24,526
82.9
24.2
21.5
14.5
1%
13%
48%
10%
10%
14%
2.2
2.1
2.0
600584.SSJCET
47.0
CNY
23.5
-50%
U
0.3%
5.7%
11,684
359.5
52.0
44.3
33.4
9%
17%
33%
6%
6%
8%
2.8
2.7
2.5
601231.SSUSI
22.9
CNY
15.5
-32%
E
1.4%
-7.4%
7,028
65.1
30.6
31.4
20.1
-15%
-3%
56%
9%
9%
13%
2.8
2.7
2.4
2449.TWKYEC
176.0
TWD
188.0
7%
O
3.6%
1.6%
6,795
145.2
27.8
20.0
18.7
33%
39%
7%
19%
24%
22%
5.0
4.4
3.9
Mean:
2.0%
1.5%
29.2
25.7
19.4
7%
16%
36%
11%
12%
14%
3.2
3.0
2.7
Median:
2.1%
3.7%
29.2
25.7
19.4
5%
15%
40%
10%
10%
13%
2.8
2.7
2.5
PowerSemis/IDM
688396.SSCRMicro
58.7
CNY
40.0
-32%
E
0.3%
1.6%
10,696
70.6
NM
50.9
37.6
-44%
84%
35%
3%
6%
8%
3.2
3.0
2.8
600460.SSSilanMicro
32.5
CNY
20.0
-39%
U
0.4%
2.1%
7,523
218.7
NM
84.8
38.0
-714%
190%
123%
2%
5%
9%
3.9
3.8
3.4
603290.SSStarPower
115.8
CNY
105.0
-9%
O
1.7%
0.0%
3,852
95.7
50.8
45.4
35.2
-57%
12%
29%
8%
9%
10%
4.1
3.8
3.5
300373.SZYangjie
70.1
CNY
80.0
14%
O
2.2%
-2.8%
5,269
128.5
38.0
29.6
21.4
5%
28%
38%
11%
13%
16%
4.1
3.7
3.2
Mean:
1.2%
0.2%
44.4
52.7
33.1
-203%
79%
56%
6%
8%
11%
3.8
3.6
3.2
Median:
1.1%
0.8%
44.4
48.2
36.4
-51%
56%
37%
5%
7%
10%
4.0
3.7
3.3
Semicap/Equipment/Materials/SupplyChain
002371.SZNAURA
458.1
CNY
450.0
-2%
O
0.8%
-0.9%
45,841
461.2
43.3
39.8
34.7
40%
9%
15%
20%
21%
23%
10.2
8.7
7.3
688012.SSAMEC
319.1
CNY
250.0
-22%
O
0.0%
11.8%
27,845
367.4
NM
90.1
60.0
-10%
37%
50%
9%
11%
14%
10.2
9.1
7.9
6488.TWOGlobalWafers
495.5
TWD
608.0
23%
O
4.8%
1.7%
7,481
55.2
24.1
23.6
16.5
-54%
2%
43%
13%
11%
16%
2.6
2.8
2.5
0522.HKASMPacific
95.4
HKD
80.0
-16%
O
0.9%
6.5%
4,848
20.3
114.8
79.8
25.1
-52%
44%
218%
2%
3%
10%
2.5
2.4
2.3
3702.TWWPG
62.6
TWD
70.0
12%
E
4.6%
-27.2%
3,319
13.9
14.5
11.6
9.5
-11%
26%
22%
9%
11%
13%
1.2
1.2
1.1
688234.SSSICC
84.9
CNY
67.1
-21%
E
0.3%
NA
5,068
103.7
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
3%
0%
2%
6.9
6.8
6.7
ACMR.OACMResearch
41.0
USD
33.8
-18%
O
2.3%
-0.7%
2,583
47.4
26.4
20.0
15.8
31%
32%
26%
15%
12%
14%
2.4
2.1
1.9
3680.TWOGudengPrecision
339.0
USD
340.0
0%
E
1.7%
-6.1%
1,026
14.8
27.4
41.0
15.7
19%
-33%
160%
11%
7%
16%
2.8
2.7
2.3
6187.TWOAllRingTech
376.0
USD
450.0
20%
O
0.4%
1.1%
1,138
40.9
25.8
23.5
19.5
754%
10%
21%
29%
22%
23%
5.5
4.9
4.2
3363.TWOFOCI
372.5
TWD
415.0
11%
O
0.2%
4.8%
1,219
56.5
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
NM
-2%
3%
11%
NM
NM
NM
Mean:
1.6%
-1.0%
39.5
41.2
24.6
90%
16%
70%
11%
10%
14%
4.9
4.5
4.0
Median:
0.8%
1.1%
26.4
31.7
18.0
4%
18%
35%
10%
11%
14%
2.8
2.8
2.5
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates;dataasofOctober9,2025.
MorganStanleyResearch3
4
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
3M
ValuationComparison:Fabless,PowerSemis,FPGAandAnalog
Ticker
Company
Price10/9/2025
Curr
ency
PriceTarget
Upside/Downside
Rating
Dividend
Yield(%)
FCF
Yield
(%)
Market
Cap
(US$M)
Avg.Daily
Trading
(US$M)
P/ERatio(x)
EPSGrowth
ROAE
P/BRatio(x)
20242025e2026e
20242025e2026e
20242025e2026e
20242025e2026e
Fabless
Smartphone/WirelessSemis
2454.TW
MediaTek
1,345.0
TWD
1,388.0
3%
E
5.4%
0.9%
66,474
302.9
20.120.818.2
38%-3%14%
27%25%27%
5.25.24.5
603501.SS
OmniVision
150.0
CNY
170.0
13%
O
0.5%
2.1%
24,962
428.8
54.940.429.7
485%36%36%
15%17%20%
7.46.45.4
300782.SZ
Maxscend
84.3
CNY
55.00
-35%
U
0.4%
-2.2%
6,250
114.2
NMNM52.9
-64%-18%160%
4%3%8%
4.44.34.0
603160.SS
Goodix
85.1
CNY
65.0
-24%
U
0.5%
-1.4%
5,418
71.2
64.666.259.4
266%-2%11%
7%7%7%
4.54.34.1
6462.TWO
Egis
123.0
TWD
130.0
6%
E
0.7%
-16.3%
354
14.5
NM69.915.7
28%-114%346%
-11%2%6%
1.11.11.0
IP/DesignService
3661.TW
Alchip
3,515.0
TWD
4,288.0
22%
O
0.7%
5.1%
9,063
274.7
44.548.024.5
83%-7%96%
22%15%26%
NMNMNM
301269.SZ
EmpyreanTechnology
131.8
CNY
115.0
-13%
E
0.1%
NA
9,943
114.0
NMNMNM
-45%184%102%
2%6%11%
NMNMNM
3443.TW
GUC
1,515.0
TWD
1,480.0
-2%
O
0.0%
4.7%
6,411
92.1
59.152.541.3
-2%13%27%
33%32%34%
NMNMNM
6531.TW
APMemory
392.5
TWD
415.0
6%
O
2.1%
4.1%
2,006
33.8
40.3NM29.5
9%-75%453%
16%4%20%
6.16.55.5
6533.TW
Andes
295.0
TWD
608.0
106%
O
0.0%
0.3%
472
8.6
NMNMNM
-102%-5828%-552%
0%-2%10%
3.13.22.8
PC/Cloud/DisplaySemis
3034.TW
Novatek
424.0
TWD
550.0
30%
O
5.6%
14.3%
8,147
42.0
12.716.815.5
-13%-24%8%
30%23%24%
3.83.93.7
2379.TW
Realtek
555.0
TWD
650.0
17%
O
3.1%
5.0%
8,988
40.7
18.620.517.2
67%-9%19%
32%25%27%
5.44.94.3
688008.SS
Montage
157.1
CNY
++
#VALUE!
+
0.4%
-0.7%
24,909
538.4
126.2NMNM
214%NANA
13%++++
15.7NANA
5269.TW
ASMedia
1,460.0
TWD
1,600.0
10%
E
1.0%
0.9%
3,440
47.2
28.423.019.5
60%24%18%
14%14%14%
3.33.02.7
5274.TWO
Aspeed
5,690.0
TWD
6,100.0
7%
O
1.7%
1.3%
6,790
73.0
83.660.847.9
155%37%27%
54%56%58%
NMNMNM
4966.TWO
Parade
781.0
TWD
747.0
-4%
E
2.1%
1.6%
1,955
38.1
24.022.018.5
27%9%19%
12%12%13%
2.82.62.4
2458.TW
ElanMicro
132.5
TWD
120.0
-9%
E
5.1%
9.6%
1,198
8.9
14.017.415.6
27%-20%12%
29%22%24%
3.93.93.6
HIMX.O
Himax
9.1
TWD
8.8
-3%
O
5.7%
8.3%
1,554
9.6
19.921.819.5
58%-9%12%
9%9%10%
1.81.81.8
AnalogIC
6415.TW
Silergy
249.0
TWD
378.0
52%
O
0.2%
1.3%
3,035
23.0
42.228.317.3
212%49%64%
7%10%14%
2.82.62.3
300661.SZ
SGMicro
85.2
CNY
90.0
6%
O
0.4%
1.1%
7,283
210.7
NM82.650.2
80%-1%65%
12%12%19%
NMNMNM
MCU
4919.TW
Nuvoton
62.8
TWD
60.0
-4%
E
3.4%
14.5%
832
5.7
NMNM20.4
-91%-94%9418%
1%0%8%
1.71.71.6
688018.SS
Espressif
216.2
CNY
211.0
-2%
O
0.8%
20.3%
4,623
120.3
NM70.849.4
149%41%43%
17%21%26%
NMNMNM
300327.SZ
SinoWealth
27.4
CNY
17.7
-35%
U
0.8%
6.6%
1,293
46.1
69.849.332.9
-28%41%50%
7%10%14%
5.24.84.4
FPGA
002049.SZ
UnigroupGuoxin
92.8
CNY
50.0
-46%
U
0.3%
1.5%
10,951
286.6
66.842.733.7
-53%57%27%
10%14%15%
6.45.64.9
1385.HK
ShanghaiFudan
45.1
HKD
32.8
-27%
O
0.6%
0.1%
6,905
37.8
64.444.433.1
-20%45%34%
10%13%15%
6.35.54.7
688107.SS
Anlogic
32.3
CNY
32.4
0%
E
0.0%
-1.0%
1,800
25.8
NMNMNM
4%-66%-133%
-15%-6%2%
NMNMNM
Mean:
1.6%
3.2%
48.342.130.2
56%-219%400%
14%14%18%
4.94.03.6
Median:
0.7%
1.4%
44.543.529.5
27%-2%31%
12%13%15%
4.44.34.0
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates;dataasofOctober92025.
MorganStanleyResearch5
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
TSMC3Q25ResultsPreview
ScenariobreakdownforupcomingTSMCresults
3Q25earningspreview:MSvs.consensusestimates
3Q25
4Q25
(NT$bn)
Guidance
Preliminary
MSEst.
Consensus
Guidance
MSEst.
Consensus
Revenue
US$31.8-33.0bn
993
950
988
933
Q/Q
+8%atmid-pointinUSD
6.3%
1.8%
-0.5%
-1.8%
Y/Y
30.7%
25.1%
13.7%
7.4%
GM(%)
55.5%-57.5%
58.4%
56.9%
58.1%
56.6%
OpM(%)
45.5-47.5%
49.5%
46.9%
48.8%
2.6%
EPS(NT$)
16.30
15.18
15.99
14.46
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
6
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
TSMCWaferPriceandGrossMarginTrend
TSMC'swaferpricingtrend
TSMCGManddepreciationtrend-55%shouldbethefloorwithwaferpricehikein2026
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
MorganStanleyResearch7
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
Apple’sA20ProcessorstoAdoptTSMCN2andWMCMPackagingin2H26
TSMC2025ecustomerbreakdown
EstimatedWMCMstructureforAppleA20processoratN2
AppleSilicon(AseriesandMseries)accountsfor20-25%ofTSMC‘stotalrevenuewilladoptN2soon
Source:TSMC,MorganStanleyResearch
8
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
TSMC’sWaferDemandbyCustomers
WaferdemandforTSMC2nm–Applethemajor
customer
WaferdemandforTSMC4/5nm–Consumer/AIGlassesmayshowupsidein2026
Source:MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates
WaferdemandforTSMC3nm–NvidiaRubin
torampin2026
WaferdemandforTSMC7nm–someareusedtoshareNvidia’s4nmAIGPUproduction
MorganStanleyResearch9
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
Moore’sLaw2.0–EnergyEfficiencyIstheKeyFeature
TSMCperformanceperwatt(powerefficiency)
couldbeimprovedby15%-20%foreachnode
migration
TSMCA16NovelBacksidePowerDelivery
Solution
Source:TSMC,MorganStanleyResearch
10
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
PoweringAI:WhichVendorIsBetterPositionedfor800VHVDCOpportunityfortheGaNMarket?
Weexpectdata-center-relatedGaNTAMtoreachUS$1.2bnby2030e
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
AIacceleratorshipment(mn)
11
13
14
15
16
16
PowerperGPU(W)
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,150
3,300
3,500
TotalGPUPower(GW)
16
25
32
35
40
45
800Vadoption(as%oftotalAI)
0%
2%
9%
23%
50%
80%
GaNPowerSemi$perKW(GPUpower)
-
38
36
34
33
31
800VGaNTAM(US$mn)
-
19
103
279
647
1,119
48VGaNTAM(US$mn)
210
350
319
210
350
70
TotaldatacenterGaNTAM(US$mn)
210
369
422
489
997
1,189
Infineonstandsoutasacomprehensivepowersemivendor
Source:MorganStanleyResearch.Note:"+"representsfavorable,"="representsneutral,"-"representsleastfavorable
MorganStanleyResearch11
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
SiC:6/8-inchPricingDeclineFurther,WhileARGlassandAIDataCentersToBeFutureDriver
6/8-inchSiCsubstratepricetrend
MetaOrion,utilizesaMicroLED+SiCwaveguidedisplay
solution
WeexpectSiCpenetrationinEVstogrowto45%by2027
SiCusedin800VDataCenters
1stStage(Grid-800V)
?UHVSiC
3ndStage(48V-AI)
?80-200VGaN
?80-200VGaN
2ndStage(800V-48V)
?HVGaN&SiC
Source:Meta,Navitas,Yole,companydataMorganStanleyResearchestimate
12
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
KeyInvestmentThesis:WhetherAIGPUorAIASICWins,TSMC(themajorfoundrysupplier)CanWin
P/Emultiple-NVIDIAre-ratedin2023
P/Emultiple-ASICgrouponceexceededNVIDIA,and
thende-ratedwithNVIDIA
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearch.Note:AlternativeAIsemisgroup:AMD,Alchip,GUC,Andes,Marvell,Broadcom.AIsemienablersgroup:TSMC,Synopsys,Cadence,ASML,BESI,ASMPT,Ibiden,KYEC,Advantest.
MorganStanleyResearch13
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
MemoryStockPricesAreaLeadingIndicatorforLogicSemis;WeHaveanAttractiveIndustryViewonGCSemis
MemorysharepriceYoYpeakleadslogicsemis
TSMC:One-yearforwardP/Echart
Sharepriceperformanceoverthepastthreeyears
(TSMCvs.SKhynix)
WeestimateAIsemistoaccountfor~34%of
TSMC's2027erevenue
Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.Resultsshowndonotincludetransactioncosts.Source:FactSet,companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.
14
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
Commodity/BroaderSemiCycle
MorganStanleyResearch15
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
Logicvs.MemoryCycleDecoupling
Logicsemifoundryutilizationat70-80%in1H25-
Stillnotfullyrecovered
Semisupplychaindaysofinventorydeclinedin2Q25
Source:SIA,FactSet,companydata,MorganStanleyResearch(e)estimates.
ExcludingNVIDIA'sAIGPUrevenue,non-AIsemigrowthwasslowatonly10%Y/Yin2024
Historically,wheninventorydayswentdown,
semistockindexwentup
16
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
DDR4ShortagePersistinginto2H26
Quarterlysupplyanddemandsummary
Quarterlysupplybreakdown(mnGb)
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimate
Quarterlydemandbreakdownbyproduct(mnGb)
Quarterlyoversupply/undersupplyratiovs.
NanyaandWinbondpricingQ/Qchange
MorganStanleyResearch17
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
ExpectNORFlashLSDUnderSupplyinto2026;SLCNANDDouble-digitPercentageSupplyShortage
NORflashdemandandsupplygrowthratesNORflashdemandandsupplygrowthrates
Growthrate
15%
Growthrate
20%
10%
5%
10%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%20122014201620182020202220242026DemandgrowthTotalwafersupplygrowth
0%
-10%20192020202120222023202420252026
DemandgrowthTotalwafersupplygrowth
NANDwaferspotpricingandmoduleprices
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
4.0
Jun-19
Dec-19
Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21
256GBSSDModule(US$)
Jun-22
Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24
Jun-25
TLC256GbWaferSpot(RHS;US$)
Source:ChinaFlashMarket,MorganStanleyResearchestimate
18
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
GWC(6488.TWO):RawWaferUpcycleMayFollowGiventheStrongMemoryWaferConsumption
Customer12-inchwaferinventory(logicvs.memory;August7,2025)
Source:Sumco,MorganStanleyResearch
MorganStanleyResearch19
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
ChinaAIandDomesticGPUSupply
20
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
ChinaDeepSeek:InferenceDemandIstheKeyDriverofFutureCapex
Weforecastthetop6companies’capextogrow62%YoYtoRmb373bn
Source:Companydata,MorganStanleyResearchestimates.
MorganStanleyResearch21
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
China-DomesticGPUUpdates
Huaweichip
SMIC7nmand10nm/14nmrevenuemix
ChinaGPUperformancecomparisontable
Brand
ProductNode
FP16(TFLOPS)
FP8/Int8(TFLOPS)HBMusage
HBMmemory(GB)
HBMbandwidth(GB/s)
GPU-GPUnetworkingbandwidthTDP(W)
China
HuaweiCambricon
HygonIluvatarEnflameAlibaba
Ascend910BAscend910CMLU370MLU590DeepComputeIIIBigIslandI20pingtouge
SMIC7nm(n+2)SMIC7nm(n+2)7nm7nm7nmTSMC7nmTSMC7nm12nm
32080072256192147128205
6401,600192512392294
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無(wú)特殊說(shuō)明，都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請(qǐng)下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等，如果需要附件，請(qǐng)聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶(hù)所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙，網(wǎng)頁(yè)內(nèi)容里面會(huì)有圖紙預(yù)覽，若沒(méi)有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒(méi)有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫(kù)網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲(chǔ)空間，僅對(duì)用戶(hù)上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理，對(duì)用戶(hù)上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯，并不能對(duì)任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容，請(qǐng)與我們聯(lián)系，我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時(shí)也不承擔(dān)用戶(hù)因使用這些下載資源對(duì)自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 難點(diǎn)解析人教版八年級(jí)上冊(cè)物理《聲現(xiàn)象》專(zhuān)題訓(xùn)練練習(xí)題（含答案詳解）
- 2025國(guó)考河北氣象局行測(cè)模擬題及答案
- GF銀行S開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度管理優(yōu)化研究
- 2025國(guó)考北京郵政管理局申論對(duì)策建議模擬題及答案
- 難點(diǎn)詳解人教版八年級(jí)上冊(cè)物理物態(tài)變化《升華和凝華》同步測(cè)試練習(xí)題（含答案詳解）
- 2025國(guó)考大慶市海事管理崗位申論高頻考點(diǎn)及答案
- 考點(diǎn)攻克人教版八年級(jí)上冊(cè)物理《聲現(xiàn)象》專(zhuān)項(xiàng)練習(xí)試卷（附答案詳解）
- YVPGP-生命科學(xué)試劑-MCE
- 山西民歌《夢(mèng)夢(mèng)》演唱實(shí)踐中“手、眼、身、步、‘法’”的具體體現(xiàn)
- 氟鈦酸鉀生產(chǎn)線(xiàn)項(xiàng)目施工方案
- 餐飲食堂競(jìng)標(biāo)標(biāo)書(shū)
- 肛腸科手術(shù)及護(hù)理課件
- 蟻群算法課件完整版
- 大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)《實(shí)變函數(shù)》電子教案
- 烏魯木齊出租車(chē)區(qū)域考試題
- YY/T 0640-2008無(wú)源外科植入物通用要求
- GB/T 29531-2013泵的振動(dòng)測(cè)量與評(píng)價(jià)方法
- GB/T 2637-2016安瓿
- FZ/T 13001-2013色織牛仔布
- 供應(yīng)商質(zhì)量能力提升計(jì)劃課件
評(píng)論
0/150
提交評(píng)論