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BCG

CITIESOFTHEFUTURE

RevivingtheCityCenter:

FromO?ceBuildingstoKnowledgeCampus

By

MasakiHamura

,RichardFlorida,

VladislavBoutenko

,andNataliaKonyukova

ARTICLEAPRIL11,202515MINREAD

Thedowntownhasbeendeclareddead—avictimofCOVID.Fewerpeoplearefrequenting

restaurantsandretailspacesinthecitycenter,andmorearespendinginthesuburbs.Accordingtoresearchfromthird-quarter2023covering118majorcitiesin50countries,suburbanspendinghas

1

grown15percentagepointsmorethanthatofdowntownareas(theso-calleddoughnute?ect).Whatwasonceathrivingsocioeconomiccentralbusinessdistrict(CBD)ecosystemlookstobeunraveling.

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Butourresearchsuggestsadi?erentnarrative:theworld’scitieshavearrivedatamomentof

reinvention

andrevival.It’struethatthecitycenterisstruggling,whichouranalysisof38CBDs

and13oftheworld’slargestandwealthiestmegacitiescon?rms.Wealsoidenti?edseveral

exceptions,however,withTokyothemostnotable.Alreadyamodelofurbaninnovation,theworld’slargestcity—hometomorethan37millionpeople—has?guredout

howtoadapt

tonewworkingnorms.

Theworld’scitieshavearrivedatamomentofreinventionandrevival.

InTokyo,theCBD—traditionallyacenterforo?ceswithlargenumbersofworkerscommuting

fromfar-?unglocations—isbeingtransformedintowhatwecallaknowledgecampus.ThisnewtypeofCBD

attractsbothbusinessesandtalent,

o?eringopportunityandoptionality,and

satisfyingawidecross-sectionofneeds:companyleaderswhowanttoenhanceproductivity,

employeeswhowantopportunityforsocialinteraction,commercialdevelopersthatwanttokeeptheirbuildings?lledwithtenantsandchargecompetitiverent,andcitiesthatwanttoattract

businessesandboostthetaxbase.Inthefuture,eventheo?ceitselfwillbeamicrocosmoftheCBD.

TheDeclineoftheCentralBusinessDistrict

OurCBDstudyassessedcommercialvacancyratesandrent,andfoundthatinmanyCBDs,

developershavebeenhithard,facingrisingvacancies.Decliningcommercialrentisalso

commonplace,anindicatorofdevelopers’negativeexpectationsregardingthefutureofthe

market.Ofthe13citiesinthisanalysis,3stoodoutfortheircomparativelystrongprogress.TokyoandOsaka,Japan,aswellasSeoul,SouthKorea,achievedpositiveoutcomesonvacancyandrentmetricsandperformedstrong?nanciallyoverall.(SeeExhibit1.)

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Theotherwisenegativepicturere?ectstheimpactofCOVID,whichhasbeenfeltdeeplyinthe

CBDsthathavelongbeenhometowhite-collarjobs—andthusthesourceofcities’economicandculturalvitality.(See“De?ningtheCentralBusinessDistrict.”)

De?ningtheCentralBusinessDistrict

ACBD,forourpurposes,canbede?nedasthegeographiccenterofbusinessactivityinacity,characterizedby:

·SubstantialSize.Itfeaturesaconcentrationofbusinessactivitieswithinaradiusof1kilometer.

·NotableEconomicScale.Thenetaddedvalueorgrossregionalproductofthedistrictmustaccountforatleast2.5%ofthetotaleconomicscaleofthemetropolitan

area.

·HighBuildingDensity.Thedistrictmusthavea?oorarearatio(FAR)of4orhigher,comprisingmedium-to

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high-risebuildings,generallyaveragingfourtoeight

stories(ormore).

A2023studyonpandemicrecoveryinNorthAmericancitiesfoundthatfoottra?cinroughlyhalfofthe62citiessurveyedremainsbelow50%ofprepandemiclevels,andonly4ofthosecitieshavefullyrecoveredtheirbustle.2InAsia,whereurbanrecoveryhasbeenstronger,pedestriantra?cincitieslikeSingapore,Seoul,Bangkok,andKualaLumpurisestimatedtobe10%to20%belowpre-COVIDlevels.

ThenegativeoutlookforCBDscancreateaviciouscycle:reducedactivityinCBDstranslatestolowertaxrevenues,whichleadstodecreasedfundingforareaupkeep,whichfurtherdiminishestheCBD’sattractiveness.Long-termconsequencescouldincludesigni?cantdepopulationofcitycenters.Butthistrajectoryisn’taforegoneconclusion.

Newnormsforwhite-collarworkarechangingtheworld’scities.Onanygivenday,peoplemaybeloggedonathome,acoworkinglocation,aco?eeshop,ortheircompany’sheadquarters.Inmostcities,thisexperienceisunevenatbest;formanyemployees,itinvolvesaseriesofdisjointed

transitionsbetweensystemsandspaces.There’saclearopportunityforcompaniesanddevelopersto?xthisproblem—whichiswhatweobservehappeninginTokyo.

FiveFactorsDrivingTokyo’sUrbanResilienceandInnovation

Tokyoisnotonlythemostpopulousandwealthiestcityintheworldbutalsoavibrantculturalhubtoppingmanylivabilityindicators,suchasthenumberofrestaurants,museums,andotherculturalamenities.Intermsofeconomice?ciency,TokyoCBDsoutperformthoseinmostmegacities

thankstoacombinationoflowvacancyrates,growingo?cesupply,andminimaldeclinesinrentalrates.

Tokyo’ssuccessisnoaccident—itistheresultofinnovativeurbanplanninganddevelopmentpractices.Thecityhasconsistentlysettheblueprintforhyper-connected,high-density

infrastructure,

inspiringurban-planningstrategiesaroundtheglobe.

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Tokyo’ssuccessisnoaccident—itistheresultofinnovativeurbanplanninganddevelopment

practices.

AmongTokyo’smostcelebratedurban-planningachievementsareitscentury-oldcommitmenttotransit-orienteddevelopment(TOD)—whichenabledthecitytomovewellaheadofother

megacitiesinshiingfromcardependencytorail-basedcommuting—anditsstrategicrelaxationof?oorarearatio(FAR)regulationsthatdetermineallowablebuildingsizerelativetolandareainordertoguidehousingdevelopment.Inparticular,TokyoprovidedFARincentivesfordevelopmentsthatincludedresidentialcomponents,especiallyhigh-risehousingincentralareas.Thisapproachsigni?cantlyincreasedhousingsupplywhilecurbingsharprisesinpropertyprices.Forinstance,

despitesubstantialpopulationgrowthinMinatoWard,housingpricesrosebyonlyabout45%overtwodecades—amodestincreasecomparedwithSanFrancisco’s231%surgeundersimilar

demographicpressure.3

Westudied?vemajorcentralTokyoCBDs—MarunouchiandNihonbashi,Roppongi,Shibuya,Shinagawa,andShinjuku—andfoundthat?vekeyfactorsdrivetheirsuccess.

DensityDoneRight.All?vecentralTokyoCBDsarenotonlycompactbutareamongthemostintenselyusedurbanspacesglobally.Whileeverycitycenterisdenserthanitssurroundings,TokyoCBDsstandoutfortheirhyper-density,balancinghighemploymentconcentrationwithdiverse

urbanfunctions.

ThecentralpartofTokyosigni?cantlyexceedsthedensityofCBDsinothermegacities.Tokyohasapopulationdensityofmorethan70,000peoplepersquarekilometer,comparedwithapproximately35,000inManhattanandaround17,000inbothinnerLondonandParis(all?guresrepresent

daytimepopulation4).

The?veTokyoCBDsarealsoinherentlydesignedaswalkableareaswithseamlessaccessto

essential,lifestyle,andpremiumamenities—frompublictransportandhealthcareto?nedining,

luxuryretail,

andculturalinstitutions.Themultifunctiondensitysustainseconomicandsocial

vibrancyduringandbeyondo?cehoursbyenablingplannedandspontaneousinteractions.ThisfeaturesetsTokyoCBDsapartfromothereconomicallysuccessfulsectoralclusterslikeSilicon

ValleyorBoston’sRoute128.

SuperiorTransportationandConnectivity.Asthelargestcityintheworld,Tokyonaturally

dealswiththechallengesofcongestionandtheresultinge?ectoncommutingtime.ButstatisticsshowthatTokyoresidents,onaverage,spendroughlythesameamountoftimecommutingasdo

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thoseincitieslikeParis,London,andNewYork—andsigni?cantlylessthanpeopleincitieswiththelongestcommutingtimes,suchasIstanbulorS?oPaulo.

Tokyolooksevenmoreimpressivewhenweadjustthecommuting-time?gurestoaccountforthecity’ssizeandpopulation.Forexample,aerthisareaadjustment,Tokyohasthesecond-lowest

commutingtimeamongthe13citieswestudied.Weusedthreeadditionalcoe?cients:thesizeoftheareadividedbycommutingtime(thehigher,thebetter),numberofpassengersusingthe

subwayperyearrelativetotheurbanpopulation(thehigher,thebetter),anddensity-to-

commuting-timecoe?cient(thelower,thebetter).Theseprovideamoreaccurateassessmentofthetransportationsystem’se?ciency,takingthecity’ssizeintoaccount.(SeeExhibit2.)

Whatisthesecret?All?veTokyoCBDsarelocatedatmajorpublictransportationhubs,each

withinaroughly1-kilometerradiusfromitscentralstation.Thiscompactscaleensuresthatmosto?cebuildingsareonlyafewminutes’walkfromtheneareststation.Additionally,manystationsareconnecteddirectlytoo?cebuildingsviaextensiveundergroundpedestriannetworks,shieldingcommutersfromwind,rain,andextremeheat.

AlmostallworkersaccessTokyoCBDsviapublictransportation,primarily

rail,

bene?tingfromoneoftheworld’smostextensiveande?cienttransitsystems.Withhigh-frequencytrainservicesandseamlessconnectionsbetweenlines,commutingtoandwithinTokyoCBDsisremarkablysmooth.Thiswell-integratedtransportinfrastructure,alongwithenhancementssuchastransitterminals,expandedpedestriannetworks,andcommercialfacilitieswithinstations,makesTokyoCBDsmoreconvenientandaccessiblecomparedwithotherglobalbusinessdistricts.

AnElevatedMixed-UseApproach.UnlikemostCBDsinothercitiesweanalyzed,TokyoCBDsdisplayaremarkablediversityinlanduse.Forone,theyarenotdominatedbyo?cespaces;

instead,signi?cantportionsareallocatedtocommercialuse,residentialproperties,greenspaces,

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andotherpublicareas.Forinstance,theshareofo?cespacesinTokyo’scoreCBDsrangesfrom26%to38%.ThesoleexceptionisMarunouchiandNihonbashi,whereo?cepropertiesslightly

exceed50%.Incontrast,well-knownCBDsinothercitiesdedicatemorethan60%oftheirareatoo?cespaces.Forexample,Paris’sLaDéfensereachesalmost70%andLondon’sCanaryWharfexceeds80%.(SeeExhibit3.)

Moreover,TokyoCBDshavecarvedoutanotableamountofspaceforresidentialproperties.In

Roppongi,forexample,residentialspacesmakeupnearly25%ofthetotalarea,o?eringastark

contrasttoo?ce-dominateddistrictsinotherglobalcities(whereresidentialspacetypicallydoes

notexceed15%to18%).ThepresenceofhousinginCBDsensuresthatessentialservices,dining,andentertainmentarereadilyavailable,enhancingoveralllivability.Unliketraditionalbusiness

districts,whichbecomedesertedaerworkinghours,TokyoCBDscontinuetoseefoottra?cintheeveningsandonweekends,supportinglocalbusinessesandcontributingtoasafer,moredynamicurbanenvironment.

ASectoralFocus.MostTokyoCBDsfeaturesectoralspecialization,whichmarksashiforthecity:historically,itsCBDsfeaturedamoreuniformmixofcorporateheadquarters,government

o?ces,andconventional?nancialinstitutions.Roppongihasemergedasaninternationaltech-

drivendistrict,whileMarunouchiandNihonbashihavefurthersharpenedtheirspecializationin?nanceandprofessionalservices.Shibuyastandsoutforitsstrongpresenceofdigitalcreative

industries,andShinagawaisincreasinglycharacterizedbygrowingconcentrationsofITaswellaswholesaleandretailtradeactivities.

ToquantifythediversityofsectorrepresentationacrosstheseCBDs,weusedtheHer?ndahl-

HirschmanIndex(HHI),ameasurecommonlyappliedinmarketconcentrationanalysis.Theindexcalculatesthesumofthesquaredmarketsharesofeachindustrywithinagivenarea.AlowerHHIindicatesamorediversesectoralcomposition,whileahigherHHIsigni?esindustryconcentration.Generally,amarket—orinthiscase,aCBD—isconsidereddiverseiftheindexfallsbelow1,500

andconcentratedifitreaches1,500orhigher.

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Usingthismeasure,fourofthe?vemajorCBDsincentralTokyocanbeclassi?edassector-

focused,meaningtheyhaveastrongconcentrationinspeci?cindustries.TheonlyexceptionisShinjuku,withitsmorebalancedmixofindustries.Thetwomostsector-concentratedCBDsareShinagawaandMarunouchiandNihonbashi,whereafewdominantindustriesshapethe

economiclandscape.(SeeExhibit4.)

CBDswithsectorspecializationcreateawin-win:tenantsgainlocalscaleandcommandglobalcredibilityandin?uenceintheirrespectivesectors,whileworkershaveanopportunityfor

serendipitousinteractionswithpeers—leadingtobetterinnovation—aswellasmoreoptionsintheircareerpaths.

UniqueCharacter.Inthecontextofcities,characterincludesbothtangibleelements,suchasarchitecture,design,andtypesofrestaurantsandshops,aswellasintangibleelements,like

atmosphereandevents.

InTokyo,aCBD’scharacteroendependsonthesectorithouses.Roppongi,anIThub,featuresamoderndesignthatseamlesslyblendshigh-techarchitecturewithnature-inspiredelements.Greenspacesbumpupagainstcutting-edgestructures.TheShibuyadistrict,adigitalandcreativecluster,hasadynamicstreetscapewithvibrantarchitectureandaneclecticmixofcolorsandforms.It

blendsbold,avant-gardearchitecture,neon-litstreets,andadiversecollectionofcommercialandculturalspaces.Incontrast,MarunouchiandNihonbashi,hometomajorbanksandprofessionalservice?rms,presentamoreformalappearance—harmonizingmodernskyscraperswithwell-

preservedhistoricarchitecture.

Thesedi?erencesinarchitecturalandspatialdesignarefurtherhighlightedbyadistinctvariationinamenities.WhiletheprestigiousMarunouchiandNihonbashidistrict—populatedwithbankersandstrategicconsultants—alsoboaststhemostluxurioushotelsandwell-establishedhigh-end

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brands,theever-vibrantShibuyathrivesasahubforcutting-edgefashionboutiques,innovativepop-upexperiences,clubs,bars,andlive-musicvenues.

ThereisaclearconnectionbetweenCBDs’characterandthetalenttheyattract.CentralTokyo

developersfocusedonaddressingtheindividualpreferencesofthepeopleworkingthere,rather

thanjusttheneedsofcorporations.Itisanongoingprocess;inourinterviewswithkeydevelopers,theytellustheycontinually?ne-tuneCBDstomeetevolvingrequirements.Thevibrant,dynamic,andchaoticShibuyatargetsthecreativeclass,whilethemorebourgeoisMarunouchiand

Nihonbashicatertoprofessionalsin

?nanceandstrategyconsulting.

ThereisaclearconnectionbetweenCBDs’characterandthetalenttheyattract.

Corporationshavecometoappreciatethisapproach.GooglefacedatoughdecisionwhenchoosingthelocationforitsnewJapaneseheadquarters,debatingbetweenRoppongiandShibuya.

Ultimately,thecompanysettledonShibuya,drawnbythedistrict’svibrantcreativeatmosphere,whichalignedwiththevaluesandmindsetofitsemployees.

TheRiseofthe“KnowledgeCampus”

Whenconsideredtogether,the?vefactorsabovestarttoresembleauniversitycampus,which

providesintegratedspacesforbothworkandlifewithintightlyknitcommunitiesofprofessionals.Clusteredtogetheroncampuses,professorsandstudentscanseamlesslycontinuetheir

intellectualexchangebeyondthecon?nesoflaboratoriesandlecturehalls,e?ectivelyblurringthedistinctionbetweenworkandleisuretime.

Acaseinpoint:whenFrancisCrickandJamesWatsonannouncedtheirgroundbreakingdiscoveryofthedouble-helixstructureofDNAin1953,theydidn’tdoitfromthelabwheretheyworkedat

CambridgeUniversity.TheywentnearbytoTheEaglepub,knowingitwasapopulargatheringspotforfellowscientistsandresearchers.

Similarly,theburgeoningCBDmodelinTokyocanbecharacterizedasaknowledgecampus.By

bringingtogetheremployeesfromthesamesectorsandfosteringinteractionsbeyondo?cewalls,thesecampusesenhancetheexchangeofideas—acriticaldriverofproductivityintheknowledgeeconomy.

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Theideathatsectorspecializationincreasesproductivityisnotnew—itwas?rstintroducedby

AlfredMarshallinthelate19thcenturyandlaterexpandedbyMichaelPorterintheearly1990s.Recentresearchonproductivityemphasizesthathighere?ciencyisnotmerelyaresultof

corporateproximitybutrathertheenhancedinteractionsamongtalentedindividuals,whichencourageknowledgespillovers.

Numerousdata-drivenstudiessupportthisinsight.Forexample,a2024studyexaminedtheroleofcollaborationinscienti?cproductivitybyanalyzingthenetworksofNobellaureates.AccordingtoaJune2024articleinScientometrics,theresearchfoundthatcollaborativee?ortssigni?cantly

contributetoscienti?c

innovation

andproductivity,underscoringtheimportanceofinteractionsamongskilledprofessionalsingeneratingknowledgespillovers.

Tofostertheseinteractions,aknowledgecampusshouldbluro?ceboundaries,mixingtalent

regardlessofcompanya?liations.Itisanecosystemwherepeoplecanchoosetheiridealwork

environment,eitherinsideoroutsidetheo?ce.Ofcourse,evenTokyoCBDsarenotquitethereyet.Butwehaveobservedmeaningfule?ortsbymajordeveloperstoexpandpublicspaceswithintheCBDandbroadenthevarietyofactivitiesavailabletoemployeesbeyondtheiro?cewalls.

CBDsinothercitiesarealsomakingstridesinthisarea:LaDéfenseandCanaryWharfrecently

announcedtransformationprogramsaimedatsubstantiallyincreasingtheshareofresidential

properties.Similarly,LowerManhattanhasexperiencedatleastadoublingofitsCBDresidentialpopulation.

Transformationprograms

alsoaimtoenhancepublicspacesbycreatingvibrantareasthatencourageinteractionsandserveasthebackboneoftheknowledgecampus.Forexample,theCanaryWharfmasterplanincorporatesagenerousopen-spaceandpublic-realmstrategyasa

centralelement.

WhatCEOsCanDoToday

Withthetectonicshiinhowwework,selectingano?celocationhasbecomemorestrategicthanever.Therightchoicecanattractandhelpretaintoptalentwhileenhancingproductivity.Buta

poorlocationmayleadtothelossofvaluableemployees,reducedperformanceamongthosewhostayowingtodissatisfactionandlowermotivation,missedopportunitiesforgreaterproductivity,andine?ectiveuseofspace.

Infact,wearealreadyseeingwarningsignsfromemployeesreturningtotheo?ce,indicatingthatspacesandprocesseshaveremainedunchanged—workersstillarenotexperiencingincreased

interaction,collaboration,ormentoring.CEOsshouldactnowtoavoidblowback.

SelectorcodesigntherightCBD.StartbyidentifyingtheCBDsthatalignwiththeknowledgecampusconceptandcontributetohigherproductivityandengagementbyenhancingaccessibility,promotingknowledgespillovers,andfosteringindustrycollaboration.Choosetheonethatbest?tsyoursectorbothgloballyandlocally.

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CEOs’in?uenceinshapingtheecosystemisgrowing.Thenextstepmayinvolvepartneringwithdevelopers,tenantassociations,anddistrictgovernmentstointegrateelementsoftheknowledgecampusmodel—mixed-usespaces,pedestrian-friendlyenvironments,andimproved

transportation

access—intobroaderstrategicinitiatives.

AlignyourcompanywiththenewCBDecosystem.Thiscanincludeseveralpoliciesandareasoffocus:

·Enhance?exibleworkarrangements.Exploreavarietyof?exibleworkmodelsthat

balanceremoteworkwithin-personcollaboration.De?neo?ce-basedtasksthatmaximize

face-to-facevalueratherthansimplyfocusingontimespentonsite.Accordingtoa2023BCGsurveyon

hybridworkstrategies

,employeesclearlydistinguishbetweentasksthataremoree?cientlyexecutedfromhomeandthosethatyieldhigherproductivityintheo?ce.Butmanycompanies’policieshaveyettore?ectthisnuancedunderstanding.

·Expandworklocationoptions.Reevaluateworkspaceopportunitiestakingintoaccount

modernpractices,suchasworkingfromaco?eeshop.AspreviousresearchfromBond

UniversityandtheUniversityofMünstersuggests,somealternativeworkspacescan

contributetohigherproductivity.Separately,the“co?eeshope?ect”—supportedbynumeroussurveys—demonstratesthatambientbackgroundnoiseinpublicspacescanenhance

productivityandsparkcreativity.

·Fosterstrongerprofessionalcommunities.Encourageemployeestoconnectandpartnerwithpeersintheirindustry,reinforcingtheprinciplethatcollaborationdrivesproductivity.

Companiescansupportthisbyprovidinglearninganddevelopmentstipends,organizingnetworkingevents,promotingcross-companyprojects,andinvestingincoworking

memberships.

·Ensurethatworkplacepoliciesalignwithbusinessdistrictrealities.Health,

insurance,

privacy,andreimbursementpoliciesshouldre?ectthenewwaysemployeeswork—whetherintheo?ce,sharedspaces,orremotelocations.Ratherthanapplyingaone-size-?ts-allmodel,companiesshouldcreateadaptableframeworksthataccommodatedi?erentworkforceneeds.

.Sellthevalue.ClearlycommunicatehowtheCBDecosystemenhancesemployees’

professionalgrowth,productivity,andwork-lifebalance,ratherthansimplymandatingo?ceattendance.Asnumerousstudiesonorganizationalvisionandemployeeengagementhaveshown,companiesthate?ectivelyde?neandsharethestrategicroleoftheiro?ce

environmentwiththeirsta?tendtofosterhighervoluntaryattendanceandemployeebuy-in.

Themostforward-thinkingcompanieswillnotjustadapttoshiingworkpatternsbutactivelyshapethecitieswheretheyoperate.Businessdistrictsareevolving,andtheorganizationsthat

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