WORLDAFFAIRS MAR24,JavierSolanawasEUHighRepresentativeforForeignandSecurityPolicy,Secretary-GeneralofNATO,andForeignMinisterofSpain.Heiscurrently oftheESADECenterflobalEconomyandGeopoliticsandDistinguishedFellowattheBrookingsInstitution.MADRID–EvenMikhailGorbachev,whopresidedoverthedissolutionoftheSovietUnionwithscarcelyashotfired,hasproclaimedhissupportforRussianVladimirPutin’sannexationofCrimea.ThepeopleofCrimea,hesays,havecorrectedahistoricSovieterror.Gorbachev’ssentimentiswidelysharedRussia.AftertheSovietUnion’sdisintegrationin1991,Russiawentfromsuperpowertobackwater.Threeex-SovietrepublicsjoinedtheEuropeanUnionandNATO,assertingtheirdesirenotonlyfordemocracyandprosperity,butalsotoavoidbeingpartofRussiaeveragain.BymovingtoannexCrimea,Putin,supportedmassively–thusfar–bydomesticpublicopinion,seemstobeendingthepost-imperialfrustrationofthepasttwoSince1991,however,Russiaexplicitlyrecognizedtheterritorialintegrityofonseveraloccasions.Suchrecognitionwaspartofthe1992YaltaAgreement,whichdividedtheBlackSeafleet,andofthe1997leasingcontractthatallowedthefleettoremaininSevastopol.’sterritorialintegritywasalsorecognizedinthe1994denuclearizationagreement,signedbytheUnitedKingdom,Russia,andtheUnitedStates,andagaininApril2011,whenthen-ViktorYanukovychextendedtheSevastopollease.TheUkrainianconstitutionprohibitedthereferendumonindependencethatwascarried

outinCrimeainthepresenceofRussiantroops.WiththevotetoleaveandjointheRussianFederationillegalbyanyreckoning,theinternationalcommunity,astheEUhasdeclared,cannotaccepttheRelationsbetweentheEUandhavealwaysbeencomplex.TheAssociationAgreementthatYanukovychrejectedlastNovember–adecisionthatincitedthepopularsthatbroughtdownhisernment–hadbeenundernegotiationsince2007.Essentiallyafree-tradetreatywithadditionalpoliticalelements,itssigningwaspostponedbecauseoftheimprisonmentofformerPrimeMinisterYuliaTymoshenko.In,YanukovychacceptedRussia’scounter-offer:a30%reductioninthepriceofRussiangassand$15billiontostaveoffdefault.Russianeedsifitistobuildso-calledEurasianUnion,theeconomicblocthatPutinisseekingwithKazakhstanandBelarus.Unlikethepartiestoafree-tradeagreement,themembersofacustomsunionliketheonePutinenvisagessettradepolicywithrespecttothirdstatesthroughtheestablishmentofcommonforeigntariffs.Thus,’sincorporationwouldbepatiblewithitsEUAssociationRussiaand,however,alreadyhaveafree-tradeagreement,viatheCommonwealthofIndependentStatesfree-tradeagreementsignedinOctober2011,whichiscompatiblewiththeproposedEUAssociationAgreement–inthesamewaythatMexicomaintainsfree-tradetreatieswiththeEU,aswellaswiththeUSandCanada.thuscouldhavemaintainednormalrelationswithitsneighbors,withtheEU,andwithRussia.ButRussianeedsfornationalistaswellaseconomicreasons.RussiannationalismhasalwaysconsideredanextensionofRussiaitself,byvirtueofitbeinghometoplacesthatareamongthedearesttoRussianidentity.PutinhascalledKyiv“themotherofallRussiancities.”Sevastopol,inturn,isadoublyheroiccity:duringthesiegeoftheCrimeanWarinthenineteenthcenturyandduringWorldWarII.ButunderstandingRussia’sfrustrationsandsentimentsdoesnotexcuseinvasionandannexation.TheEUAssociationAgreementthreatenednoneofRussia’sinterests,whethereconomicorcultural.RelationsbetweentheEUandRussiacannotbebasedonzero-sumgamesorspheresofinfluence.Solutionsmustbefoundthatenablealltowin.Moreover,Russia’sannexationofCrimeawilllikelydamageitscoreinterest:itspoliticalrelationshipwith,whichitwantstokeepfarfromEurope.So,forEurope,themostimportantprioritynowistohelptoensurestabilityandprosperityintherestofTheandmostpressingissueisstabilize ernmentinKyiv.ialelectiononMay25willbeakeymoment.Thevotemustbefreeandfair,accordingtodemocraticstandards.Moreover,itisessentialthatthestaterespectsnationalminorities’linguisticandculturalrightsand

promotessocialinclusion.Europeanaidshouldbeconditionedon’sperformanceinthisarea.Second,giventhattheriskofisgreatestin’sRussophoneeast,anOSCEmissionshouldbedeployedtheretoensurestability,security,andrespectforminorities,andtocondemn,ifnecessary,violationsofspecifiedcommitments.Thethirdissue?andperhapsthemostimportant?isthepressingneedforeconomicaid.TheEUhaspreparedan€11billion($15billion)aidpackage,thoughitissubjecttorulesandconditionssetbytheInternationalMonetaryFund,whichiscontributingpartofthetotal.Though’seconomyiscollapsing,the ernmentmaintainsexcessivespendingonsubsidiesthatarepatiblewithIMFaid.Atpresent,forexample,the ernmentspendsasmuchas16%ofitsbudgettosubsidizethepriceofenergyforeverycitizen.RussiawillnotskimponspendingafterannexingCrimea,andCrimeanswillbenefitfromthataidandaccesstoche Thoughthetourismindustryislikelytobemoribundforsometime,RussiansubsidiesmayleaveCrimeansrelativelybetteroff,especiallyfromtheoftheirethnickinineastern.EUandWesternaidpackageswillneedtotakethisintoaccount.TheproblemofCrimeawillnotberesolvedquickly.ThoughPutindeclaredinhisannexationspeechthatCrimeaisan“inseparablepart”ofRussia,hisbehaviorwillturnagainsthim.HeandRussiawillsufferinternationalisolation,whileUkrainiansarelikelyto eevenmoreinsistentonchoosingtheirownpath.穩(wěn)統(tǒng)·吞并克里米亞。用他的話講，克里米亞人民糾正了一個(gè)歷史的錯(cuò)誤。的情緒在俄羅斯受到廣泛的認(rèn)同。1991年后，俄羅斯就從超級(jí)大國(guó)降格為窮鄉(xiāng)僻壤。三個(gè)前加盟歐盟和北約，公開宣布他們不僅要實(shí)現(xiàn)和繁榮，還要避免以后再落入的魔爪。吞并克里米亞之舉迄今為止受到國(guó)內(nèi)的強(qiáng)大支持，似乎為前20年后但1991年以來，俄羅斯明確承認(rèn)的完整性。這樣的表態(tài)是1992年雅爾塔協(xié)定行塞瓦斯托波爾的1997年租賃合同。1994年由英、俄、美共同簽署的協(xié)議再次于2011年4月時(shí)統(tǒng)亞努科維奇續(xù)簽塞瓦斯托波爾租約時(shí)承認(rèn)了的完整性。以何種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量都以方式脫離加入俄，以歐盟為代表的國(guó)際社會(huì)宣布接受這一歐盟與之間的關(guān)系一直非常復(fù)雜。去年十一月被亞努科維奇 融入了政治因素的貿(mào)易協(xié)定，該協(xié)定的簽署因?yàn)橛壤?/p>