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BCG
CITIESOFTHEFUTURE
RevivingtheCityCenter:
FromO?ceBuildingstoKnowledgeCampus
By
MasakiHamura
,RichardFlorida,
VladislavBoutenko
,andNataliaKonyukova
ARTICLEAPRIL11,202515MINREAD
Thedowntownhasbeendeclareddead—avictimofCOVID.Fewerpeoplearefrequenting
restaurantsandretailspacesinthecitycenter,andmorearespendinginthesuburbs.Accordingtoresearchfromthird-quarter2023covering118majorcitiesin50countries,suburbanspendinghas
1
grown15percentagepointsmorethanthatofdowntownareas(theso-calleddoughnute?ect).Whatwasonceathrivingsocioeconomiccentralbusinessdistrict(CBD)ecosystemlookstobeunraveling.
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Butourresearchsuggestsadi?erentnarrative:theworld’scitieshavearrivedatamomentof
reinvention
andrevival.It’struethatthecitycenterisstruggling,whichouranalysisof38CBDs
and13oftheworld’slargestandwealthiestmegacitiescon?rms.Wealsoidenti?edseveral
exceptions,however,withTokyothemostnotable.Alreadyamodelofurbaninnovation,theworld’slargestcity—hometomorethan37millionpeople—has?guredout
howtoadapt
tonewworkingnorms.
Theworld’scitieshavearrivedatamomentofreinventionandrevival.
InTokyo,theCBD—traditionallyacenterforo?ceswithlargenumbersofworkerscommuting
fromfar-?unglocations—isbeingtransformedintowhatwecallaknowledgecampus.ThisnewtypeofCBD
attractsbothbusinessesandtalent,
o?eringopportunityandoptionality,and
satisfyingawidecross-sectionofneeds:companyleaderswhowanttoenhanceproductivity,
employeeswhowantopportunityforsocialinteraction,commercialdevelopersthatwanttokeeptheirbuildings?lledwithtenantsandchargecompetitiverent,andcitiesthatwanttoattract
businessesandboostthetaxbase.Inthefuture,eventheo?ceitselfwillbeamicrocosmoftheCBD.
TheDeclineoftheCentralBusinessDistrict
OurCBDstudyassessedcommercialvacancyratesandrent,andfoundthatinmanyCBDs,
developershavebeenhithard,facingrisingvacancies.Decliningcommercialrentisalso
commonplace,anindicatorofdevelopers’negativeexpectationsregardingthefutureofthe
market.Ofthe13citiesinthisanalysis,3stoodoutfortheircomparativelystrongprogress.TokyoandOsaka,Japan,aswellasSeoul,SouthKorea,achievedpositiveoutcomesonvacancyandrentmetricsandperformedstrong?nanciallyoverall.(SeeExhibit1.)
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Theotherwisenegativepicturere?ectstheimpactofCOVID,whichhasbeenfeltdeeplyinthe
CBDsthathavelongbeenhometowhite-collarjobs—andthusthesourceofcities’economicandculturalvitality.(See“De?ningtheCentralBusinessDistrict.”)
De?ningtheCentralBusinessDistrict
ACBD,forourpurposes,canbede?nedasthegeographiccenterofbusinessactivityinacity,characterizedby:
·SubstantialSize.Itfeaturesaconcentrationofbusinessactivitieswithinaradiusof1kilometer.
·NotableEconomicScale.Thenetaddedvalueorgrossregionalproductofthedistrictmustaccountforatleast2.5%ofthetotaleconomicscaleofthemetropolitan
area.
·HighBuildingDensity.Thedistrictmusthavea?oorarearatio(FAR)of4orhigher,comprisingmedium-to
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high-risebuildings,generallyaveragingfourtoeight
stories(ormore).
A2023studyonpandemicrecoveryinNorthAmericancitiesfoundthatfoottra?cinroughlyhalfofthe62citiessurveyedremainsbelow50%ofprepandemiclevels,andonly4ofthosecitieshavefullyrecoveredtheirbustle.2InAsia,whereurbanrecoveryhasbeenstronger,pedestriantra?cincitieslikeSingapore,Seoul,Bangkok,andKualaLumpurisestimatedtobe10%to20%belowpre-COVIDlevels.
ThenegativeoutlookforCBDscancreateaviciouscycle:reducedactivityinCBDstranslatestolowertaxrevenues,whichleadstodecreasedfundingforareaupkeep,whichfurtherdiminishestheCBD’sattractiveness.Long-termconsequencescouldincludesigni?cantdepopulationofcitycenters.Butthistrajectoryisn’taforegoneconclusion.
Newnormsforwhite-collarworkarechangingtheworld’scities.Onanygivenday,peoplemaybeloggedonathome,acoworkinglocation,aco?eeshop,ortheircompany’sheadquarters.Inmostcities,thisexperienceisunevenatbest;formanyemployees,itinvolvesaseriesofdisjointed
transitionsbetweensystemsandspaces.There’saclearopportunityforcompaniesanddevelopersto?xthisproblem—whichiswhatweobservehappeninginTokyo.
FiveFactorsDrivingTokyo’sUrbanResilienceandInnovation
Tokyoisnotonlythemostpopulousandwealthiestcityintheworldbutalsoavibrantculturalhubtoppingmanylivabilityindicators,suchasthenumberofrestaurants,museums,andotherculturalamenities.Intermsofeconomice?ciency,TokyoCBDsoutperformthoseinmostmegacities
thankstoacombinationoflowvacancyrates,growingo?cesupply,andminimaldeclinesinrentalrates.
Tokyo’ssuccessisnoaccident—itistheresultofinnovativeurbanplanninganddevelopmentpractices.Thecityhasconsistentlysettheblueprintforhyper-connected,high-density
infrastructure,
inspiringurban-planningstrategiesaroundtheglobe.
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Tokyo’ssuccessisnoaccident—itistheresultofinnovativeurbanplanninganddevelopment
practices.
AmongTokyo’smostcelebratedurban-planningachievementsareitscentury-oldcommitmenttotransit-orienteddevelopment(TOD)—whichenabledthecitytomovewellaheadofother
megacitiesinshiingfromcardependencytorail-basedcommuting—anditsstrategicrelaxationof?oorarearatio(FAR)regulationsthatdetermineallowablebuildingsizerelativetolandareainordertoguidehousingdevelopment.Inparticular,TokyoprovidedFARincentivesfordevelopmentsthatincludedresidentialcomponents,especiallyhigh-risehousingincentralareas.Thisapproachsigni?cantlyincreasedhousingsupplywhilecurbingsharprisesinpropertyprices.Forinstance,
despitesubstantialpopulationgrowthinMinatoWard,housingpricesrosebyonlyabout45%overtwodecades—amodestincreasecomparedwithSanFrancisco’s231%surgeundersimilar
demographicpressure.3
Westudied?vemajorcentralTokyoCBDs—MarunouchiandNihonbashi,Roppongi,Shibuya,Shinagawa,andShinjuku—andfoundthat?vekeyfactorsdrivetheirsuccess.
DensityDoneRight.All?vecentralTokyoCBDsarenotonlycompactbutareamongthemostintenselyusedurbanspacesglobally.Whileeverycitycenterisdenserthanitssurroundings,TokyoCBDsstandoutfortheirhyper-density,balancinghighemploymentconcentrationwithdiverse
urbanfunctions.
ThecentralpartofTokyosigni?cantlyexceedsthedensityofCBDsinothermegacities.Tokyohasapopulationdensityofmorethan70,000peoplepersquarekilometer,comparedwithapproximately35,000inManhattanandaround17,000inbothinnerLondonandParis(all?guresrepresent
daytimepopulation4).
The?veTokyoCBDsarealsoinherentlydesignedaswalkableareaswithseamlessaccessto
essential,lifestyle,andpremiumamenities—frompublictransportandhealthcareto?nedining,
luxuryretail,
andculturalinstitutions.Themultifunctiondensitysustainseconomicandsocial
vibrancyduringandbeyondo?cehoursbyenablingplannedandspontaneousinteractions.ThisfeaturesetsTokyoCBDsapartfromothereconomicallysuccessfulsectoralclusterslikeSilicon
ValleyorBoston’sRoute128.
SuperiorTransportationandConnectivity.Asthelargestcityintheworld,Tokyonaturally
dealswiththechallengesofcongestionandtheresultinge?ectoncommutingtime.ButstatisticsshowthatTokyoresidents,onaverage,spendroughlythesameamountoftimecommutingasdo
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thoseincitieslikeParis,London,andNewYork—andsigni?cantlylessthanpeopleincitieswiththelongestcommutingtimes,suchasIstanbulorS?oPaulo.
Tokyolooksevenmoreimpressivewhenweadjustthecommuting-time?gurestoaccountforthecity’ssizeandpopulation.Forexample,aerthisareaadjustment,Tokyohasthesecond-lowest
commutingtimeamongthe13citieswestudied.Weusedthreeadditionalcoe?cients:thesizeoftheareadividedbycommutingtime(thehigher,thebetter),numberofpassengersusingthe
subwayperyearrelativetotheurbanpopulation(thehigher,thebetter),anddensity-to-
commuting-timecoe?cient(thelower,thebetter).Theseprovideamoreaccurateassessmentofthetransportationsystem’se?ciency,takingthecity’ssizeintoaccount.(SeeExhibit2.)
Whatisthesecret?All?veTokyoCBDsarelocatedatmajorpublictransportationhubs,each
withinaroughly1-kilometerradiusfromitscentralstation.Thiscompactscaleensuresthatmosto?cebuildingsareonlyafewminutes’walkfromtheneareststation.Additionally,manystationsareconnecteddirectlytoo?cebuildingsviaextensiveundergroundpedestriannetworks,shieldingcommutersfromwind,rain,andextremeheat.
AlmostallworkersaccessTokyoCBDsviapublictransportation,primarily
rail,
bene?tingfromoneoftheworld’smostextensiveande?cienttransitsystems.Withhigh-frequencytrainservicesandseamlessconnectionsbetweenlines,commutingtoandwithinTokyoCBDsisremarkablysmooth.Thiswell-integratedtransportinfrastructure,alongwithenhancementssuchastransitterminals,expandedpedestriannetworks,andcommercialfacilitieswithinstations,makesTokyoCBDsmoreconvenientandaccessiblecomparedwithotherglobalbusinessdistricts.
AnElevatedMixed-UseApproach.UnlikemostCBDsinothercitiesweanalyzed,TokyoCBDsdisplayaremarkablediversityinlanduse.Forone,theyarenotdominatedbyo?cespaces;
instead,signi?cantportionsareallocatedtocommercialuse,residentialproperties,greenspaces,
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andotherpublicareas.Forinstance,theshareofo?cespacesinTokyo’scoreCBDsrangesfrom26%to38%.ThesoleexceptionisMarunouchiandNihonbashi,whereo?cepropertiesslightly
exceed50%.Incontrast,well-knownCBDsinothercitiesdedicatemorethan60%oftheirareatoo?cespaces.Forexample,Paris’sLaDéfensereachesalmost70%andLondon’sCanaryWharfexceeds80%.(SeeExhibit3.)
Moreover,TokyoCBDshavecarvedoutanotableamountofspaceforresidentialproperties.In
Roppongi,forexample,residentialspacesmakeupnearly25%ofthetotalarea,o?eringastark
contrasttoo?ce-dominateddistrictsinotherglobalcities(whereresidentialspacetypicallydoes
notexceed15%to18%).ThepresenceofhousinginCBDsensuresthatessentialservices,dining,andentertainmentarereadilyavailable,enhancingoveralllivability.Unliketraditionalbusiness
districts,whichbecomedesertedaerworkinghours,TokyoCBDscontinuetoseefoottra?cintheeveningsandonweekends,supportinglocalbusinessesandcontributingtoasafer,moredynamicurbanenvironment.
ASectoralFocus.MostTokyoCBDsfeaturesectoralspecialization,whichmarksashiforthecity:historically,itsCBDsfeaturedamoreuniformmixofcorporateheadquarters,government
o?ces,andconventional?nancialinstitutions.Roppongihasemergedasaninternationaltech-
drivendistrict,whileMarunouchiandNihonbashihavefurthersharpenedtheirspecializationin?nanceandprofessionalservices.Shibuyastandsoutforitsstrongpresenceofdigitalcreative
industries,andShinagawaisincreasinglycharacterizedbygrowingconcentrationsofITaswellaswholesaleandretailtradeactivities.
ToquantifythediversityofsectorrepresentationacrosstheseCBDs,weusedtheHer?ndahl-
HirschmanIndex(HHI),ameasurecommonlyappliedinmarketconcentrationanalysis.Theindexcalculatesthesumofthesquaredmarketsharesofeachindustrywithinagivenarea.AlowerHHIindicatesamorediversesectoralcomposition,whileahigherHHIsigni?esindustryconcentration.Generally,amarket—orinthiscase,aCBD—isconsidereddiverseiftheindexfallsbelow1,500
andconcentratedifitreaches1,500orhigher.
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Usingthismeasure,fourofthe?vemajorCBDsincentralTokyocanbeclassi?edassector-
focused,meaningtheyhaveastrongconcentrationinspeci?cindustries.TheonlyexceptionisShinjuku,withitsmorebalancedmixofindustries.Thetwomostsector-concentratedCBDsareShinagawaandMarunouchiandNihonbashi,whereafewdominantindustriesshapethe
economiclandscape.(SeeExhibit4.)
CBDswithsectorspecializationcreateawin-win:tenantsgainlocalscaleandcommandglobalcredibilityandin?uenceintheirrespectivesectors,whileworkershaveanopportunityfor
serendipitousinteractionswithpeers—leadingtobetterinnovation—aswellasmoreoptionsintheircareerpaths.
UniqueCharacter.Inthecontextofcities,characterincludesbothtangibleelements,suchasarchitecture,design,andtypesofrestaurantsandshops,aswellasintangibleelements,like
atmosphereandevents.
InTokyo,aCBD’scharacteroendependsonthesectorithouses.Roppongi,anIThub,featuresamoderndesignthatseamlesslyblendshigh-techarchitecturewithnature-inspiredelements.Greenspacesbumpupagainstcutting-edgestructures.TheShibuyadistrict,adigitalandcreativecluster,hasadynamicstreetscapewithvibrantarchitectureandaneclecticmixofcolorsandforms.It
blendsbold,avant-gardearchitecture,neon-litstreets,andadiversecollectionofcommercialandculturalspaces.Incontrast,MarunouchiandNihonbashi,hometomajorbanksandprofessionalservice?rms,presentamoreformalappearance—harmonizingmodernskyscraperswithwell-
preservedhistoricarchitecture.
Thesedi?erencesinarchitecturalandspatialdesignarefurtherhighlightedbyadistinctvariationinamenities.WhiletheprestigiousMarunouchiandNihonbashidistrict—populatedwithbankersandstrategicconsultants—alsoboaststhemostluxurioushotelsandwell-establishedhigh-end
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brands,theever-vibrantShibuyathrivesasahubforcutting-edgefashionboutiques,innovativepop-upexperiences,clubs,bars,andlive-musicvenues.
ThereisaclearconnectionbetweenCBDs’characterandthetalenttheyattract.CentralTokyo
developersfocusedonaddressingtheindividualpreferencesofthepeopleworkingthere,rather
thanjusttheneedsofcorporations.Itisanongoingprocess;inourinterviewswithkeydevelopers,theytellustheycontinually?ne-tuneCBDstomeetevolvingrequirements.Thevibrant,dynamic,andchaoticShibuyatargetsthecreativeclass,whilethemorebourgeoisMarunouchiand
Nihonbashicatertoprofessionalsin
?nanceandstrategyconsulting.
ThereisaclearconnectionbetweenCBDs’characterandthetalenttheyattract.
Corporationshavecometoappreciatethisapproach.GooglefacedatoughdecisionwhenchoosingthelocationforitsnewJapaneseheadquarters,debatingbetweenRoppongiandShibuya.
Ultimately,thecompanysettledonShibuya,drawnbythedistrict’svibrantcreativeatmosphere,whichalignedwiththevaluesandmindsetofitsemployees.
TheRiseofthe“KnowledgeCampus”
Whenconsideredtogether,the?vefactorsabovestarttoresembleauniversitycampus,which
providesintegratedspacesforbothworkandlifewithintightlyknitcommunitiesofprofessionals.Clusteredtogetheroncampuses,professorsandstudentscanseamlesslycontinuetheir
intellectualexchangebeyondthecon?nesoflaboratoriesandlecturehalls,e?ectivelyblurringthedistinctionbetweenworkandleisuretime.
Acaseinpoint:whenFrancisCrickandJamesWatsonannouncedtheirgroundbreakingdiscoveryofthedouble-helixstructureofDNAin1953,theydidn’tdoitfromthelabwheretheyworkedat
CambridgeUniversity.TheywentnearbytoTheEaglepub,knowingitwasapopulargatheringspotforfellowscientistsandresearchers.
Similarly,theburgeoningCBDmodelinTokyocanbecharacterizedasaknowledgecampus.By
bringingtogetheremployeesfromthesamesectorsandfosteringinteractionsbeyondo?cewalls,thesecampusesenhancetheexchangeofideas—acriticaldriverofproductivityintheknowledgeeconomy.
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Theideathatsectorspecializationincreasesproductivityisnotnew—itwas?rstintroducedby
AlfredMarshallinthelate19thcenturyandlaterexpandedbyMichaelPorterintheearly1990s.Recentresearchonproductivityemphasizesthathighere?ciencyisnotmerelyaresultof
corporateproximitybutrathertheenhancedinteractionsamongtalentedindividuals,whichencourageknowledgespillovers.
Numerousdata-drivenstudiessupportthisinsight.Forexample,a2024studyexaminedtheroleofcollaborationinscienti?cproductivitybyanalyzingthenetworksofNobellaureates.AccordingtoaJune2024articleinScientometrics,theresearchfoundthatcollaborativee?ortssigni?cantly
contributetoscienti?c
innovation
andproductivity,underscoringtheimportanceofinteractionsamongskilledprofessionalsingeneratingknowledgespillovers.
Tofostertheseinteractions,aknowledgecampusshouldbluro?ceboundaries,mixingtalent
regardlessofcompanya?liations.Itisanecosystemwherepeoplecanchoosetheiridealwork
environment,eitherinsideoroutsidetheo?ce.Ofcourse,evenTokyoCBDsarenotquitethereyet.Butwehaveobservedmeaningfule?ortsbymajordeveloperstoexpandpublicspaceswithintheCBDandbroadenthevarietyofactivitiesavailabletoemployeesbeyondtheiro?cewalls.
CBDsinothercitiesarealsomakingstridesinthisarea:LaDéfenseandCanaryWharfrecently
announcedtransformationprogramsaimedatsubstantiallyincreasingtheshareofresidential
properties.Similarly,LowerManhattanhasexperiencedatleastadoublingofitsCBDresidentialpopulation.
Transformationprograms
alsoaimtoenhancepublicspacesbycreatingvibrantareasthatencourageinteractionsandserveasthebackboneoftheknowledgecampus.Forexample,theCanaryWharfmasterplanincorporatesagenerousopen-spaceandpublic-realmstrategyasa
centralelement.
WhatCEOsCanDoToday
Withthetectonicshiinhowwework,selectingano?celocationhasbecomemorestrategicthanever.Therightchoicecanattractandhelpretaintoptalentwhileenhancingproductivity.Buta
poorlocationmayleadtothelossofvaluableemployees,reducedperformanceamongthosewhostayowingtodissatisfactionandlowermotivation,missedopportunitiesforgreaterproductivity,andine?ectiveuseofspace.
Infact,wearealreadyseeingwarningsignsfromemployeesreturningtotheo?ce,indicatingthatspacesandprocesseshaveremainedunchanged—workersstillarenotexperiencingincreased
interaction,collaboration,ormentoring.CEOsshouldactnowtoavoidblowback.
SelectorcodesigntherightCBD.StartbyidentifyingtheCBDsthatalignwiththeknowledgecampusconceptandcontributetohigherproductivityandengagementbyenhancingaccessibility,promotingknowledgespillovers,andfosteringindustrycollaboration.Choosetheonethatbest?tsyoursectorbothgloballyandlocally.
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CEOs’in?uenceinshapingtheecosystemisgrowing.Thenextstepmayinvolvepartneringwithdevelopers,tenantassociations,anddistrictgovernmentstointegrateelementsoftheknowledgecampusmodel—mixed-usespaces,pedestrian-friendlyenvironments,andimproved
transportation
access—intobroaderstrategicinitiatives.
AlignyourcompanywiththenewCBDecosystem.Thiscanincludeseveralpoliciesandareasoffocus:
·Enhance?exibleworkarrangements.Exploreavarietyof?exibleworkmodelsthat
balanceremoteworkwithin-personcollaboration.De?neo?ce-basedtasksthatmaximize
face-to-facevalueratherthansimplyfocusingontimespentonsite.Accordingtoa2023BCGsurveyon
hybridworkstrategies
,employeesclearlydistinguishbetweentasksthataremoree?cientlyexecutedfromhomeandthosethatyieldhigherproductivityintheo?ce.Butmanycompanies’policieshaveyettore?ectthisnuancedunderstanding.
·Expandworklocationoptions.Reevaluateworkspaceopportunitiestakingintoaccount
modernpractices,suchasworkingfromaco?eeshop.AspreviousresearchfromBond
UniversityandtheUniversityofMünstersuggests,somealternativeworkspacescan
contributetohigherproductivity.Separately,the“co?eeshope?ect”—supportedbynumeroussurveys—demonstratesthatambientbackgroundnoiseinpublicspacescanenhance
productivityandsparkcreativity.
·Fosterstrongerprofessionalcommunities.Encourageemployeestoconnectandpartnerwithpeersintheirindustry,reinforcingtheprinciplethatcollaborationdrivesproductivity.
Companiescansupportthisbyprovidinglearninganddevelopmentstipends,organizingnetworkingevents,promotingcross-companyprojects,andinvestingincoworking
memberships.
·Ensurethatworkplacepoliciesalignwithbusinessdistrictrealities.Health,
insurance,
privacy,andreimbursementpoliciesshouldre?ectthenewwaysemployeeswork—whetherintheo?ce,sharedspaces,orremotelocations.Ratherthanapplyingaone-size-?ts-allmodel,companiesshouldcreateadaptableframeworksthataccommodatedi?erentworkforceneeds.
.Sellthevalue.ClearlycommunicatehowtheCBDecosystemenhancesemployees’
professionalgrowth,productivity,andwork-lifebalance,ratherthansimplymandatingo?ceattendance.Asnumerousstudiesonorganizationalvisionandemployeeengagementhaveshown,companiesthate?ectivelyde?neandsharethestrategicroleoftheiro?ce
environmentwiththeirsta?tendtofosterhighervoluntaryattendanceandemployeebuy-in.
Themostforward-thinkingcompanieswillnotjustadapttoshiingworkpatternsbutactivelyshapethecitieswheretheyoperate.Businessdistrictsareevolving,andtheorganizationsthat
?2025BostonConsultingGroup12
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