代謝增長(zhǎng)論：

市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，學(xué)習(xí)不確定性，

和技術(shù)（產(chǎn)業(yè)）小波PingChen陳平CenterforNewPoliticalEconomyFudanUniversity,Shanghai,ChinaPresentedat14thISSConferenceatBrisbane,AustraliaJuly2,2019北京大學(xué)國(guó)家發(fā)展研究院2019年11月22日代謝增長(zhǎng)論：

市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，學(xué)習(xí)不確定性，

和技術(shù)（產(chǎn)業(yè)）小1靈感的由來(lái)：觀潮而思四十五年文革長(zhǎng)征：太原重機(jī)廠的調(diào)查（1967年春）》西方禁運(yùn)：勞動(dòng)分工受市場(chǎng)規(guī)模限制李約瑟，費(fèi)正清，裴宜理，黃宗智，和普里戈金》用物理學(xué)方法研究歷史（1979-85）布魯塞爾學(xué)派：生命起源》螞蟻的勞動(dòng)分工模型（1977-81）》現(xiàn)代勞動(dòng)分工與東西方文明的分岔》人和螞蟻的差別？日本物理學(xué)家的觀察》引入文化因子（1983-87）從自組織》經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)》演化動(dòng)力學(xué)》復(fù)雜演化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論生態(tài)學(xué)的復(fù)雜性佯謬》亞當(dāng)-斯密悖論》一般斯密原理（2019，2019）中國(guó)模式的辯論》挑戰(zhàn)內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)論和知識(shí)積累倫》代謝增長(zhǎng)論（2019-14）靈感的由來(lái)：觀潮而思四十五年文革長(zhǎng)征：太原重機(jī)廠的調(diào)查（192修正經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本觀念市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的本質(zhì)：價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)還是市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)？?jī)r(jià)格機(jī)制：邊際定價(jià)，成本加成定價(jià)，還是策略定價(jià)(strategicpricing)?技術(shù)進(jìn)步的基本模式：可預(yù)測(cè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不可預(yù)測(cè)的不確定性？經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基本動(dòng)力是知識(shí)擴(kuò)散，還是資源與市場(chǎng)的開(kāi)發(fā)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)與淘汰？經(jīng)濟(jì)決策是完全信息下的理性優(yōu)化決策，還是陌生機(jī)遇下的試錯(cuò)和模仿？修正經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本觀念市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的本質(zhì)：價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)還是市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)3經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本問(wèn)題（1）經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否受資源約束（馬爾薩斯問(wèn)題）？》新古典人性的自私貪婪假設(shè)=資源無(wú)限》線性優(yōu)化模型資源有限》演化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的非線性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)演化模型（2）如何描寫(xiě)技術(shù)更新對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的作用？新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：噪聲驅(qū)動(dòng)》連續(xù)變化》優(yōu)化過(guò)程理論生態(tài)學(xué)：小波更迭》連續(xù)與躍遷》試錯(cuò)過(guò)程經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本問(wèn)題（1）經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否受資源約束（馬爾薩斯問(wèn)題）4李約瑟問(wèn)題-華勒斯坦佯謬

》

勞動(dòng)分工和東西方文明分岔》

代謝增長(zhǎng)論》產(chǎn)業(yè)（文明）興衰生態(tài)模型引入經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)(Samuelson1971)文化因子引入學(xué)習(xí)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)(Chen1987)資源約束》市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)(陳平2019)斯密悖論》復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)》穩(wěn)定性與復(fù)雜性的矛盾(Chen2019)邏輯斯蒂小波》創(chuàng)造性毀滅》知識(shí)新陳代謝》挑戰(zhàn)內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)論(Chen2019,2019)李約瑟問(wèn)題-華勒斯坦佯謬》

勞動(dòng)分工和東西方文明分岔》

代5一石五鳥(niǎo)（1）生態(tài)學(xué)》引入行為因素（2）個(gè)人主義與集體主義的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)策略與趕超模式（3）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)轉(zhuǎn)為市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，邊際定價(jià)、成本加成定價(jià)，與策略定價(jià)（4）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與復(fù)雜科學(xué)》重新定義國(guó)富=規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)+范圍經(jīng)濟(jì)（資源多樣性）》新的綠色增長(zhǎng)方式（5）一般斯密原理：勞動(dòng)分工受市場(chǎng)規(guī)模、資源種類(lèi)、環(huán)境漲落的限制（6）經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)力學(xué)統(tǒng)一理論（微觀，中觀，宏觀，制度）的共同模塊》生命周期的小波模型（7）虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)重新生態(tài)化》社會(huì)人與經(jīng)濟(jì)生態(tài)一石五鳥(niǎo)（1）生態(tài)學(xué)》引入行為因素6FundamentalCausesofAsianEmergence:TwoCompetingPerspectivesNeo-classicalperspective:nothingnew>techdiffusion+highinvestment>export-ledgrowth>convergenceingrowthandcultureEvolutionaryperspective:ecologicalcrisis+newwaveofindustrialrevolution>structuralchangesineconomiesandorganization>riseofEastAsia&declineofWestTheoreticalchallenge:whichgrowththeoryisrelevantintheglobalage?FundamentalCausesofAsianEm7WhichGrowthTheoryIsRelevanttoModernHistory?AverageAnnualGDPGrowthRate(1913-2019)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Period WEuro EEuro Asia US fUSSR Japan China---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1913-50 1.19 0.86 0.82 2.84 2.15 2.21 -0.021950-73 4.79 4.86 5.17 3.93 4.84 9.29 5.021973-2019 2.21 1.01 5.41 2.94 -0.42 2.71 6.72---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Source:Maddison(2019),UNStatisticsWhichGrowthTheoryIsRelevan8UnevenGrowthinGlobalization

(AnnualRealGDPgrowthrateperdecade)Period 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s-------------------------------------------------------------------- China

6.2

9.310.410.5

Japan 3.8 4.6 1.2 0.7 US 3.2 3.2 3.4 1.6 Germany 2.9 2.3 1.9 0.9 EastAsia 4.4 5.5 3.3

4.0LatinAmerica 6.1 1.5 3.2 3.1 EastEurope 4.4 2.3-2.0 4.3WestEurope 3.1 2.3 2.1 1.1Australia&NZ 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.0World 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.5------------------------------------------------------------------ (DataSource:UNStatistics) UnevenGrowthinGlobalization9MainIssuesinEconomicTheory1.Equilibriumvs.non-equilibrium

growththeory>convergence/divergencevs.rise&fall2.Conceptofknowledgeandnatureoftechnology>staticvs.evolutionaryperspective3.Populationdynamicsofcreativedestruction>resourceconstrainsandtechnologywavelets4.Learningcompetitionandculturestrategy>differentgrowthmodeinWestandEast>labor-savingvs.resource-savingtechnology5.EastAsiaandChinaexperience>technologycycle,mixedeconomy,andhelpinghandMainIssuesinEconomicTheory10NeoclassicalGrowthTheory:

Convergencevs.divergencestoryExogenousgrowththeory(Solow1956):ConstantReturns>Convergence

Endogenousgrowththeory(Romer1990):Learningbydoing=KnowledgeAccumulation(Arrow1962)>IncreasingReturns>Divergence>PersistentdividebetweenRichandPoorPuzzle:howtounderstandriseand

fallofcivilizationsandgreatpowers?Metabolicgrowththeory(Chen1987,2019,2019,2019)NeoclassicalGrowthTheory:

C11EconomicInsightandTheoreticalModelingAdamSmith>divisionoflaborislimitedby

marketextentMarshall>

economicsshouldbeclosetobiologyanddynamicsHayek>knowledgeisadiscoveryprocessSchumpeter>developmentmeanscreativedestructionFrankKnight>riskanduncertaintyinmarketEconomicInsightandTheoretic12MethodologicalIssue:HowtoDescribe

TechnologyAdvancement?Technologyasrandomshock:Solowresidual,RBCschool>macroeconometricsTechnologyascontinuoustrajectory:knowledgecapital,increasingreturns>Technologyaslogisticgrowthturnedintologisticwavelets>populationdynamicsforSchumpeter’screativedestructionMethodologicalIssue:HowtoD13Unlimitedvs.Limited(Logistic)Growth

a1=0.6,a2=1,a3=1.4;K=4,Rlogis=4.0Unlimitedvs.Limited(Logisti14TheoreticalIssue:WhatDeterminestheSizeofMarketExtent?Smiththeorem:divisionoflaborislimitedby

marketextent

=marketniche>dependsonresourceandtechnology>logisticgrowth=varyingreturnstoscale>sourceofnonlinearity&complexityNeoclassicalproductionfunction>ignoresresourceconstraints>unlimited(exponential)growth>equilibriumthinkingandconsumerism>rootofecologicalcrisis+financialcrisisTheoreticalIssue:WhatDeterm15EvidenceofLogisticGrowth:

USAutomobileIndustry

(OutputasPercentageofGDP)EvidenceofLogisticGrowth:

16TechnologyWavelets,GrowthCycles,and

CreativeDestructionin

SpeciesCompetitionModelTechnologyWavelets,GrowthCy17ChinaApproachinAdaptingTechCycle:HelpingHandatVaryingStagesI(initialstage).>strategicplanning,technologyimport,techtransferfromscience&defensesectortocivilianindustryII(take-offstage).>opencompetitionundermixedeconomy,selectiveopeningin

industrialpark,governmentmatchingfundforFDI,marketregulationforvirtuouscompetitionIII(maturestage).>breakingmonopoly+encouraginginnovationIV(transitionstage).>assistanceforclose-downobsoleteindustry,re-educationoflaid-offworkers,reformpolicy&stabilizingpolicyChinaApproachinAdaptingTec18ObservablePatternsin

ChangingReturntoScaleCobb-Douglasproductionfunction>static(fixed)returntoscaleLogisticgrowth>logisticcurve>dynamicreturntoscale>dynamicincreasingreturns(firsthalf)+decreasingreturns(secondhalf)+constantreturns(infinitefuture)toscaleSpeciescompetition>logisticwavelets>rise&fallofwaveletsObservablePatternsin

Changin19OriginofCultureDiversity:

CultureAsLearningStrategyforEmergingMarkets&ResourcesEquilibriumthinking>cultureconvergence>universalvalueandinstituteNon-equilibriumthinking>culturediversity>varyingstrategiesforadaptingtochangingenvironment>coexistenceofindividualistandcollectivistsspeciesOriginofCultureDiversity:

20WhyEast

(AsiaandChina)IsDifferentfromWest?Twomodesofdivisionoflaborinhistory:East>resource-saving/labor-intensivetechnology>agriculturerevolution>riseofEastWest>labor-saving/resource-intensivetechnology>industrialrevolution>riseofWestCrisesofmoderncivilization:Globalwarming>ecologicalcrisisJobcrisis>machinecrowdingoutpeopleWhatistheimpactofinformationrevolution?WhyEast(AsiaandChina)IsD21WallersteinParadoxand

CausesofCultureDiversityHistoricalparadox>Whyresource-richEuropeanneedsmoreexistencespacewhilehighlypopulatedChinaneedsmorelaborduringcivilizationbifurcationabout14-17thcentury?Ecologicalconstraintsforgrowth>resource/populationratio>strategicchoiceunderuncertaintyCultureorientationshapedbyenvironment>laborsavingvs.resourcesavingtechnology>individualismvs.collectivism>pathdependenceindevelopmentprocessWallersteinParadoxand

Cause22ThreeTypesofLearningStrategiesandRiskAttitudesLearningbydoing(Smith:pin-making)>knowledgeaccumulation>gradualchange>risk-neutralcultureLearningbytrying(pioneersinfire,electricity)>knowledgecreation>abruptchange>risk-takingcultureLearningbyimitating(late-comers)>catch-upgame>risk-aversecultureModelingapproach:fromstatictheoryofriskaversiontononlineardynamicsofvaryingriskbehaviorThreeTypesofLearningStrate23CultureFactorandLearningStrategyin

FacingNewandUncertainTechnologyBehavioralfactorR(a)0<a<1Collectivism=riskaverse-1<a<0Individualism=risktakingCultureFactorandLearningSt24Resource,Culture,andLearningStrategyIndividualisticspeciesneedslarger

existencespace.Europeanpastorallife>labor-savingbutresource-consuming

economy

Chinesegrain-production>resource-saving

butlabor-intensive

economyResource,Culture,andLearnin25CompetitiveExclusion&CoexistenceinTwoSpeciesModelTheconditionofco-existenceTwocollectivistscannotcoexist;Twoindividualistsmaycoexist;No.ofspeciesNo.ofresourcesCompetitiveExclusion&Coexis26LandUsein1993(Maddison2019,p.28)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------RegionTotal(mhc)Arable(%)Pop(m)ArabLandperhead(hc)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------China 959.7 10 1178.4 0.08Japan 37.8 11.8 124.8 0.04India 328.8 51.6 899.0 0.19Europe 487.7 27.8 506.9 0.26US 980.9 19.1 239.2 0.73USSR 2240.3 10.3 293.0 0.79Canada 997.6 4.6 28.4 1.58Australia 771.4 6.0 17.8 2.62Resourceintensity:Westmode~10timesormoreofEastmodeLandUsein1993(Maddison20127Catch-UpGamebetweenInnovatorsandImitators

ComplexpatternsofriseandfallbetweenindividualistandcollectivismCollectivistwillcatchandwinbyimitatingexistingtechnologyIndividualistwillsurvivebyfasterinnovation&learningbytryingemergingtechnologyCollectivisthasgreaterstabilityunderfluctuatingenvironmentAmixedsystemofindividualistsandcollectivistsismorestablethanapuresystemoftwoindividualistsCatch-UpGamebetweenInnovato28時(shí)代變遷與規(guī)范更新羅馬俱樂(lè)部報(bào)告》增長(zhǎng)的極限》系統(tǒng)工程興起（196？）數(shù)學(xué)的突破與質(zhì)疑：突變，分岔、混沌（1970’s）》生物學(xué)家懷疑(Gould)資本主義與社會(huì)主義競(jìng)爭(zhēng)誰(shuí)勝誰(shuí)負(fù)？》普里戈金不信（1986），蘇東瓦解后贊賞（1992）。勞動(dòng)分工的優(yōu)化模式（楊小凱）與演化模式（陳平）（1990）。金融危機(jī)與中國(guó)崛起》接受代謝增長(zhǎng)論時(shí)代變遷與規(guī)范更新羅馬俱樂(lè)部報(bào)告》增長(zhǎng)的極限》系統(tǒng)工程興起（29方法論問(wèn)題真實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡與非均衡的機(jī)制線性與非線性思維理論與計(jì)算機(jī)模擬薩繆爾森問(wèn)題(2019)：陳平工作是否會(huì)產(chǎn)生新的規(guī)范(paradigm)?普里戈金問(wèn)題：混沌產(chǎn)生有序》什么的新的秩序？陳平探索：從復(fù)雜經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》演化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》代謝經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法論問(wèn)題真實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)30ConclusionGrowthisanevolutionarydynamicsinnon-equilibrium

opensystem,whichismorecomplexthanoptimizationprocessinequilibriumclosedsystemPopulationdynamicsisausefulframeworkforeconomicdynamics,whichisshapedbyecologicalconstraintsandmarket-sharecompetitionMetabolicgrowththeorydescribesessentialfeaturesofcreativedestructioninmoderneconomy.Logisticwaveletisabettermathematicalrepresentationfortechnologyprogressandgrowthcyclesthanharmoniccycleandrandomshocksinneoclassicaleconomics.Liberalizationpolicyin

WashingtonConsensusismisleadingforemergingandtransitioneconomies,sinceitignorestheuncertaintyandsunkcostsintechnologyadvancementandunevenglobalizationConclusionGrowthisanevoluti31ReferencesChen,Ping,"OriginoftheDivisionofLaborandaStochasticMechanismofDifferentiation,"EuropeanJournalofOperationalResearch,30,246-250(1987).Chen,Ping,“EvolutionaryEconomicDynamics:PersistentBusinessCycles,DisruptiveTechnology,andtheTrade-OffbetweenStabilityandComplexity,”inDopfer,Kurt,ed.,TheEvolutionaryFoundationsofEconomics,Chapter15,pp.472-505,

CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,(2019).Chen,Ping,EquilibriumIllusion,EconomicComplexity,andEvolutionaryFoundationofEconomicAnalysis,”EvolutionaryandInstitutionalEconomicsReview,5(1),81-127(2019).Chen,Ping,EconomicComplexityandEquilibriumIllusion,Routledge,London(2019).Arrow,KennethJ."TheEconomicImplicationsofLearningbyDoing",ReviewofEconomicStudies,39,155(1962).Maddison,Angus,ChineseEconomicPerformanceintheLongRun,OECD,Paris(2019).Solow,RobertM."AContributiontotheTheoryofEconomicGrowth,"QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,70(1),65-94(1956).Romer,PaulM.“IncreasingReturnsandLong-RunGrowth,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy,94,1002-38(1986).Rostow,WaltW.TheStagesofEconomicGrowth,3rded.,CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge(1990).Prigogine,Ilya,Allen,PeterM.,andRobertHerman,“LongTermTrendsandtheEvolutionofComplexity”,inErvinLaszloed.,GoalsforaGlobalCommunity:AReporttotheClubofRome,PergamonPress,Oxford(1977).ReferencesChen,Ping,"Origin32AcknowledgementsThegrowthcyclesbasedonspeciescompetitionmodelwasinspiredbyworksdevelopedinBrusselsandAustinin1970s-1980s,includingPeterAllen,St.LouisDeneubourg,GregoryNicolis,I.Prigogine,WaltRostow,andDavidKendrick.AcknowledgementsThegrowthcyc33ContactI/ContactInformationpchenccer.e34代謝增長(zhǎng)論：

市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，學(xué)習(xí)不確定性，

和技術(shù)（產(chǎn)業(yè)）小波PingChen陳平CenterforNewPoliticalEconomyFudanUniversity,Shanghai,ChinaPresentedat14thISSConferenceatBrisbane,AustraliaJuly2,2019北京大學(xué)國(guó)家發(fā)展研究院2019年11月22日代謝增長(zhǎng)論：

市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，學(xué)習(xí)不確定性，

和技術(shù)（產(chǎn)業(yè)）小35靈感的由來(lái)：觀潮而思四十五年文革長(zhǎng)征：太原重機(jī)廠的調(diào)查（1967年春）》西方禁運(yùn)：勞動(dòng)分工受市場(chǎng)規(guī)模限制李約瑟，費(fèi)正清，裴宜理，黃宗智，和普里戈金》用物理學(xué)方法研究歷史（1979-85）布魯塞爾學(xué)派：生命起源》螞蟻的勞動(dòng)分工模型（1977-81）》現(xiàn)代勞動(dòng)分工與東西方文明的分岔》人和螞蟻的差別？日本物理學(xué)家的觀察》引入文化因子（1983-87）從自組織》經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)》演化動(dòng)力學(xué)》復(fù)雜演化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論生態(tài)學(xué)的復(fù)雜性佯謬》亞當(dāng)-斯密悖論》一般斯密原理（2019，2019）中國(guó)模式的辯論》挑戰(zhàn)內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)論和知識(shí)積累倫》代謝增長(zhǎng)論（2019-14）靈感的由來(lái)：觀潮而思四十五年文革長(zhǎng)征：太原重機(jī)廠的調(diào)查（1936修正經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本觀念市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的本質(zhì)：價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)還是市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)？?jī)r(jià)格機(jī)制：邊際定價(jià)，成本加成定價(jià)，還是策略定價(jià)(strategicpricing)?技術(shù)進(jìn)步的基本模式：可預(yù)測(cè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不可預(yù)測(cè)的不確定性？經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的基本動(dòng)力是知識(shí)擴(kuò)散，還是資源與市場(chǎng)的開(kāi)發(fā)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)與淘汰？經(jīng)濟(jì)決策是完全信息下的理性優(yōu)化決策，還是陌生機(jī)遇下的試錯(cuò)和模仿？修正經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本觀念市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的本質(zhì)：價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)還是市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)37經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本問(wèn)題（1）經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否受資源約束（馬爾薩斯問(wèn)題）？》新古典人性的自私貪婪假設(shè)=資源無(wú)限》線性優(yōu)化模型資源有限》演化經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的非線性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)演化模型（2）如何描寫(xiě)技術(shù)更新對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的作用？新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)：噪聲驅(qū)動(dòng)》連續(xù)變化》優(yōu)化過(guò)程理論生態(tài)學(xué)：小波更迭》連續(xù)與躍遷》試錯(cuò)過(guò)程經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本問(wèn)題（1）經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否受資源約束（馬爾薩斯問(wèn)題）38李約瑟問(wèn)題-華勒斯坦佯謬

》

勞動(dòng)分工和東西方文明分岔》

代謝增長(zhǎng)論》產(chǎn)業(yè)（文明）興衰生態(tài)模型引入經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)(Samuelson1971)文化因子引入學(xué)習(xí)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)(Chen1987)資源約束》市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)(陳平2019)斯密悖論》復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)》穩(wěn)定性與復(fù)雜性的矛盾(Chen2019)邏輯斯蒂小波》創(chuàng)造性毀滅》知識(shí)新陳代謝》挑戰(zhàn)內(nèi)生增長(zhǎng)論(Chen2019,2019)李約瑟問(wèn)題-華勒斯坦佯謬》

勞動(dòng)分工和東西方文明分岔》

代39一石五鳥(niǎo)（1）生態(tài)學(xué)》引入行為因素（2）個(gè)人主義與集體主義的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)策略與趕超模式（3）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)轉(zhuǎn)為市場(chǎng)份額競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，邊際定價(jià)、成本加成定價(jià)，與策略定價(jià)（4）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)與復(fù)雜科學(xué)》重新定義國(guó)富=規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)+范圍經(jīng)濟(jì)（資源多樣性）》新的綠色增長(zhǎng)方式（5）一般斯密原理：勞動(dòng)分工受市場(chǎng)規(guī)模、資源種類(lèi)、環(huán)境漲落的限制（6）經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)力學(xué)統(tǒng)一理論（微觀，中觀，宏觀，制度）的共同模塊》生命周期的小波模型（7）虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)重新生態(tài)化》社會(huì)人與經(jīng)濟(jì)生態(tài)一石五鳥(niǎo)（1）生態(tài)學(xué)》引入行為因素40FundamentalCausesofAsianEmergence:TwoCompetingPerspectivesNeo-classicalperspective:nothingnew>techdiffusion+highinvestment>export-ledgrowth>convergenceingrowthandcultureEvolutionaryperspective:ecologicalcrisis+newwaveofindustrialrevolution>structuralchangesineconomiesandorganization>riseofEastAsia&declineofWestTheoreticalchallenge:whichgrowththeoryisrelevantintheglobalage?FundamentalCausesofAsianEm41WhichGrowthTheoryIsRelevanttoModernHistory?AverageAnnualGDPGrowthRate(1913-2019)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------Period WEuro EEuro Asia US fUSSR Japan China---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1913-50 1.19 0.86 0.82 2.84 2.15 2.21 -0.021950-73 4.79 4.86 5.17 3.93 4.84 9.29 5.021973-2019 2.21 1.01 5.41 2.94 -0.42 2.71 6.72---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Source:Maddison(2019),UNStatisticsWhichGrowthTheoryIsRelevan42UnevenGrowthinGlobalization

(AnnualRealGDPgrowthrateperdecade)Period 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s-------------------------------------------------------------------- China

6.2

9.310.410.5

Japan 3.8 4.6 1.2 0.7 US 3.2 3.2 3.4 1.6 Germany 2.9 2.3 1.9 0.9 EastAsia 4.4 5.5 3.3

4.0LatinAmerica 6.1 1.5 3.2 3.1 EastEurope 4.4 2.3-2.0 4.3WestEurope 3.1 2.3 2.1 1.1Australia&NZ 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.0World 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.5------------------------------------------------------------------ (DataSource:UNStatistics) UnevenGrowthinGlobalization43MainIssuesinEconomicTheory1.Equilibriumvs.non-equilibrium

growththeory>convergence/divergencevs.rise&fall2.Conceptofknowledgeandnatureoftechnology>staticvs.evolutionaryperspective3.Populationdynamicsofcreativedestruction>resourceconstrainsandtechnologywavelets4.Learningcompetitionandculturestrategy>differentgrowthmodeinWestandEast>labor-savingvs.resource-savingtechnology5.EastAsiaandChinaexperience>technologycycle,mixedeconomy,andhelpinghandMainIssuesinEconomicTheory44NeoclassicalGrowthTheory:

Convergencevs.divergencestoryExogenousgrowththeory(Solow1956):ConstantReturns>Convergence

Endogenousgrowththeory(Romer1990):Learningbydoing=KnowledgeAccumulation(Arrow1962)>IncreasingReturns>Divergence>PersistentdividebetweenRichandPoorPuzzle:howtounderstandriseand

fallofcivilizationsandgreatpowers?Metabolicgrowththeory(Chen1987,2019,2019,2019)NeoclassicalGrowthTheory:

C45EconomicInsightandTheoreticalModelingAdamSmith>divisionoflaborislimitedby

marketextentMarshall>

economicsshouldbeclosetobiologyanddynamicsHayek>knowledgeisadiscoveryprocessSchumpeter>developmentmeanscreativedestructionFrankKnight>riskanduncertaintyinmarketEconomicInsightandTheoretic46MethodologicalIssue:HowtoDescribe

TechnologyAdvancement?Technologyasrandomshock:Solowresidual,RBCschool>macroeconometricsTechnologyascontinuoustrajectory:knowledgecapital,increasingreturns>Technologyaslogisticgrowthturnedintologisticwavelets>populationdynamicsforSchumpeter’screativedestructionMethodologicalIssue:HowtoD47Unlimitedvs.Limited(Logistic)Growth

a1=0.6,a2=1,a3=1.4;K=4,Rlogis=4.0Unlimitedvs.Limited(Logisti48TheoreticalIssue:WhatDeterminestheSizeofMarketExtent?Smiththeorem:divisionoflaborislimitedby

marketextent

=marketniche>dependsonresourceandtechnology>logisticgrowth=varyingreturnstoscale>sourceofnonlinearity&complexityNeoclassicalproductionfunction>ignoresresourceconstraints>unlimited(exponential)growth>equilibriumthinkingandconsumerism>rootofecologicalcrisis+financialcrisisTheoreticalIssue:WhatDeterm49EvidenceofLogisticGrowth:

USAutomobileIndustry

(OutputasPercentageofGDP)EvidenceofLogisticGrowth:

50TechnologyWavelets,GrowthCycles,and

CreativeDestructionin

SpeciesCompetitionModelTechnologyWavelets,GrowthCy51ChinaApproachinAdaptingTechCycle:HelpingHandatVaryingStagesI(initialstage).>strategicplanning,technologyimport,techtransferfromscience&defensesectortocivilianindustryII(take-offstage).>opencompetitionundermixedeconomy,selectiveopeningin

industrialpark,governmentmatchingfundforFDI,marketregulationforvirtuouscompetitionIII(maturestage).>breakingmonopoly+encouraginginnovationIV(transitionstage).>assistanceforclose-downobsoleteindustry,re-educationoflaid-offworkers,reformpolicy&stabilizingpolicyChinaApproachinAdaptingTec52ObservablePatternsin

ChangingReturntoScaleCobb-Douglasproductionfunction>static(fixed)returntoscaleLogisticgrowth>logisticcurve>dynamicreturntoscale>dynamicincreasingreturns(firsthalf)+decreasingreturns(secondhalf)+constantreturns(infinitefuture)toscaleSpeciescompetition>logisticwavelets>rise&fallofwaveletsObservablePatternsin

Changin53OriginofCultureDiversity:

CultureAsLearningStrategyforEmergingMarkets&ResourcesEquilibriumthinking>cultureconvergence>universalvalueandinstituteNon-equilibriumthinking>culturediversity>varyingstrategiesforadaptingtochangingenvironment>coexistenceofindividualistandcollectivistsspeciesOriginofCultureDiversity:

54WhyEast

(AsiaandChina)IsDifferentfromWest?Twomodesofdivisionoflaborinhistory:East>resource-saving/labor-intensivetechnology>agriculturerevolution>riseofEastWest>labor-saving/resource-intensivetechnology>industrialrevolution>riseofWestCrisesofmoderncivilization:Globalwarming>ecologicalcrisisJobcrisis>machinecrowdingoutpeopleWhatistheimpactofinformationrevolution?WhyEast(AsiaandChina)IsD55WallersteinParadoxand

CausesofCultureDiversityHistoricalparadox>Whyresource-richEuropeanneedsmoreexistencespacewhilehighlypopulatedChinaneedsmorelaborduringcivilizationbifurcationabout14-17thcentury?Ecologicalconstraintsforgrowth>resource/populationratio>strategicchoiceunderuncertaintyCultureorientationshapedbyenvironment>laborsavingvs.resourcesavingtechnology>individualismvs.collectivism>pathdependenceindevelopmentprocessWallersteinParadoxand

Cause56ThreeTypesofLearningStrategiesandRiskAttitudesLearningbydoing(Smith:pin-making)>knowledgeaccumulation>gradualchange>risk-neutralcultureLearningbytrying(pioneersinfire,electricity)>knowledgecreation>abruptchange>risk-takingcultureLearningbyimitating(late-comers)>catch-upgame>risk-aversecultureModelingapproach:fromstatictheoryofriskaversiontononlineardynamicsofvaryingriskbehaviorThreeTypesofLearningStrate57CultureFactorandLearningStrategyin

FacingNewandUncertainTechnologyBehavioralfactorR(a)0<a<1Collectivism=riskaverse-1<a<0Individualism=risktakingCultureFactorandLearningSt58Resource,Culture,andLearningStrategyIndividualisticspeciesneedslarger

existencespace.Europeanpastorallife>labor-savingbutresource-consuming

economy

Chinesegrain-production>resource-saving

butlabor-intensive

economyResource,Culture,andLearnin59CompetitiveExclusion&CoexistenceinTwoSpeciesModelTheconditionofco-existenceTwocollectivistscannotcoexist;Twoindividualistsmaycoexist;No.ofspeciesNo.ofresourcesCompetitiveExclusion&Coexis60LandUsein1993(Maddison2019,p.28)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------RegionTotal(mhc)Arable(%)Pop(m)ArabLandperhead(hc)-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------China 959.7 10 1178.4 0.08Japan 37.8 11.8 124.8 0.04India 328.8 51.6 899.0 0.19Europe 487.7 27.8 506.9 0.26US 980.9 19.1 239.2 0.73USSR 2240.3 10.3 293.0 0.79Canada 997.6 4.6 28.4 1.58Australia 771.4 6.0 17.8 2.62Resourceintensity:Westmode~10timesormoreofEastmodeLandUsein1993(Maddison20161Catch-UpGamebetweenInnovatorsandImitators

ComplexpatternsofriseandfallbetweenindividualistandcollectivismCollectivistwillcatchandwinbyimitatingexistingtechnologyIndividualistwillsurvivebyfasterinnovation&learningbytryingemergingtechnologyCollectivisthasgreaterstabilityunderfluctuatingenvironmentAmixedsystemofindividualistsandcollectivistsismorestablethanapuresystemoftwoindividualistsCatch-UpGamebetweenInnovato62時(shí)代變遷與規(guī)范更新羅馬俱樂(lè)部報(bào)告》增長(zhǎng)的極限》系統(tǒng)工程興起（196？）數(shù)學(xué)的突破與質(zhì)疑：突變，分岔、混沌（1970’s）》生物學(xué)家懷疑(Gould)資本主義與社會(huì)主義競(jìng)爭(zhēng)誰(shuí)勝誰(shuí)負(fù)？》普里戈金不信（1986），蘇東瓦解后贊賞（1992）。勞動(dòng)分工的優(yōu)化模式（楊小凱）與演化模式（陳平）（1990）。金融危機(jī)與中國(guó)崛起》接受代謝增長(zhǎng)論時(shí)代變遷與規(guī)范更新羅馬俱樂(lè)部報(bào)告》增長(zhǎng)的極限》系統(tǒng)工程興起（63方法論問(wèn)題真實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)與貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡與非均衡的機(jī)制線性與非線性思維理論與計(jì)算機(jī)模擬薩繆爾森問(wèn)題(2019)：陳平工作是否會(huì)產(chǎn)生