GoldmanResearchSachs

EconomicsResearch10October2025|6:35PMHKT

China:SixKeyTopicsofDiscussionsDuringOurRecentMarketingTrips

InlateSeptemberthroughearlyOctober,wemetwithequity,fixedincome,and

commoditiesclientsinLondon,Paris,Doha,Riyadh,Dubai,andAbuDhabi.Wealso

AndrewTilton

-9t-

GoldmanSachs(Asia)LLC.

hadvirtualmeetingswithBrazilianinvestors.Thereweresixkeyfocusareasinthesediscussions.Belowwesummarizeclients'thinkingaswellasourviewsregarding

thesesixtopics.

1.Slowinggrowthandthelikelihoodofadditionalpolicystimulus

2.Chineseexportslowdown:Delayedordisappeared?

3.Anti-involutionanddeflation

4.Thedisconnectbetweentherealeconomyandtheequitymarket

5.Willthe15thFiveYearPlanshiftitsfocusmoretowardconsumption?

HuiShan

+852-2978-6634|hui.shan@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.LC.

LishengWang

+852-3966-4004

lisheng.wang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)LLC.

XinquanChen

xinquan.chen@

+852-2978-2418|

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

YutingYang

+852-2978-7283|

yuting.y.yang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.LC.

6.US-Chinaandgeopolitics:wheretogofromhere?

ChelseaSong

5-1g@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.LC.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachsChina

SixKeyTopicsofDiscussionsDuringOurRecentMarketingTrips

1.Slowinggrowthandthelikelihoodofadditionalpolicystimulus

Year-over-yeargrowthofmajoractivityindicators,includingindustrialproduction,retailsales,andfixedassetinvestment,slowednotablyinJulyandAugust.The

decelerationininfrastructureinvestmentgrowthwasparticularlystriking.Manyofourclientconversationsstartedwithwhetherthegovernmentisconcernedabouttheslowinggrowthandwhetheranothersetofmajoreasingmeasuresislikelyinthenearterm.Judgingfromtheseclientquestions,wethinkthatinvestorshave

increasedtheirsubjectiveprobabilityofadditionalpolicyeasingnowthatdataareshowingclearsignsofweakening.

Inourview,policvmakersarenottooconcernedbecause,despitetheslowdown,Augustindustrialproductionandservicesoutputgrowthremainedabove5%yoy.Thisimpliesthatproduction-basedQ3realGDPgrowthislikelytobearound5%yoy,andthe2025full-yeartargetisstillontrack.Inaddition,theinvestment

slowdowninJulyandAugustmaybeinpartduetodeliberatetighteningpolicies,suchas“anti-involution”initiatives,tocontrolovercapacityinselectindustries.

Takentogether,weexpecttheimplementationofpreviouslyannouncedpolicies

(e.g..theRMB500bn"newfinancinginstrument"fornewinfrastructureproiectsandthenationwidechildbirthsubsidv)butbelieveneweasingannouncementsare

unlikelyinthenearterm.

2.Chineseexportslowdown:Delayedordisappeared?

TheremarkableresilienceinChineseexportsinthefaceof30%higherUStariffs

tookmostinvestorsbysurprise.However,therearedisagreementsamonginvestorsregardingChina'sexportoutlookfor2026:somebelievethatglobaltradeisboundtodeclinenextyearafterallthetariffsimposedbytheUSthisyear,whichmeanstheslowdowninChineseexportsisdelayedbuthasnotdisappeared.Ontheotherhand,otherinvestorsaremoresympathetictoourviewthatChina'sextreme

manufacturingcompetitivenesswilldriveChineseexportshighernextyeardespiteincreasedUStariffs.ForinvestorswhoaremoreconstructiveonChineseexportsandtradesurpluses,thetop-of-mindquestionishowChinawilldeployandrecyclethemassivecurrentaccountsurpluses(notethatourChinacurrentaccountsurplus

forecastofaround3.5%ofGDPin2025and2026istwiceashighasconsensus

expectations).Moreover,severalclientspointedoutthat,eventhoughstrong

currentaccountsurplusesshouldleadtoastrongerRMB,thelong-termtrendofaweakeningDollarandstrengtheningRMBmaytakeaverylongtimetoplayout.

3.Anti-involutionanddeflation

Forforeigninvestors,theterm“anti-involution”soundsnebulousanditishardto

knowhowtotrackprogressandassessimpact.Manyclientsaskedusaboutthegoal,theapproach,andthelikelyimpactofthegovernment's“anti-involution”efforts.

Theyhaveheardfromtheirownchannelchecksthattheanti-involutioncampaignisamedium-termstrategy,notashort-termfix,forpolicymakerstodealwithChina'sdeflationarypressures,suggestingthatanypositiveimpactoninflationand

profitabilitywilltaketimetomaterialize.

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Thisisinlinewithourview.Webelievethat“anti-involution”aimstoaddressawiderangeofissues,includingdeflationthaterodescorporateprofitsandtaxrevenues;marketorder(e.g.,automakersdelayingpaymentstosuppliersandfooddelivery

platformspressuringmom-and-poprestaurantstolowerprices);overcapacity

causedbyfallingdemand(e.g.,steelandcement);overcapacitycausedbytoomuchinvestment(e.g.,solar,lithiumbatteries,andEV);andracingtothebottom,whichgoesagainstthegovernment'spushfor“high-qualitygrowth”(i.e.,excessivepricecompetitionmakesitharderforinnovative,high-qualityproductstoemergeand

thrive).Thecomplexnatureoftheseproblemscallsfordifferentiatedsolutionsfordifferentindustries,andsomeofthesolutionsinvolvechanginglocalgovernments'incentives.Therefore,anti-involutionwilltaketimetogeneratedesiredoutcomes,andChina'sinflationislikelytostaylowintheinterim.ThisisoneofthereasonswhymanyinvestorsremaincautiousaboutChinesecompanies'profitabilityoutlookinthenearterm,eventhoughtheyareincreasinglyconfidentinChina'sabilityto

innovateandthefutureofitstechnologyadvancementinthemediumterm.

4.Thedisconnectbetweentherealeconomyandtheequitymarket

Thestarkcontrastbetweentheweaknessindomesticdemand,asevidencedbysoftretailsalesgrowthandflaggingfixedassetinvestment,andthestrongperformanceofChineseequitymarketsraisedmanyclientquestionsinourmeetings.Investors

askedhowlongsuchadisconnectcancontinue,whentherealeconomywillbegintocatchuptotheforward-lookingequitymarket,andwhichsectorsorindicators(e.g.,propertyrecovery)themarketshouldwatchforsignalsofthiscatch-up.Despite

theselingeringquestions,mostclientsarepositiveonChineseequities,atleastincomparisonwithChinaratesandFX.

Asourequitystrategvteampointedout,thestockmarketrallycancontinueastherearefundamentalreasonsbehindthelatestrally,valuationsandpositioningarenotstretched,andpolicymakersappeartowanta"slowbull"equitymarkettoboost

sentimentandconsumption.Weemphasizethat,duetoChina'sstrictcapital

controls(e.g.,fewhouseholdscaninvestinUSTreasuriesandget4%risk-free

interestrates),Chinesehouseholdshavealimitedmenuofinvestmentvehiclesfortheirmassivestockofsavings.Inlightofstillfallinghousepricesandonlyarounda1%interestrateonbankdeposits,thebarforChinesehouseholdstomovesomeoftheirRMB56tn“excessbankdeposits”intotheeauitvmarketisnotvervhigh.Ifitweretomaterialize,suchflowscoulddrivetheequitymarkethigherinthecomingquarters.

5.Willthe15thFiveYearPlanshiftitsfocusmoretowardconsumption?

ThereisapervasivesenseofconcernoverChina'smedium-to-longtermgrowth

outlookamongforeigninvestors.Atpresent,theChineseeconomyisoverlyreliantonexports,whilethehouseholdconsumptionshareofGDPremainsrelativelylow.Withoutsignificantlybolsteringdomesticdemand,andshouldexportgrowth

eventuallyslow,someinvestorsworrythattheChineseeconomymayfaceeven

greaterchallengesthanJapandidinthe1990s,includingfallinggrowth,inflation,

andinterestrates.Afewportfoliomanagersexpressedthemedium-termpreferenceforreceivingChinaratesforthisreason.Inthiscontext,clientswonderifthe

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upcoming15thFiveYearPlanislikelytosignalaseriouspolicyshifttowardboostingconsumption.Thisyear'spolicycommunicationsstressingconsumptionhavegiveninvestorssomehopeforsuchashift.

Inourview,althoughChinesepolicymakershaveincreasedtheirfocuson

consumptioncomparedtopreviousyears,theyaretakingsmallstepsandstill

experimentingtofindeffectivewaystosustainablylifthouseholdconsumption.Atthesametime,webelievethegovernment'sfocusremainssquarelyontechnologicalinnovationandhigh-techmanufacturing,whichpolicymakersarecountingonto

drivegrowthandavoidthe“middle-incometrap,”andnationalsecurity,especiallyinthecontextofrisinggeopoliticaltensionsandincreasedUS-Chinacompetition.

6.US-Chinaandgeopolitics:wheretogofromhere?

US-Chinarelationsandgeopoliticsfeaturedprominentlyinourclientconversations.ClientsareinterestedintheshapeandformofapotentialUS-Chinadeal,andthe

questionsregardingTaiwanandcross-straitriskscameupinseveralmeetings.WhileweareoftheviewthatUStariffsonChinaareunlikelytorise,andmayevendeclinetosomedegree,givenChina'sstrongcontroloverrareearthsandothercountries'

inabilitytorampupproductionanytimesoon,notallinvestorsthatwetalkedto

sharethesamethinking.Manyclientsexpressedthebeliefthatweareheadingintoamultipolarworld.Alongthispath,thesentimentthat‘goldhigherandtheDollar

weaker'appearstobeaconsensus,high-convictionviewamonginvestors,and

majoreconomiesotherthantheUSandChina(e.g.,Türkiye,India,andGCC

countries)arelikelytoplayabiggerroleinregionalandglobalaffairs.ThetopicofRMBinternationalizationalsogarneredsignificantattention,especiallyamong

MiddleEasterninvestors.

HuiShan

GoldmanSachsChina

DisclosureAppendix

RegAC

We,AndrewTilton,HuiShan,LishengWang,XinquanChen,YutingYangandChelseaSong,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm'sbusinessorclientrelationships.

Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs'GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.

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Thisresearchisforourclientsonly.OtherthandisclosuresrelatingtoGoldmanSachs,thisresearchisbasedoncurrentpublicinformationthatwe

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forecastscontainedhereinareasofthedatehereofandaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornotification.Weseektoupdateourresearchas

appropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Otherthancertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateintheanalyst'sjudgment.

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tradingdesksthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearch.Ourassetmanagementarea,principaltradingdesksandinvestingbusinessesmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearch.

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TheviewsattributedtothirdpartypresentersatGoldmanSachsarrangedconferences,includingindividualsfromotherpartsofGoldmanSachs,donotnecessarilyrefl