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EQUITYRESEARCH|May6,2025|6:21AMHKT
GlobalTechnology
Robotaxi
China’sRobotaximarket-theroadtocommercialization
With500,000Robotaxisexpectedtobeoperatingacross10+citiesinChinaby2030,webelievethequestionisnolongerifL4autonomoustechnologyisready,butoneofhowcompanieswillcommercializetherapidpaceofautonomousdevelopment.WeseeRobotaxisasoneoftheearliestandmostvisibleavenuesto
commercializationoftheautonomoustechnology,withgrowingconsumeracceptanceacrosslargeTier1cities,atighteningsupplyofhumandriversasthefleetsmatureanddriversretire,andwithGovernmentandinsuranceindustryasenablerstosupportgrowth.WeseebothasizeableTAMopportunityahead–US$47bnby2035,aswellasapathtopro?tability,modellingpositivegrossmarginsinearly2026forTier1cities.Keyfactorsto
watch:
1Decreasingcostsofhardwareandalgorithms:OurforecastforChina’sRobotaxiTAMof$47bnby2035Evs.
$54mnin2025isdrivenbydecreasingcostsofhardwareandalgorithmsandloweringoperatingcostsforfleetowners.Theformfactorisaswingfactor:Robotaxishavethepotentialtotransformproductivityoftimespentincars,turningvehiclesintoentertainmenthubsorprivateworkspace,gainsthatmaysigni?cantlyincrease
consumerdemand.SupportiveGovernmentpolicies/licensing,andthedevelopmentofinsurancefortheindustryarebothneededtosupportgrowth.Accidentratesremainacrucialswingfactorforexpandingcustomeracceptanceandreputationrisk.
2Uniteconomicsturningpro?table,encouragingmoresuppliers:By2035E,weexpectrevenuesperRobotaxiinTier-1citiestoreach$31,000,higherthancurrentridehailingvehicles,duetolongeroperatinghoursand
e代cientrouteplanning.Wemodelpositivegrossmarginatthevehiclelevelby2026E/2031E/2034EinT1/T2/othercities.
AllenChang
+8522978-2930
allen.k.chang@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
VerenaJeng
+852-2978-1681
verena.jeng@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
MarkDelaney,CFA
+1(212)357-0535
mark.delaney@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
RonaldKeung,CFA
+852-2978-0856
ronald.keung@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshould
considerthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandother
importantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USa代liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.
TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.
ContributingAuthors
AllenChang
+852-2978-2930
allen.k.chang@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
VerenaJeng
+852-2978-1681
verena.jeng@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
MarkDelaney,CFA
+1(212)357-0535
mark.delaney@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
RonaldKeung,CFA
+852-2978-0856
ronald.keung@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
KotaYuzawa
+81(3)4587-9863
kota.yuzawa@
GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.
LincolnKong,CFA
+852-2978-6603
lincoln.kong@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
TinaHou
+86(21)2401-8694
tina.hou@
GoldmanSachs(China)
SecuritiesCompanyLimited
ThomasWang
+852-2978-1697
thomas.wang@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
EricSheridan
+1(917)343-8683
eric.sheridan@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
BenMiller
+1(917)343-8674
ler@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
XuanZhang
+852-2978-1478
xuan.zhang@
GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.
GoldmanSachsGlobalRobotaxi
6May20252
TableofContents
ChinaRobotaxiTAMSnapshot
3
ChinaRobotaxiTAMindetails
5
GlobalRobotaxiTAMscenarios
6
(1)Marketsize?700xChinaRobotaxiTAMgrowthinthenext10years
6
(2)Penetration?25%by2035to?llthelabourgapoftaxidrivers
7
(3)Elementsofsuccess?Technologyandexperience
9
(4)Revenuesgeneration?Upto$31kpervehicleintier-1citiesby2035E
9
(5)Costsreduction?Downto$19kpervehicleintier-1citiesin2035E
10
(6)Uniteconomics?Pro?tmakingby2026E/31E/34EinTier-1/-2/othercities
12
(7)Operatingleverage?Increasingoperatingpro?tsasbusinessscales
13
(8)Downsiderisk?Pro?tabilityissensitivetocompetition
14
(9)Downsiderisks?Accidentscandamagereputation
15
(10)Whereto?ndRobotaxis?10+citieswithRobotaxiservicesinChina
15
(11)Policyprogress?Supportivepolicieswithmoreoperatingareas
16
(12)Insurancesupport?Stillinearlystageofdevelopment
18
(13)ReasonstouseRobotaxi?Anewridingexperiencewithentertainment
18
(14)Futureformfactors?Withoutsteeringwheels,butwithroboticarms,AIanddrones
19
(15)Futuremarketsegmentation?Wideningchoiceofcarmodels
20
(16)Potentialup-scalingmethods?Collaborationwithridingplatforms
21
(17)Potentialup-scalingmethods?Shared-ownershiptoencourageadoption
22
(18)Whattoimprove?Densityand?eetcoverage
23
(19)Whattoimprove?Cleaningandmaintenance
23
(20)Whattoimprove?Algorithmenhancedbyworldmodel
24
(21)Howtoevaluatesafety?Sensors,drivingstylesandemergencymeasures
25
(22)Howtoenhancesafety?Combinedeffortinsoftware,hardware,andregulations
25
DisclosureAppendix27
6May20253
GoldmanSachsGlobalRobotaxi
ChinaRobotaxiTAMSnapshot
ChinaRobotaximarket:US$47Bopportunityby2035E,comparedtoUS$54min2025
(US$m)
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
Tier-1cityRobotaxiTier-2cityRobotaxiOthercities
+96%
-
20242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
Fleetsizeby2030(E):Tier-1cities270K;Nationwide474K
('000)
PonyAI,
Others,
40
57
PonyAI,
35
9
Others,13
5
Beijing
Shanghai
Fleetsizeby2035(E):Tier-1cities622K;Nationwide1.9M
('000)Others,
PonyAI,
PonyAI,117
85Others,67
20
93
34
Beijing
Shanghai
Ordersperday:29ordersperdayinTier-1citiesby2035E
2929292929
Tier-1
Tier-2
28
272727
22
21
22
21
22
21
19
21
20
20
20
20
18
20
Others
20
19
15
18
14
17
17
17
16
15
14
20242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
ChinaRobotaxiFleet:1.9Mby2035Ewith25%penetrationtototalsharedmobilityvehicles,vs.4,000in2025Ewith0.1%penetration
('000)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Othercities
Beijing
GuangzhouTier-2cities
Robotaxipenetrationrate
2025E2030E2035E
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Others,
PonyAI,
37
28
Others,
15
PonyAI,22
5
5
Shenzhen
Guangzhou
Others,
PonyAI,41
55
Others,
31
PonyAI,41
20
20
Shenzhen
Guangzhou
ASPperorder(US$):$3.0perorderinTier-1citiesby2035E
3.5(US$)Tier-1Tier-2Others3.0
2.5
2.01.51.00.5
0.0
20242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
Faresperkm(US$):$0.3inTier-1citiesby2035E
Operatingdistanceperday(km):284inTier-1citiesby2035E
0.450.400.350.300.250.200.150.10
0.05
-
340
(US$)Tier-1Tier-2Others
290
240
190
140
90
40
20242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
(km)Others
278284
Tier-1
191
257
268273
244
216
179
Tier-2
138
94
101
20242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
6May20255
GoldmanSachsGlobalRobotaxi
ChinaRobotaxiTAMindetails
Exhibit2:ChinaRobotaxiTAM:increasingfromUS$54mntoUS$47bnin2025-35E
ChinaRobotaxiTAM
1.ChinaRobotaxiTAM(US$m)20242025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2031E
2032E
2033E
2034E
2035E
ChinaRobotaxiTAM1054
206
606
1,703
4,313
11,711
18,637
26,306
33,924
40,538
46,568
Tier-1cityRobotaxi640
156
484
1,457
3,335
8,064
11,351
14,189
16,492
17,866
19,457
Tier-2cityRobotaxi312
29
66
181
785
2,835
5,374
9,272
14,334
19,161
23,150
Othercities13
21
56
65
193
812
1,912
2,845
3,098
3,512
3,961
Mix100%100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Tier-1cityRobotaxi60%73%
76%
80%
86%
77%
69%
61%
54%
49%
44%
42%
Tier-2cityRobotaxi29%22%
14%
11%
11%
18%
24%
29%
35%
42%
47%
50%
Othercities10%5%
10%
9%
4%
4%
7%
10%
11%
9%
9%
9%
Byoperators1054
206
606
1,703
4,313
11,711
18,637
26,306
33,924
40,538
46,568
PonyAI19
31
88
371
1,305
4,964
7,803
10,918
12,807
14,631
16,416
Baidu933
124
378
569
757
1,247
2,119
3,073
3,687
4,204
4,624
Others013
2.RobotaxiRevenuespervehicle20242025E
51
2026E
140
2027E
764
2028E
2,251
2029E
5,501
2030E
8,714
2031E
12,315
2032E
17,430
2033E
21,704
2034E
25,529
2035E
Revenuespervehicle(US$'000)813
18
23
24
24
25
25
25
25
25
25
Tier-1city914
20
26
26
28
30
31
31
31
31
31
Tier-2city812
16
17
17
17
19
20
21
22
22
22
Othercities58
11
12
13
13
15
17
18
19
20
20
YoY%107%62%
36%
25%
6%
0%
3%
0%
1%
1%
0%
-1%
Tier-1city40%51%
43%
29%
0%
6%
6%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
Tier-2city104%59%
33%
5%
1%
1%
10%
4%
6%
5%
2%
0%
Othercities133%56%
31%
13%
3%
4%
15%
9%
8%
4%
4%
0%
A.Bydistance
Faresperkm(US$)
Tier-1city0.400.40
0.40
0.40
0.38
0.36
0.33
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.31
0.30
Tier-2city0.320.32
0.32
0.32
0.30
0.27
0.26
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.23
Othercities0.260.26
0.26
0.26
0.24
0.22
0.21
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.18
YoY%
Tier-1city0%0%
0%
0%
-6%
-6%
-6%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-2%
Tier-2city0%0%
0%
0%
-8%
-8%
-5%
-5%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-2%
Othercities0%0%
0%
0%
-8%
-8%
-5%
-5%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-2%
Operatingdistanceperday(km)
Tier-1city94101
138
179
191
216
244
257
268
273
278
284
Tier-2city95107
137
144
158
173
200
219
236
253
264
270
Othercities8494
117
132
149
168
204
235
258
274
290
296
Travelleddistanceperday(km)
Tier-1city200220
300
360
360
380
420
440
440
440
440
440
Tier-2city225275
350
350
350
375
475
475
525
550
550
550
Othercities240240
300
330
330
420
510
510
600
630
630
630
Utlizationrate
Tier-1city47%46%
46%
50%
53%
57%
58%
59%
61%
62%
63%
65%
Tier-2city42%39%
39%
41%
45%
46%
42%
46%
45%
46%
48%
49%
Othercities35%39%
39%
40%
45%
40%
40%
46%
43%
44%
46%
47%
Revenuespervehicleday(US$)2236
49
62
66
66
68
68
68
69
69
69
Tier-1city3841
56
72
72
77
82
84
86
86
86
86
Tier-2city3034
44
46
47
47
52
54
57
60
61
61
Othercities2224
30
34
35
37
42
46
50
52
54
54
Operatingdays
Tier-1city250350
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
Tier-2city250350
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
Othercities250350
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
365
B.Byorders
Numberofordersperday
Tier-1city1415
21
27
27
27
28
29
29
29
29
29
Tier-2city1415
19
20
20
20
20
20
21
22
22
22
Othercities1415
16
17
17
17
18
18
19
20
21
21
ASPperorder(US$)
Tier-1city2.62.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
Tier-2city2.22.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
Othercities1.51.6
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
Fleetsize
1.Robotaxivolume20242025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2031E
2032E
2033E
2034E
2035E
Robotaxivolume(units'000)1.34.1
11.4
26.9
71.0
179.3
473.5
756.3
1,054.1
1,347.7
1,609.4
1,861.3
Tier-1cities0.72.8
7.7
18.5
55.3
119.1
270.4
368.9
451.2
526.5
571.0
621.7
Beijing0.20.9
2.8
6.3
20.7
44.2
105.9
134.8
172.2
205.3
221.8
243.2
Shanghai0.10.5
0.7
2.6
8.9
20.5
53.2
86.5
114.5
137.3
152.4
171.3
Guangzhou0.21.0
3.0
6.6
17.6
34.8
63.5
84.4
93.4
104.9
111.1
115.5
Shenzhen0.10.5
1.2
3.0
8.1
19.6
47.8
63.2
71.0
78.9
85.6
91.7
Tier-2cities0.41.0
1.8
3.9
10.7
45.8
150.4
274.0
446.2
657.3
859.2
1,037.6
Othercities0.20.3
1.9
4.6
5.1
14.4
52.7
113.5
156.7
163.9
179.3
202.0
YoY%95%224%
178%
136%
164%
152%
164%
60%
39%
28%
19%
16%
2.SharedMobilityandPenetration(Taxi+Ridehailing+Robotaxi)
Sharedmobilityfleetvolumebycity(m)4.64.8
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.5
5.9
6.3
6.7
7.0
7.4
Tier-1cities1.01.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
Tier-2cities2.52.6
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.7
Othercities1.11.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.9
YoY%10%6%
2%
2%
1%
2%
7%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
Sharedmobilityfleetvolumebyoperation(m4.64.8
4.9
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.5
5.9
6.3
6.7
7.0
7.4
Ridehailingfleet3.23.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.3
Taxifleet1.41.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Robotaxifleet0.00.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.8
1.1
1.3
1.6
1.9
YoY%10%6%
2%
2%
1%
2%
7%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
0%
1%
1%
3%
9%
13%
17%
20%
23%
25%
Tier-1cities0%0.3%
1%
2%
4%
9%
19%
25%
29%
33%
34%
35%
Beijing0%0.2%
1%
1%
4%
9%
20%
24%
29%
33%
34%
35%
Shanghai0%0.1%
0%
1%
3%
6%
14%
22%
27%
31%
33%
35%
Guangzhou0%0.5%
1%
3%
7%
14%
24%
31%
32%
35%
35%
35%
Shenzhen0%0.3%
1%
2%
4%
10%
23%
29%
31%
33%
34%
35%
Tier-2cities0%0.0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
5%
9%
14%
19%
24%
28%
Othercities0%0.0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
4%
8%
10%
10%
10%
11%
3.Robotaxifleetbycompany20242025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
2031E
2032E
2033E
2034E
2035E
Robotaxivolumebycompany(units'000)1.34.1
11.4
26.9
71.0
179.3
473.5
756.3
1,054.1
1,347.7
1,609.4
1,861.3
PonyAI0.10.6
1.6
3.9
15.2
51.2
180.8
294.4
404.8
465.5
521.3
573.5
Baidu1.02.1
5.4
12.1
18.2
25.5
45.0
76.5
110.9
133.1
151.7
166.9
Others0.11.4
4.4
10.9
37.6
102.5
247.7
385.5
538.4
749.1
936.4
1,120.9
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
GoldmanSachsGlobalRobotaxi
6May20256
GlobalRobotaxiTAMscenarios
OurAutonomousVehicles(AVs)forecastimpliesthataglobal?eetofafewmillioncommercialAVsusedforridesharecouldbeontheroadin2030.Althoughthis
wouldcompriselessthan1%oftheglobalcarparcofover1bnvehicles,itcouldresultina>$25bnmarketforpersonalmobilityfromrobotaxis(dependingon
factorssuchasASPs,tripsperday,andaveragemilestraveledpertrip).Weassumetheinternationalmixofthebusinessaffectsrevenuepertripinthis2030scenario.More
optimisticscenariosonutilizationandASPswouldimplya$100bn+marketin2030.
Exhibit3:Weestimatethemarketin2030forrobotaxiscouldbe>$25bn
2030marketscenariosforrobotaxis($mn)
Revenue
pertrip
Tripsper
robotaxiperday
150
750
GlobalAVsinoperation(000s)
1,3502,0002,650
3,300
4,000
$5
2
$548
$2,738
$4,928
$7,300
$9,673
$12,045
$14,600
4
$1,095
$5,475
$9,855
$14,600
$19,345
$24,090
$29,200
6
$1,643
$8,213
$14,783
$21,900
$29,018
$36,135
$43,800
8
$2,190
$10,950
$19,710
$29,200
$38,690
$48,180
$58,400
10
$2,738
$13,688
$24,638
$36,500
$48,363
$60,225
$73,000
12
$3,285
$16,425
$29,565
$43,800
$58,035
$72,270
$87,600
14
$3,833
$19,163
$34,493
$51,100
$67,708
$84,315
$102,200
$7
2
$767
$3,833
$6,899
$10,220
$13,542
$16,863
$20,440
4
$1,533
$7,665
$13,797
$20,440
$27,083
$33,726
$40,880
6
$2,300
$11,498
$20,696
$30,660
$40,625
$50,589
$61,320
8
$3,066
$15,330
$27,594
$40,880
$54,166
$67,452
$81,760
10
$3,833
$19,163
$34,493
$51,100
$67,708
$84,315
$102,200
12
$4,599
$22,995
$41,391
$61,320
$81,249
$101,178
$122,640
14
$5,366
$26,828
$48,290
$71,540
$94,791
$118,041
$143,080
$9
2
$986
$4,928
$8,870
$13,140
$17,411
$21,681
$26,280
4
$1,971
$9,855
$17,739
$26,280
$34,821
$43,362
$52,560
6
$2,957
$14,783
$26,609
$39,420
$52,232
$65,043
$78,840
8
$3,942
$19,710
$35,478
$52,560
$69,642
$86,724
$105,120
10
$4,928
$24,638
$44,348
$65,700
$87,053
$108,405
$131,400
12
$5,913
$29,565
$53,217
$78,840
$104,463
$130,086
$157,680
14
$6,899
$34,493
$62,087
$91,980
$121,874
$151,767
$183,960
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
(1)Marketsize?700xChinaRobotaxiTAMgrowthinthenext10years
WeexpectChina’sRobotaximarkettogrowfromUSS$54millionin2025to
US$12billionin2030andUS$47billionin2035(
Exhibit4
).TheTAMwillgrow757xinthe10yearsof2025-35,indicatingastrongmarketopportunity.Revenuegenerationismainlyfromridingfarecharges,whichwewilldiscussfurtherintherevenue
generationsessionofthereport.Overall,weexpecteachRobotaxicangenerateUS$69perdayby2035(vs.US$36in2025),whichwillbehigherthantraditionalride-hailing
vehicleswhichonaveragegenerateUS$28-56(Rmb200-450)perday,duetolongeroperatingtimes.
6May20257
Exhibit4:RobotaxiTAMinChina:increasingtoUS$47bnin3035Exhibit5:Robotaxi?eetinChina:increasingto1.9mby2035,basedonforecastofmultiplerobotaxicompanies
(US$m)
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
46,568
Tier-1cityRobotaxi
40,538
Tier-2cityRobotaxiOthercities
33,924
26,306
18,637
11,711
4,313
606
206
54
10
1,703
20242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035E
Source:Com
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