2025年8月14日|10:00PMHKT臺(tái)灣ODM評級調(diào)整;首次覆蓋AI/交換機(jī):神達(dá)/銳捷評為買入,紫光評為中性;下調(diào)和碩至賣出(摘要)我們認(rèn)為定制化和高速連接是AI基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施周期的關(guān)鍵趨勢。定制化能夠更好地滿足客戶需求、優(yōu)化成本，并降低依賴單一供應(yīng)商的集中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。高速連接我們首次覆蓋神達(dá)控股（定制化AI服務(wù)器；買入）、銳捷網(wǎng)絡(luò)（定制化交換機(jī)；買入）和紫光股份（進(jìn)軍AI服務(wù)器領(lǐng)域的本土交換機(jī)龍頭；中性）。我們預(yù)計(jì)800G交換機(jī)全球市場價(jià)值規(guī)模將在2025年下半年/2026年同比增長159%/92%（參見我們首次推出全球交換機(jī)潛在市場規(guī)模預(yù)測報(bào)告），這將推動(dòng)用于AI計(jì)算的全球數(shù)據(jù)中心交換機(jī)市場規(guī)模在2026年達(dá)到500億美元。我們將和碩評級從中性下調(diào)至賣出，因估值過高且上行空間不華區(qū)科技股。我們對生成式AI持積極看法，并看好領(lǐng)先ODM廠商（鴻海/工業(yè)富聯(lián)）、ASIC業(yè)務(wù)敞口較高的公司（緯穎），以及受益于規(guī)格升級的零部件廠商：液冷（奇鋐/富世達(dá)，雙鴻）和硅光子（聯(lián)亞、全新）。參見我們的全球服務(wù)器潛在市場規(guī)模爭論及高盛觀點(diǎn)：AI基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資始于2023年下半年，市場對投資可持續(xù)性以及未來增長推動(dòng)力感到擔(dān)憂。在初期投資過后及在推理需求不斷增長CSP（云服務(wù)提供商）對定制化和高速連接的需求將日益增長，從而進(jìn)一步本、性能并管理供應(yīng)鏈風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。神達(dá)控股在設(shè)計(jì)和定制化方面實(shí)力從主板拓展至系統(tǒng)，從而推高產(chǎn)品均價(jià)。隨著其客戶擴(kuò)展至全球們認(rèn)為其增長可預(yù)見性日益上升。銳捷網(wǎng)絡(luò)是領(lǐng)先的數(shù)據(jù)中心白是在高速連接（100G/400G/800G）領(lǐng)域，并且也正處于交換機(jī)規(guī)格升級過程中。估值：神達(dá)控股（買入），12個(gè)月目標(biāo)價(jià)為新臺(tái)幣113元（基于15.9倍的2026年預(yù)期市盈率及35%的2026-27年平均凈利潤同比增速）；銳捷網(wǎng)絡(luò)（買入），12個(gè)月目標(biāo)價(jià)為人民幣90.7元（基于39.9倍的2026年預(yù)期市盈率及37%的2026-27年平均凈利潤同比增速）；紫光股份（中性），目標(biāo)價(jià)為人民幣27.5元（基于29.3倍的2026年預(yù)期市盈率及22%的2026-27年平均凈利潤同比增速）；和碩（評級從中性下調(diào)至賣出），目標(biāo)價(jià)為新臺(tái)幣70.50元（基于10.3倍的2026年預(yù)期市盈率及13%的2026-27年平均凈利潤同比增速）。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：云服務(wù)提供商對AI基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的資本支出強(qiáng)于/弱于預(yù)+852-2978-1681|verena.jeng@+852-2978-2930|allen.k.chang@+852-2978-6466|ting.song@+852-2978-1478|xuan.zhang@高盛與其研究報(bào)告所分析的企業(yè)存在業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系，并且繼續(xù)尋求發(fā)展這些關(guān)系。因此，存在可能影響本報(bào)告客觀性的利益沖突，不應(yīng)視本報(bào)告為作出投資決策的唯一因素。有關(guān)分析師的信息，見信息披露附錄，或參閱/research/hedge.html。由非美國附屬公司聘用的分析師不是美國FINRA的注冊/合格研究分析師。Datacenterecosystem圖表1:Datacenterecosystem2025年8月14日22025年8月14日3SwitchinDatacenterandCampus圖表2:DatacenterswitchesandCampusswitchesdeployment2025年8月14日4圖表3:Switchesforrack-levelAIserverdeployment2025年8月14日5GlobalSwitchmarketopportunity5E2026ENumberofswitchports(Byspeed)Ports,kunits189,008209,762223,016251,598203,825219,116222,156261,494933,936873,383906,591964,333DatacenterswitchPorts,kunits33,22838,64338,29141,63936,10249,59651,27857,586127,847151,800194,562248,7931GandbelowPorts,kunits8248478499311,0521,4011,3601,5334,9593,4515,3477,54810GPorts,kunits4,5864,5606,0046,1885,3645,4316,8656,40922,88821,33824,06925,36325GPorts,kunits12,82813,93012,56214,98013,36913,18015,58416,30156,85854,30058,43560,15040/50GPorts,kunits8751,2337918316991,3761,3021,3195,8003,7304,6974,626100GPorts,kunits8,82711,54211,75713,10310,54519,32217,98723,82222,03145,22971,676111,902400GPorts,kunits3,3734,1324,4083,2682,9264,5353,8402,3598,86215,18113,6606,825200GPorts,kunits1,3601,0545705305746146596255,8253,5132,4722,472800GPorts,kunits5551,3451,3501,8081,5733,7363,6795,2176245,05814,20629,907CampusswitchPorts,kunits155,780171,119184,725209,959167,723169,520170,877203,909806,089721,583712,029715,5401GandbelowPorts,kunits145,735156,027169,952192,652157,156154,467156,356186,872742,859664,366654,851657,68410GPorts,kunits8,97313,57612,94115,1568,66013,30412,68214,85355,54250,64649,50049,32625GPorts,kunits7049081,2021,3981,3759081,1781,3704,8844,2124,8314,80440/50GPorts,kunits2313242923712653733074011,5341,2181,3451,505100GPorts,kunits1372843383822674693554131,2701,1411,5032,222YoY%%-12%-9%-11%5%8%4%0%4%-6%4%6%Numberofswitchports(Byusage)Ports,kunits189,008209,762223,016251,598203,825219,116222,156261,494933,936873,383906,591964,333DatacenterswitchPorts,kunits33,22838,64338,29141,63936,10249,59651,27857,586127,847151,800194,562248,793AIcomputingPorts,kunits11,66416,84216,88316,36312,56027,41624,58628,05724,04161,75192,618143,834GeneralcomputingPorts,kunits21,56321,80121,40825,27623,54222,18026,69229,529103,80690,049101,944104,959CampusswitchPorts,kunits155,780171,119184,725209,959167,723169,520170,877203,909806,089721,583712,029715,540Mix%%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Datacenterswitch%18%18%17%17%18%23%23%22%14%17%21%26%AIcomputing%6%8%8%7%6%13%11%11%3%7%10%15%Generalcomputing%11%10%10%10%12%10%12%11%11%10%11%11%Campusswitch%82%82%83%83%82%77%77%78%86%83%79%74%Switchshipment(Byspeed)Ports,kunits5,5936,1226,5347,4246,0076,2036,3217,44928,37925,67425,98026,7481GandbelowPorts,kunits4,5754,8965,3316,0434,9384,8594,9185,87523,35220,84620,59020,72010GPorts,kunits4065495716444175645826372,3722,1692,2002,21925GPorts,kunits3563763514223703504094291,6411,5071,5571,54140/50GPorts,kunits2737263024383438175120134134100GPorts,kunits1231331281641471931902545225497851,061400GPorts,kunits6072785955807051168269256150200GPorts,kunits3123121112131413135775151800GPorts,kunits143636514410610515214137407871Switchshipment(Byusage)Ports,kunits5,5936,1226,5347,4246,0076,2036,3217,44928,37925,67425,98026,748DatacenterswitchPorts,kunits7277787658677689109851,0813,2023,1363,7444,411AIcomputingPorts,kunits1612192142101713513243694338041,2141,899GeneralcomputingPorts,kunits5665585516575975596617122,7682,3332,5302,512CampusswitchPorts,kunits4,8675,3455,7696,5575,2395,2935,3366,36825,17722,53822,23522,337ASPperport525959566070707144576878DataCenterswitch1862142272262372312242471512142352401Gandbelow38343534623232313835383510G60555555695152526356565325G72697662556471597269635940/50G178169193189204155177174195180174162100G/400G348374393418469337354376355386374331200G190190190190181177177177200190178162800G558558558558519513513513600558514468Campusswitch2424252222232421272423221Gandbelow19181917171718162118171710G78667467766270637671676525G18218016013618816915012818816015815240/50G206175194174166171178160220185168165100G342300333348400300316330364331330331YoY%%26%28%36%29%15%19%18%26%30%20%15%RevenuesbyportsUS$m8,96510,76811,59812,47511,21913,22113,58716,19139,73943,80654,21866,374DataCenterswitchUS$m5,2516,7127,0717,7797,4549,3539,49911,84518,33526,81338,15150,4701GandbelowUS$m312930326644444818812220226510GUS$m2732493323403722783573311,4431,1941,3381,33625GUS$m9199569539357368501,1119564,0713,7633,6543,51940/50GUS$m115141108114109145164167801479586541100G/400GUS$m3,3454,3874,7875,2485,2516,0095,8187,55310,29217,76624,63130,408200GUS$m2582001081011041091161101,165667439399800GUS$m30975175310098171,9181,8892,6783742,8227,30214,001CampusswitchUS$m3,7144,0554,5264,6973,7653,8684,0884,34621,40416,99216,06815,9041GandbelowUS$m2,7882,8563,2023,2952,6962,6862,8573,03615,48412,14111,27610,99410GUS$m7038949631,0146608248879344,2003,5743,3053,19925GUS$m12816319219125915317717692067476472840/50GUS$m4857576444645564337225226248100GUS$m4785113133107141112136462378496736YoY%%2%3%9%26%25%23%17%30%10%24%22%2025年8月14日6Keyfeatures:switches圖表4:BOMcostofdatacenterswitchPricerangefordatacenterswitchiswide.WeusedamainstreammodeltocalculatetheBOMcost.Dataasof3Q25.資料來源：公司數(shù)據(jù),DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch圖表5:Comparisonsof400G/800G/1.6TswitchesPortSpeed400G800G1.6TTransmissionspeed(a)400GTwiceof400GTwiceof800G#ofports(b)32/64/128Switchcapacityinfull-duplexmode(axbx2)25.6/51.2/102.4T51.2/102.4/204.8T102.4/204.8/409.6TTypicalcongfi.ofcorrespondingopticaltransceivers4x100GPAM4/8x50GPAM48x100GPAM4/4x200GPAM416x100GPAM4/8x200GPAM4OpticaltransceiverPluggablePluggable/CPOPluggable/CPOPortASPAroundUS$1,000Around1.8x400Gport'sASPHigherthan800GportPowerconsumptionAround10WAround20WAround30WApplicationMetropolitanAreaNetwork,DatacenterAIdatacenter,HyperscalecloudcomputingNextgenerationAIdatacenter,NextgenerationTelecomStageCommercialized(2018-2024)Commercializationinprogress(2022-present)Earlystage(2025-future)MajorsuppliersRuijie,UNIS(H3C),Huawei,Cisco,Arista,Juniper,Nvidia,AcctonPAM4:pulseamplitudemodulation4-level資料來源：公司數(shù)據(jù),DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2025年8月14日7圖表6:Switchunder4applications2025年8月14日8Ruijie(301165.SZ):High-speedconnectionandChinaCloudtodrivegrowthahead;initiateatBuyRuijieisalocalswitchsupplierandleaderintheswitchwhiteboxmarket.RuijiehasacomprehensiveclientbaseinChinaacrossmajorCSPs(BBAT),Telcos,enterprises(?nancialinstitutions,education,hospitals,hotels),andbene?tsfromrisingdemandonAIcomputingandhigh-speedtransmission,whichissupportingtheswitchmixupgradeandbetterspeci?cationtowards400G/800G.RuijieisthelargestswitchsupplierforBytedance(alsohasthehighestAIcapexamongBBAT).Thecompanystarteditsnetworkingbusiness(brand+whitebox)since2003andnowo?erscomprehensiveproductsacrossswitch,router,AP(AccessPoint),cybersecurity,andclouddesktop,andprovidescustomizedsolutionstomeetclientsírequirements.Thecompanyrankstop1inChinain200G/400Gdatacenterswitchonitscapabilitiesinhigh-speed800Gswitchandcustomizedsolutions.Thestocktradesat25x2026EP/E,whichislowerthanourtargetP/Emultipleof39.9x,whichisderivedfromthesectorP/Evs.forward-yearNIYoY,implyinganattractivevaluation.WeinitiateRuijieatBuy.Catalyst:(1)ChinaCloudcapexcycle:+91%/+31%YoYin2024/25EtoUS$44bn,andtostayatahighlevelthrough2027E(+2%CAGRin2025-27E),(2)RisingAIspendingfromCSPclientsinChinatodriveRuijiedatacenterswitchesshipmentrampup,withglobalmarketsharereaching9%in2030E(vs.3%in2024).Meanwhile,thecompanyísSMBswitchesshouldgrowonmixupgradetowards100Gswitchandproducto?eringwithahigherprice-to-performanceratio,(3)Whiteboxsolutionforcustomizeddemand:RuijieisstrongincustomizationwithaccumulatedexperiencesinwhiteboxsolutionsthatcatertoCSPsígrowingcustomizedneeds(forexample,#ofports,chipsetetc.),(4)TheemergenceoflocalAIchipsetsupportsAIserverrampupinChina,andalsodrivesswitchdemandforAIcomputingwhichisusedinAIinferencingandhasseenstrongdemandsincetheemergenceofDeepSeekAImodelinlate2024,and(5)High-endproductexpansion:Ruijieo?ersAInetworkingsolutionsacrossvariouschipsetplatformswithitsin-houseOS(operatingsystem),withcapabilitiesofproductexpansion(e.g.higherspeedtowards1.6T/3.2T,CPOswitch,liquid-cooledswitchetc.)Valuation:WeinitiateRuijieNetworksatBuy.Our12MTPisatRmb90.70basedonatargetP/Emultipleof39.9x2026EEPSestimates.OurtargetP/EisderivedfromsectorP/Evs.forward-yearEPSYoY,anditisbetweenthecompanyísavg.P/Eat30xandavg.+1stdP/Eat40x,andre?ectsourpositiveviewonthecompanyísdatacenterswitchexpansion.Comparedtopeers,theratioofourtargetPEmultipletoforwardyearfundamentals(NIYoYandOPM)isat1.1x,withintherangeofpeersíratioof0.4x-1.2x.2025年8月14日9Ruijieinsixcharts圖表7:Ruijieís800Gdatacenterswitch圖表9:DatacenterswitchisthekeydriverRmbm8,0007,000Datacenterswitch:(1)specupgrade(800G),and(2)ChinaCloudRmbm8,0007,000Capexexpansion6,000Capexexpansion5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000SMBswitchon(1)5,0004,0003,0002,0001,000(400G),and(2)GenAIinvestments-Netincome(2024)Netincome(2025E)GP-800GdatacenterGP-OtherNetincome(2024)Netincome(2025E)GP-800GdatacenterGP-OtherdatacenterGP-SMBswitchGP-WirelessproductsGP-RouterGP-CybersecurityGP-ClouddesktopGP-OtherproductsOpexOthersNetincome(20230E)switchswitchswitchswitch圖表11:DatacenterswitchdrivingthegrowthaheadRmbm45,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000-GMdownduetoincreasingwhiteincreasingwhitebox70%68%61%53%34%44%65%20242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EDatacenterswitchSMBswitchAPControllerRouterCybersecurityOthersGM(RHS)40%35%30%25%20%15%圖表8:RuijieíscustomersbyproductAsof2024SegmentsProductsCustomersNetworkequipment(83%of2024Rev)DatacenterswitchAlibaba,Tencent,Baidu,ByteDance,ChinaMobile,ChinaTelecom,ChinaUnicomSMBswitchRestaurants,hotels,financialinstitutions,hospitalsAccesspointEnterprises,schoolsRouterDigitalChina(dealer),enterprisesCybersecurity(4%of2024Rev)SWG,firewall,softwareAgriculturalBankofChina,ChinaLifeInsurance,schools,SOEsClouddesktop(5%of2024Rev)Cloudterminals,softwareDigitalChina(dealer),enterprises資料來源：公司數(shù)據(jù),DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch圖表10:Ruijieís100G/400Gswitchrevenuecontributionremainsat85%+withlowerASP(whiteboxsolution)Ruijieandpeersí100G/400GswitchrevenuemixandASPtrendin2023/24/1Q25100G/400GASPperport450400250200Cisco202320242024Arista20242023202320232024202420232024202320%40%60%80%100G/400GswitchRevmixintotaldatacenterswitchRevRuijieHuaweiCiscoArista資料來源：公司數(shù)據(jù),高盛全球投資研究部,Gartner圖表12:Ruijieandpeersí2024R&DexpenseandratioUS$m8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000-CiscoZTEAristaRuijieWNCAccton2024R&Dexpense2024R&Dratio(RHS)25%20%15%10%5%0%(1)FinancialhighlightsRevenues:+23%CAGRin2025-30E,drivenby(1)Datacenterswitch:revenue+35%CAGRin2025-30Ewithportsshipmentgrowthat36%CAGRdrivenbyrisingswitchdemandforAIcomputingandbetterchipsetsupply.Ourtotal#portsshipmentimpliedglobalmarketshareindatacenterswitchesTAMisat4%/9%in2025E/2030E,and100G/400Gportsimpliedmarketshareisat8%/12%in2025E/30E(2)Datacenterswitch-whitebox:+37%CAGRin2025-30Ewithshipmentrampupandhigherwhiteboxcontributionoftotalswitchesfrom73%to80%in2025-30E,supportedbyrisingcustomizeddemandfromCSPclientsandcompanyísaccumulatedexperiencesinwhiteboxswitches.GM:downfrom38%in2025Eto31%in2030Egivenhigherrevenuecontributionfromdatacenterwhiteboxswitches(32%/55%oftotalrevenuesin2025/30E)carryinglowerGMat18%-19%vs.branddatacenterswitchesGMat35%-37%.Opexratio:33%in2025Eand22%in2030Eongrowingrevenuescaledrivenbydatacenterswitchesandhigheroperationale?ciency.Taxrate:Thecompanyístaxratewasat-42%/-31%in2024/1Q25duetotheweighteddeductionofR&Dexpenses,supportedbytaxbene?tpolicies,andweexpectittograduallyincreaseto-18%/-12%/9%in2025E/2026E/2030Ewithits400G/800Gdatacenterswitchesachievingthecommercializationstage.NI:+30%CAGRin2025-30E.CCCdaysincreasedto140daysin2024,mainlyonhigherinventorydaysandreceivabledayswhenexpandingitsswitchbusiness.Weexpectthecompanyísinventorydaysandreceivabledaystograduallyimproveonrisingdatacenterswitchrevenuescale,withpartofproductsoutsourcedtothird-partysuppliers.ROEwasdownto13%in2024from33%/35%in2020-21,andweexpectittorecoverto20%-42%in2025-30E,giventheimprovingnetmarginandhigherassetturnoverwithcomprehensivesolutionsacrossswitch,accesspoint,cybersecuritysoftware,router,andclouddesktop.FCFbottomedin2024,andweexpectittoimprovein2025-30EtoRmb5bnin20230E,giventhehighernetincomeamidlargerbusinessscaleandimprovingworkingcapitalmanagement.圖表13:Ruijieís?nancialsummaryIncomestatement2022202320242025E2026E2027ECashowTotalrevenue26,780Netincomepre-preferreddividends552401574907Costofgoodssold(6,834)(7,112)(7,181)(8,924)(12,875)(17,995)D&Aadd-backSG&A(2,310)(2,322)(2,504)(2,486)(3,409)(4,419)Minoritiesinterestsadd-back------(2,042)(2,185)(1,886)(2,251)(2,622)(2,611)Net(inc)/decworkingcapital(966)(888)(133)(120)(265)Otheroperatingprofit/(expense)------Otheroperatingcashflow247433--EBITDA222222287891,1941,905Cashflowfromoperations(246)8692198711,2851,583Depreciation&amortization(82)(100)(114)(150)691Capitalexpenditures(218)(310)(485)(301)(420)(536)Interestincome212121Acquisitions-(15)----Interestexpense(47)Divestitures--0---Income/(loss)fromuncons.subs.------Others3(79)(584)Others31322126440.00Cashflowfrominvestments(214)(404)(1,070)(348)(466)(582)Pretaxprofits422406770Incometax246Dividendspaid(common&pref)(38)(473)(346)(544)(775)(1,018)Minorities------Inc/(dec)indebtCommonstockissuance(repurchase)2768202-519------Netincomepre-preferreddividends552401574907Otherfinancingcashflows2,055(836)(214)---Preferreddividends------CashflowfromfinancingTotalcashflowFreecashflow2,1131,653(463)(1,108)(643)558(41)(892)(266)(544)(21)570(775)44865(900)1,047Post-taxexceptionals------Netincome552401574907Capextorevenuesratio2%3%4%2%2%2%BalancesheetBalancesheetEPS(basic,post-except)(Rmb)0.712.272.99Cash&equivalents2,9412,298EPS(diluted,post-except)(Rmb)0.712.272.99Accountsreceivable6882,7573,209DPS(Rmb)0.910.560.610.96Inventory3,0772,8753,3674,4574,7157,118Dividendpayoutratio(%)82%79%60%60%60%60%Othercurrentassets315315315315Freecashflowyield(%)-4%3%-2%2%2%3%Totalcurrentassets6,8844806,6334936,9845027,8537149,21712,172GrowthmarginsNetintangiblesSalesgrowth23%2%23%39%34%Totalassets8,0798,3649,50310,62312,34015,727EBITDAgrowth-3%-90%953%246%51%60%Accountspayable7022,1903,3895,978EBITgrowth-18%n.m.n.m.440%56%62%Short-termdebt2,3592,3592,3592,477Netincomegrowth20%-27%43%58%42%31%Othercurrentliabilities767EPSgrowth20%-35%42%58%42%31%Totalcurrentliabilities3,6053,8924,8175,5746,7749,481Grossmargin39.7%38.4%38.6%37.8%35.6%32.8%Long-termdebt------EBITDAmargin2%0%2%5%6%Otherlong-termliabilitiesOPM-1%5%5%7%TotalliabilitiesTotalcommonequityMinorityinterestTotalliabilities&equityNetcashpershareROAROEInventorydaysReceivablesdaysPayabledays3,7844,295-8,0792.588%244,0804,285-8,3640.815%9%4,9294,575-9,503(1.68)6%5,6864,938-10,623(1.71)9%466,8855,455-12,340(1.64)25%419,5936,134-15,727(1.67)29%41(2)ValuationandrisksWederiveour12MTPofRmb90.70onatargetP/Eof39.9x2026EEPS.OurtargetP/Eof39.9xisderivedfromthecorrelationbetweenP/EandEPSgrowthofRuijieíspeers,basedonRuijieís2026-27EEPSYoYgrowthatanavg.37%.OurtargetP/Emultipleisbetweenthecompanyísavg.P/Eat30xandavg.+1stdP/Eat41x,re?ectingourpositiveviewonthecompanyísdatacenterswitchexpansion.OurtargetP/EimpliedPEG&Misat1.1x(P/EmultipletoforwardyearNIYoYandOPM),higherthanpeersíaveragePEG&Mratioat0.7x,re?ectingRuijieísleadingpositioninChinaísswitchmarketandaccumulatedexperiencesincustomizedproducts.WeinitiateRuijieNetworksatBuy.圖表14:TargetP/Emultipleat39.9xisderivedfrompeerscorrelationbetweenP/EandEPSgrowth圖表15:Ruijieís12MforwardP/E60X2Q23avg.P/Ereached5080x,whichweseeasoutliers40+1stv40x30avg30x20-1stv20x-Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25Jul-25資料來源：公司數(shù)據(jù),高盛全球投資研究部,Re?nitivEikon圖表16:RuijieandpeersíPEG&MAcctonTicker301165.SZ000938.SZ2345.TW資料來源：公司數(shù)據(jù),高盛全球投資研究部,彭博圖表17:RuijiepeerscompCompanyTickerMarketcap2025E2025E2026E2026E2027E2025E2026E2027E2027E4342%Networkequipmentpeers265,755AristaANET4048%99,43125,430887ZTE0763.HK/000063.SZ23,615Accton2345.TWHuaqin603296.SSInspur000977.SZ46%UNIS000WNC6285.TWAlphaNetworks3380.TW476AverageCybersecurity&clouddesktoppeersSangfor300454.SZ6,0804042%4%QiAnXin688561.SS4%Venustech002439.SZ2,77747%DPtech300768.SZ43Topsec002212.SZAverage4%ClosepricesasofAug13,2024.HuaqinonAPACconvictionlist資料來源：公司數(shù)據(jù),高盛全球投資研究部,Re?nitivEikonM&AFramework:WeassignanM&Arankof3(indicatingalowprobabilityofthecompanybeingacquired)toRuijieNetworks,giventhecompanyhasconcentratedshareholdings,withitsparentcompany(Star-netCommunication)holdingnear45%oftotalshares,andthereforewedonotincludeanyM&Acomponentinourpricetarget.KeyrisksnSlower-then-expectedChinaCloudcapexexpansion:ChinaCloudcapexexpansionisoneofthemaindriversforRuijieísdatacenterswitchbusiness.IftheChinaCloudcapexexpansionisslowerthanexpected,itwoulddragthecompanyísoverallrevenuegrowthandhaveanegativee?ectonRuijieísearnings.nLower-than-expecteddemandforhigh-speedswitch:Weexpecttherisingmarketdemandforhigh-speeddatacenterswitchtodrivetherevenuegrowthofRuijie,givenitshigherASPthanothermodels.Ifthemarketdemandforhigh-speedswitchislowerthanexpected,therecouldbedownsiderisktoourestimates.nFiercer-than-expectedpricingcompetition:AsadatacenterswitchsupplierservingmajorChinaCSPs,weseethecompanyhaslimitedbargainingpowerwithclients.Ifthepricingcompetitionamongdatacenterswitchsuppliersis?ercerthanexpected,therecouldbedownsiderisktoourestimates.Valuation:Wederiveour12MTPofRmb90.70onatargetP/Emultipleof39.9x2026EEPS.OurtargetP/Eof39.9xisderivedfromthecorrelationbetweenP/EandEPSgrowthofRuijieíspeers,basedonRuijieís2026-27EEPSYoYgrowth.Keyrisks:Slower-then-expectedChinaCloudcapexexpansion;Lower-than-expecteddemandforhigh-speedswitch;Fiercer-than-expectedpricingcompetitionRuijieisaleadingICTequipmentsupplierinChina,o?eringdatacenterswitch,SMBswitch,accesspoint,cybersecurityproducts,clouddesktop,etc.WeexpectRuijietoleverageitsaccumulatedexperiencesinwhiteboxdatacenterswitchandrideonChinaísCloudcapexexpansion,andtherisingmarketdemandforhigh-endswitch(high-speed,liquid-cooled,supportingLPO/CPOopticaltransceivers)whichalsosupportsthecompanyísgrowthduetoitshigherASP.WeareBuyratedonRuijieNetworkswithtargetP/EimpliedPEG&Mratioat1.0x,higherthanpeersí0.7x,re?ectingourpositiveviewonRuijeísleadingmarketpositionandclosepartnershipwithChinaísmajorCSPs.Mitac(3706.TW):AIserversinexpansionwithhighercustomerpenetration;fromMotherboardtoSystem;initiateatBuyMitacisaserver/switchsupplier,expandingfrommotherboardtosystem/racks,fromgeneralserverstonetworkracksandAIservers,andfrombrandmakerforenterprisestoODMfordatacenters.WeexpectMitacísexpansionofproductformat,producto?eringsandcustomerstodrivethecompanyísgrowthincomingyearsonitsstrongcustomization,timelyservices,anddiversi?edproductionsites(includinginUS),andtorideonthegrowingcustomizationtrendinAIservers.Thestockcurrentlytradesat11.6x2026EPE,whichwebelieveisattractivegivenitsavg.35%NIYoYin2026-27E.WeinitiateMitacatBuy.Catalyst:(1)Frommotherboardtosystem:Mitacisexpandingfromgeneralservermotherboardtomoresystemlevelproducts:networkingracksandAIservers,whichisdriving