CMEGrainMarketsOutlook---ToZCE&CNGOCConferenceBellChenWuhan,ChinaMay07,2015Theinformationcontainedhereinisbelievedtobedrawnfromreliablesourcesbutcannotbeguaranteed.Neithertheinformationpresented,noranyopinionsexpressed,constituteasolicitationofthepurchaseorsaleofanycommodity.Thoseindividualsactingonthisinformationareresponsiblefortheirownactions.Anyopinionsexpressedhereinaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Anyreproductionorotheruseofthisinformationandthoughtsexpressedhereinwithoutthewrittenpermissionoftheauthorisstrictlyprohibited.Commoditytradingmaynotbesuitableforallrecipientsofthisinformation.Theriskoflossintradingcommodityfuturesandoptionscanbesubstantial.Pastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.23March1SoybeanStocks

3月1日大豆庫存4Mid-AprilthruAugustAverageWeeklyU.S.SoybeanExportSales

4月中旬至8月大豆平均每周出口量5U.S.SoybeanMealExportCommitmentsvsAnnualExports

-asofMidApril-6U.S.SoybeanMealNewCropExportCommitments

-asofMidApril-NewNarrowestSpreadPost-Harvest….

BraziltoUS收割后巴西和美國價格差縮到最小78U.S.September-MarchSoybeanCrushvsApril-AugustCrush9CentralIllinoisSoybeanGrossCrushMargin10U.S.SoybeanPlantedAcreageUSDAMarchestimate84.6millionacresvs83.7millionlastyear11U.S.SoybeanPlantedAcreageChangefromMarchtoJune12U.S.SoybeanAverageYield13U.S.SoybeanEndingStocksScenarios14U.S.NewCropSoybeanExportCommitmentsasofMid-AprilPurchasingPace1516SouthAmericanSoybeanProduction*2014/15representsthisyear’s(recentlyharvested)crops17SouthAmericanSoybeanExports*2014/15representsthisyear’s(recentlyharvested)cropsSoybeanworldsupplies18CBOTSoybeansManagedMoney(Fund)NetPosition

FuturesandOptionsCombined2021March1U.S.CornStocks22U.S.March1On-FarmCornStocks23EIAWeeklyU.S.EthanolProduction24EIAWeeklyU.S.EthanolProduction

PercentChangefromPreviousYear%changeneededtoaveragetoreachUSDA’s2014/15cornforethanoldemandestimate25December1&March1U.S.CornStocks

vsAverageTradeEstimate26U.S.CornQuarterlyFeed/ResidualUsage-4%0%MajorU.S.LivestockNumbersEstimatedfeedusageconsumption:Beefcattle:34%

Poultry:27%

Hogs:25%

Dairycattle:12%

28U.S.Corn2ndHalfFeed/ResidualUsageNeededforUSDA5.250bilbuannualest.29U.S.Feed/ResidualUsageComparison

-1sthalfchangevs2ndhalfchangefrompreviousyear-Noyearwithadeclinein1sthalffeedusageeversaw2ndhalffeedusageupmorethan14%frompreviousyearinlast20years.30U.S.Feed/ResidualUsageComparison

-1sthalfchangevs2ndhalfchangefrompreviousyear-31U.S.CornExportCommitmentsvsAnnualExports

-asofMidApril-32Mid-AprilthruAugustAverageWeeklyU.S.CornExportSales33Sept-EarlyAprilvsMidApril-AugustAverageWeeklyExports3435U.S.CornPlantedAcreageUSDAMarchestimate89.2millionacresvs90.6millionlastyearandthelowestin5years36MarchCornandSoybeanPlantingIntentions

vsAverageTradeEstimate37MarchtoJuneandMarchtoFinalCornAcreageRevisions3839U.S.CornAverageYieldAverageyieldchangeinyearfollowingrecordyield~-11.2%Ofthe11recordyieldssince1970/71,followingyear’s

yielddeclined8times,nearlyunchangedtwice,increasedonce

11.2%yielddeclinethisyearequatesto151.8bu/acre40U.S.CornEndingStocks41WorldCornEndingStocksCornWorldSupplies4243MajorCornExporters'PercentofGlobalExports44U.S.NewCropCornExportCommitmentsasofMid-April45WeeklyNearbyCBOTCorn46July2015CornvsJuly2010Corn47December2015CornvsDecember2010Corn48CBOTCornAveragePriceVolatility

(HightoLowPriceChangebyPeriod)CBOTCornManagedMoney(Fund)NetPosition

FuturesandOptionsCombined5051March1U.S.WheatStocks52U.S.WheatExportCommitmentsvsAnnualExports

-asofMidApril-53NewCropU.S.WheatExportCommitments

asofMid-April54U.S.WinterWheatBy-ClassAcreage&Production*2015reflectsUSDAplantedacresand3-yearaveragesforharvestingpercentageandyields55U.S.WheatEndingStocks56WorldWheatEndingStocks57WeeklyNearbyCBOTWheatCBOTWheatManagedMoney(Fund)NetPosition

FuturesandOptionsCombinedDroughtMonitor59DroughtOutlook60AccuweatherProLongTermWeatherUpdate

ElNinoAnalog

BreakdownoftheMayThroughJulyPeriod,IncludingSomeIdeasonENSO

ThishasledtheIRIsitetoincreasepercentagesofElNinothroughthefall.Withhighconfidence,ElNinowillstickthroughsummerandfall.

ElNinoishereandstrengthening.Thelatestmonth-to-monthanomalyis0.9Cabove,butthelatestthree-monthdeparturesfromJFMis0.5Canomaly.Thiswillcomeupoverthenextcoupleofthree-monthaverages,stillinaweakstagebutborderlinemoderatestageandnowitlookslikeitcanreachtheseaveragesbymidsummer.Doesthismakeadifference?Yes.Thebelowshowsthereasonwhyforthesurge.Awarmkelvinwavehaschangedtheoverallwindanomaliesandhasforcedwarmerwaterseastward.Lookatthewarmingtrendonthegraphicbelowshowingthewarminguptowardthesurfaceineasternareas.61Summer2015AgScorecard

WetSummerFavoredOverall,WeakDryRiskLastHalfSeason

AnalogsTrendedSlightlyDrierN.MidwestinJuly62Dryvs.Seasonal/WetMonthlyBreakouts

fromTop-WeightedAnalogs63CompletionoftheAccuweatherProSummerForecast…..