RESEARCHMorganstanleyRESEARCH通過(guò)靈活的合作模式加快國(guó)家化步伐，凸顯了恒瑞長(zhǎng)期成估值溢價(jià)合理,原因在于行業(yè)領(lǐng)先的管線(xiàn)質(zhì)量和增長(zhǎng)速度。我們的SOTP分析表物制藥公司中擁有最廣泛和最均衡產(chǎn)品組合和管線(xiàn)通過(guò)多種模式加速全球化，產(chǎn)生可持續(xù)的對(duì)外許可收入：截至2023年,全球醫(yī)藥達(dá)成14筆對(duì)外許可交易,交易總價(jià)值150億美元，涵蓋不同技術(shù)平臺(tái)和開(kāi)發(fā)階段的資產(chǎn)。在其強(qiáng)大的管道、以及全球生物制藥公司從中國(guó)引入資我們的目標(biāo)價(jià)意味著2026年的市盈率為46倍。因?yàn)槠湫袠I(yè)領(lǐng)先的規(guī)模、管道質(zhì)量和長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的全球化潛力,我們認(rèn)為其相對(duì)于同業(yè)的溢價(jià)為合理。我們的SOTP分析表FoundationMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+股票分析師Alexis.Yan@+8522239-7953股票分析師Yanru.Tao@+8523963-1041研究助理Clinton.Ng@+8522848-6659AsiaPacific股MorganstanleyMorganstanley2MorganstanleyMorganstanley恒瑞是一家植根于中國(guó)的大型生物制藥公司，在醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)品的研究、臨床量最多。其持續(xù)的研發(fā)投入，特別是自2000年A股IPO以來(lái)，逐步豐富了其創(chuàng)新藥物組發(fā)投資，占其2024年收入的29.4％（包括費(fèi)用化的研發(fā)支出和資本化研發(fā)支出），是行業(yè)領(lǐng)先的研發(fā)和商業(yè)化能力助其搭建深入而廣我們認(rèn)為，恒瑞是中國(guó)生物制藥公司中擁有最廣泛和最均衡產(chǎn)品組?橫跨腫瘤、代謝和心血管疾病、免疫系統(tǒng)和呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病和神經(jīng)系統(tǒng)疾病領(lǐng)域。根據(jù)恒瑞在研產(chǎn)品的臨床進(jìn)展，公司預(yù)計(jì)將獲批上市創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品及適應(yīng)癥（Exhibit2:恒瑞：商業(yè)化的N資料來(lái)源：公司數(shù)據(jù)。截至2025年6月30Exhibit3:恒瑞：預(yù)計(jì)2025-27年有47項(xiàng)NDA/BLA批準(zhǔn)MorganStanleyResearch34年年吐年年療瑞開(kāi)發(fā)了涵蓋各種疾病亞型和治療需求的“一站式”解決方案，在組化方面產(chǎn)生了積極的協(xié)同效應(yīng)。例如，在乳腺癌方面，恒瑞在前線(xiàn)和了在分子類(lèi)型、機(jī)制和靶點(diǎn)方面廣泛的在研產(chǎn)品，用于治療所有主要％，MorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch5NeoadjuvantAdjuvant1L2L3L+HER2+/HR(+/-)PyrotinibADC)MonoADC)2.Pyrotinib(combo)1.SHR+A1811(HER2ADC)2.Pyrotinib(Combo)1.SHR+A1811(HER2ADC)2.3rd-genHER2ADCHR+/HER2-~70%1.Dalpciclib(CDK4/6)1.Dalpciclib(CDK4/6)combo2.SERD+dalpiciclib1.Dalpicilib(Combo)2.SHR-A1811(Combo)3.OralSERD+dalpiciclib4.ERPROTAC(mono/combow.dalpiciclib)1.SHR-A1811(HER2ADC)3.3rd-genHER2ADC4.OralSERDTNBC~15%1.Fuzuloparib(monoorcombow.apatinib)-BRCA+patientsonly2.PD-L1combowithHER2ADC1.0代2.0代3.0代4.0代HRS9531HRS-7535HRS9531HRS-472916.8%(6.0mg)6.17（120mg）/-9.36%(//MorganstanleyMorganstanley6合Trastuzumabrezemacen//36.7（8.0mg/kg）議/////資料來(lái)源：公司數(shù)據(jù)。來(lái)自DESTINY-Lung01試驗(yàn)的非小細(xì)胞肺癌數(shù)據(jù)，來(lái)自DESTINY-Breast02試驗(yàn)的HER2+BC數(shù)據(jù)，來(lái)自DESTINY-Breast04試驗(yàn)的HER2-低BC數(shù)據(jù)，來(lái)自DESTINY-Breast04的TNBC數(shù)據(jù)，來(lái)自DESTINY-PanTumor02的UC數(shù)據(jù)于2025年AACR和ASCO公布的TrastuzumabRezetacen/SHR-1811（HER2ADC）數(shù)據(jù)MorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch7加adebrelimab41.7％，），客戶(hù)和管理層對(duì)全球化日益投入的支持，我們預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)將達(dá)成更多交易cardiovasculardise52%57%59%8期全球(不包括大中日全球(不包括大中日全球(不包括大中日全球(不包括中國(guó)日抗全球(不包括大中日3日全球(不包括大中日全球(不包括中國(guó)日2日2日日全球(不包括亞MorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch9(Rmbmn)2022A2023A2024A2025E2026E2027ERevenue21,27522,82027,98533,69740,42246,310YoY%7.3%22.6%20.4%20.0%14.6%Productsales21,21322,37725,01030,36636,78542,336YoY%5.5%11.8%21.4%21.1%15.1%Licensingrevenue62682,7003,0573,3633,699Otherbusiness562752752752752022A2023A2024A2025E2026E2027EInnovativedrugsales8,1259,89112,95517,26123,60831,293YoY%21.7%31.0%33.2%36.8%32.5%%ofdrugsales38.3%44.2%51.8%56.8%64.2%73.9%Marketeddrugs17,13123,10729,209Pipelines-PoSadj.5012,084Genericdrugsales13,08812,48612,05513,10413,17611,043YoY%-4.6%-3.5%8.7%0.6%-16.2%MorganstanleyMorganstanley10Netincome(exNetincome(ex-licensingrevenue)20,0008,0006,0004,0002,000026.1%21.1%Netmargin%Netmargin%(ex-licensingNetmargin%25.1%25.5%22.6%.8,4568,9204,3024,3023,90,4043,9133,88330%25%20%5%0%2022A2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E人民幣升值和近期關(guān)稅緊張局勢(shì)有所緩和的背景下，香港市場(chǎng)獲得了強(qiáng)大％，發(fā)階段以及恒瑞在海外的發(fā)展歷史仍有限，市場(chǎng)對(duì)該公司的全球化機(jī)SegmentvalueinSegmentvalue%oftotalvalueMethodologyValuation473.2GenericdrugsExistinginnovativedrugs205.743%3.5xP-peaksalesPipelineinnovativedrugs(mainlydomestic)31%3.0xP-peaksales(PoSadjusted)ImpliedvalueofglobalizationopportunitiesImplying22x2025after-taxcollaborationincome40.4醫(yī)藥股的平均市盈率為22.0倍和13.6倍(不包括翰森制藥）。翰森是另一家領(lǐng)先的制藥MorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch11我們認(rèn)為，恒瑞憑借業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模、由端到端的研發(fā)和商業(yè)化能力支量、以及相應(yīng)的全球化潛力（仍然被市場(chǎng)低估），按盈利倍數(shù)計(jì)TickerCompanyName26E'24-27e24A600276-CNJiangsuHengruiPharmaceuticalsCo.,Lt1276-HKJiangsuHengruiPharmaceuticalsCoA-sharePharmacompanies600062-CNChinaResourcesDouble-CranePhar300006-CNChongqingLummyPharmaceutica462300194-CNFuanPharmaceutical002317-CNGuangdongZhongshengPharmaceuticalCo.,Ltd.Cl002653-CNHaiscoPharmaceutic44%002437-CNHarbinGloriaPhar600664-CNHarbinPharmaceutic600829-CNHPGCRenmintongtaiPharmaceuticalC600079-CNHumanwellHealthcare(Group002262-CNJiangsuNhwaPharmaceuti600812-CNNorthChinaPharmaceutica000597-CNNortheastPharmaceutica441600789-CNShandongLukangPharmaceutical600196-CNShanghaiFosunPharmaceutical(Group)Co.,L600613-CNShanghaiShenqiPharmaceuticalInve447600420-CNShanghaiShyndecPharmaceuticalCo002399-CNShenzhenHepalinkPharmaceuticalGroup002422-CNSichuanKelunPharmaceuticalC002294-CNShenzhenSalubrisPharmaceutica600329-CNTianjinPharmaceuticalDaR600521-CNZhejiangHuahaiPharmaceuticalCo.,Lt600267-CNZhejiangHisunPharmaceuticalCo.,Lt002332-CNZhejiangXianjuPharmaceuticalCo002020-CNZhejiangJingxinPharmaceuticalCo.600216-CNZhejiangMedicineC42%48%Average3692-HKHansohPharmaceutica2196-HKShanghaiFosunPharmaceutical(Group)Co.,L9989-HKShenzhenHepalinkPharm3933-HKUnitedLaboratoriesInt1558-HKYiChangHECChangJiangPharmaceuAverageAverage(excludingHanso1801-HKInno45%Average64.6x資料來(lái)源：摩根士丹利研究部對(duì)其所覆蓋的A/H股上市制藥公司的預(yù)測(cè)。其他未被摩根士丹利覆蓋的制藥公司的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)為FactSet普遍預(yù)期。部分H股上市生物科技公司的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)為VisibleAlpha普遍預(yù)期。截至202512f恒瑞醫(yī)藥(600276.SS)fMorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch13.MorganstanleyMorganstanley14CoverageUniverseInvestmentBankingClients(IBC)OtherMaterialInvestmentServicesClients(MISC)StockRatingCategory%ofTotal%ofTotalIBC%ofRatingCategoryrMISCOverweight/Buy149740%37245%25%70241%Equal-weight/Hold163244%38046%23%77645%Not-Rated/Hold40%00%0%20%Underweight/Sell59316%7910%13%23314%3,7268311713rMorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch15MorganstanleyMorganstanley16fMorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch17/Company(Ticker)Rating(AsOf)Price*(07/08/2025)AlexisYan,CFA3SBio(1530.HK)HK$24.55AdiconHoldingsLtd(9860.HK)O(08/03/2023)HK$6.83AierEyeHospitalGroup(300015.SZ)U(07/08/2024)Rmb12.28MorganstanleyMorganstanley18AlibabaHealthInformationTechnology(0241.HK)U(05/28/2025)HK$4.24AngelalignTechnologyInc(6699.HK)E(03/17/2023)HK$54.90BeautyFarmMedicalandHealthIndustry(2373.HK)E(02/20/2023)HK$28.50ChinaMedicalSystem(0867.HK)E(05/16/2025)HK$12.14ChinaResourcesMedical(1515.HK)U(03/17/2022)HK$4.13CSPCPharmaceuticalGroup(1093.HK)O(08/15/2012)HK$7.86DianDiagnosticsGroupCoLtd(300244.SZ)E(07/12/2022)Rmb14.76GuangzhouKingmedDiagnostics(603882.SS)U(07/08/2024)Rmb28.14GushengtangHoldingsLtd(2273.HK)O(07/08/2024)HK$34.05HansohPharmaceuticalGroupCoLtd(3692.HK)O(07/16/2019)HK$30.65HuadongMedicineCoLtd(000963.SZ)U(05/06/2024)Rmb39.22HygeiaHealthcareHoldingsCo.,Ltd.(6078.HK)O(07/30/2020)HK$15.16ImeikTechnologyDevelopmentCoLtd(300896.SZ)E(02/06/2024)Rmb173.91JDHealthInternationalInc.(6618.HK)E(05/28/2025)HK$43.50JiangsuHengrui(600276.SS)O(07/01/2025)Rmb53.40JiangsuHengrui(1276.HK)O(07/01/2025)HK$60.20JinxinFertilityGroupLtd(1951.HK)E(03/31/2025)HK$2.95MicroPortScientificCorp.(0853.HK)E(09/25/2023)HK$8.56MindrayBio-Medical(300760.SZ)O(07/15/2020)Rmb217.33PeijiaMedicalLtd(9996.HK)O(06/18/2020)HK$6.70PingAnHealthcareandTechnology(1833.HK)E(05/28/2025)HK$9.66ShandongWeigao(1066.HK)E(07/10/2020)HK$5.93ShanghaiUnitedImagingHealthcareCo(688271.SS)E(02/21/2025)Rmb127.90ShenzhenNewIndustries(300832.SZ)O(05/28/2024)Rmb55.05SichuanKelunPharmaceuticalCoLtd(002422.SZ)U(05/16/2025)Rmb33.40SimcerePharmaceuticalGroup(2096.HK)E(05/16/2025)HK$10.58SinoBiopharmaceutical(1177.HK)O(04/09/2019)HK$5.37Zylox-TonbridgeMedicalTechnologyCo.(2190.HK)O(08/05/2021)HK$19.48DaisyChengAsymchemLaboratories.Inc(002821.SZ)U(06/06/2023)Rmb87.77AsymchemLaboratories.Inc(6821.HK)E(06/06/2023)HK$80.10GenscriptBiotechCorporation(1548.HK)O(08/14/2024)HK$14.84HangzhouTigermedConsulting(300347.SZ)E(04/24/2024)Rmb56.42JoinnLaboratoriesChinaCoLtd(603127.SS)E(06/06/2023)Rmb24.75JoinnLaboratoriesChinaCoLtd(6127.HK)E(02/26/2024)HK$19.42Pharmaron(3759.HK)O(09/25/2024)HK$17.02Pharmaron(300759.SZ)E(09/25/2024)Rmb24.86JackLinAbbiskoCaymanLtd(2256.HK)O(11/17/2021)HK$9.43Akeso,Inc.(9926.HK)O(05/28/2020)HK$109.80DualityBiotherapeuticsInc(9606.HK)O(05/22/2025)HK$283.00EverestMedicinesLtd(1952.HK)E(03/15/2024)HK$67.00HUTCHMED(China)Ltd(0013.HK)E(04/25/2023)HK$25.20E(04/25/2023)US$15.93InnoCarePharmaLtd(9969.HK)E(09/11/2023)HK$12.98InnoventBiologicsInc(1801.HK)O(12/03/2018)HK$82.35KeymedBiosciencesInc.(2162.HK)O(08/10/2021)HK$45.80RemeGenCo.,Ltd.(9995.HK)E(05/08/2024)HK$68.00VISENPharmaceuticals(2561.HK)O(04/29/2025)HK$44.40ZaiLabLtd(ZLAB.O)O(12/14/2023)US$34.94ZaiLabLtd(9688.HK)O(12/14/2023)HK$27.40LaurenceTamApeloaPharmaceuticalCoLtd(000739.SZ)O(02/28/2025)Rmb14.35BeijingTongrentang(600085.SS)U(11/03/2014)Rmb35.63BeijingTongrentangChineseMedicine(3613HK)O(01/14/2015)HK$880MorganStanleyResearch19ChinaNationalAccordMedicinesCorpLtd(000028.SZ)U(07/25/2022)Rmb25.04ChinaResourcesPharmaceuticalGroupLtd(3320.HK)O(06/16/2022)HK$5.18ChinaResourcesSanjiuMedical&Pharma(000999.SZ)O(08/30/2019)Rmb31.11ChinaTraditionalChineseMedicine(0570.HK)U(01/17/2025)HK$2.22DaShenLinPharmaceutical(603233.SS)O(07/25/2022)Rmb17.08DongEEJiaoCo.(000423.SZ)O(05/16/2024)Rmb51.38FuShouYuanInternationalGroupLtd(1448.HK)E(03/19/2025)HK$3.79JiangzhongPharmaceuticalCo.Ltd.(600750.SS)O(02/08/2024)Rmb21.89JointownPharmaceuticalGroup(600998.SS)U(07/26/2021)Rmb5.25LBXPharmacyChain(603883.SS)O(03/14/2022)Rmb19.93NanjingKing-friendBiochemical(603707.SS)O(02/28/2025)Rmb11.03ShandongXinhuaPharmaceuticalCoLtd(000756.SZ)U(02/28/2025)Rmb16.10ShanghaiPharmaceutical(601607.SS)E(08/17/2021)Rmb17.99ShanghaiPharmaceutical(2607.HK)O(08/17/2021)HK$11.84ShenzhenHepalinkPharmaceutical(002399.SZ)U(06/16/2023)Rmb11.86SinopharmGrou