CONGRESSIONALLYMANDATED

RESEARCHPLAN

AND

AN

INITIALRESEARCH

GOVERNANCEFRAMEWORK

RELATEDTO

SOLAR

RADIATIONMODIFICATIONJUNE

2023Tableof

ContentsAbout

This

Report...........................................................................................................................

3SuggestedCitation.......................................................................................................................

4About

theOfficeofScience

andTechnologyPolicy..................................................................

4ExecutiveSummary........................................................................................................................

5PhysicalAspectsofSolarRadiationModification

.....................................................................

5DevelopmentofScenariosforSolarRadiationModification.....................................................

6Socioeconomicand

EcologicalOutcomes

..................................................................................

6InternationalCooperationonSolarRadiationModificationResearch

.......................................

7ResearchCoordination

................................................................................................................

7I.InitialResearchGovernance

Framework

....................................................................................

8TheState

ofKnowledgeandCurrent

ExecutiveBranchAction

................................................

8GoverningResearch

Responsibly

...............................................................................................

9InternationalCooperation............................................................................................................

9II.ResearchPlan

...........................................................................................................................

10Introduction

...............................................................................................................................

10SectionA.PhysicalAspectsofSolar

RadiationModification..................................................

12SectionB.Development

ofScenarios

forSolarRadiationModification

.................................

24SectionC.Socioeconomicand

EcologicalOutcomes

..............................................................

27SectionD.InternationalCooperationonSolarRadiationModificationResearch

...................

39SectionE.CoordinationofFederally

FundedResearchintoSolarRadiationModification

....

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AboutThis

ReportThis

ResearchPlanwaspreparedinresponse

toarequirementinthe

joint

explanatorystatementaccompanyingDivisionBof

theConsolidatedAppropriationsAct,2022,directingthe

OfficeofScience

andTechnologyPolicy(OSTP),withsupport

fromtheNational

OceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),toprovidearesearchplanfor“solarandotherrapidclimate

interventions.”TheCongressionaldirectivealsorequeststhatOSTPdevelopa

“researchgovernance

frameworktoprovideguidanceon

transparency,

engagement,

andriskmanagementforpubliclyfundedworkinsolargeoengineeringresearch.”AninitialResearch

GovernanceFrameworkis

includedinpartIofthisreport.Thisinitialframeworkprovidesimportantcontextforthe

ResearchPlan.Whilekeyconceptsintheframework,suchas

transparencyand

internationalcooperation,

arereflectedin

theResearchPlan,the

ResearchPlanitselfdoesnotfocusonissuesofresearchgovernance.This

documentfocusesonatmospheric-based

approachestosolarradiationmodification(SRM),specificallystratospheric

aerosolinjection(SAI)and

marine

cloudbrightening(MCB),followingtherecentandextensive2021National

Academiesof

Sciences,Engineering,andMedicine(NASEM)report,

ReflectingSunlight:Recommendationsfor

SolarGeoengineering

ResearchandResearchGovernance.1

Alsofollowingtheapproachofthe2021NASEMreport,thisResearchPlan

mentionscirrus

cloudthinning(CCT),eventhoughthisworksbyincreasingoutgoingthermalradiationandhence

isnotstrictlyspeakingSRM.There

is

relativelylittleworktodateonCCT,andthisPlan’streatmentofitreflectsthatpaucityofknowledge.This

ResearchPlandoes

notconsiderspace-based

approachestoSRM(commonly,“mirrorsinspace”),norlocal-scale

measurestoincreasesurface

reflectance(e.g.,“whiteroofs”).Thefocusonatmosphericapproachesalsofollowsfromtheirgreaternear-term

feasibilityrelativetospace-basedapproaches,and

thegreatergovernance

challengesofatmosphericapproaches—whichinherentlyhavesignificant

trans-boundary

impacts—relativetobuilding-scalealbedomodification.Considerationofbothsocietal

andscientificdimensionsas

partofaresearch

agenda

is

criticaltoprovidingdecision-makerswiththefullestpossible

scopeofunderstanding.Furthermore,dueconsiderationofthesefactorsmayreduce

theriskthat

researchis

perceivedas

asteptowardsinevitabledeployment

ofSRM.Societaldimensions

includesocioeconomicbenefitsandrisksofSRMrelative

tothoseofclimate

changeitself.Examplesofsocietaldimensionsincludeenvironmental

justice,effectsongeopoliticalstability,implicationsforotheraspectsofclimatepolicy(e.g.,

mitigationandadaptation),toleranceof

riskswhichmaynotbewell

characterized,issuesofpublicperception

andacceptance,and

more.Scientificdimensionsincludenew

andcontinuedground-based,airborne,

andspace-basedobservations;improvingglobal

modelingofSRMapproaches

andscenarios;theneedforlaboratoryresearch

andoutdoor

experiments;

theabilitytodetect

global

orregionalSRMdeployments;anddevelopmentofscenarios

forSRM.1

NationalAcademies

ofSciences,Engineering,andMedicine.(2021a).

ReflectingSunlight:Recommendations

forSolar

GeoengineeringResearchandResearchGovernance.Washington,DC:TheNationalAcademies

Press./10.17226/257623C

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This

ResearchPlanfocusesonimprovingunderstandingofthepotentialimpactsofSRM,ratherthanontechnologiesneededfordeployment.Much

ofthis

researchwould

contributetoourabilitytounderstandbasic

climateprocessesandeffectsofhumangreenhouse

gas

emissions,aswellas

outcomesofSRM.This

Plandrawsfromthe

publishedliteratureonSRM,researchcurrentlyunderway,andotherreportsidentifyingprioritiesforSRMresearch.

This

Planwillrequireupdatingas

knowledgegrowsinthisdynamicarea.While

this

ResearchPlanfocusesprimarilyon

what

researchwouldbeperformed,it

alsobrieflydiscussesaspects

of

howthatresearchwouldbeperformed,specificallythevalue

of

coordinationofFederalresearchandinternational

cooperation

in

SRMresearch.Inaddition

toFederalinputfrom

tenagencies,theResearchPlandrawsfromtheselectengagementwithstakeholdergroupsand

thepublic,

including

inputs

collectedthrough

aRequestforComment.2Importantly,the

issuanceofthisreportdoes

notsignal

anyExecutiveBranchpolicydecision(s)regardingSRM.Thereport

is

onlyaresponseto

Congressionaldirective.Anyfuture

decisionsaroundFederalSRMactivities,includingSRMresearch,mustbeconsideredin

thebroadercontextofscientificandsocietal

factors,Administrationpriorities,andavailableresources.SuggestedCitationOSTP.(2023).CongressionallyMandatedResearch

PlanandanInitial

Research

GovernanceFrameworkRelatedtoSolarRadiationModification.

OfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy,Washington,DC,USA.AbouttheOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicyTheOfficeofScience

andTechnologyPolicy(OSTP)wasestablishedbytheNational

ScienceandTechnologyPolicy,Organization,andPriorities

Actof1976toprovide

thePresident

andothers

withinthe

ExecutiveOfficeofthe

Presidentwithadviceonthe

scientific,

engineering,andtechnologicalaspects

ofthe

economy,nationalsecurity,homelandsecurity,health,foreignrelations,theenvironment,andthe

technologicalrecoveryanduse

ofresources,amongothertopics.OSTPleads

interagencyscienceandtechnologypolicycoordinationefforts,

assiststheOfficeofManagementandBudget

with

anannual

reviewandanalysisoffederalresearch

anddevelopmentinbudgets,andservesas

asourceofscientificand

technologicalanalysisandjudgmentfor

thePresident

withrespecttomajorpolicies,plans,andprogramsofthefederalgovernment.More

informationis

availableat

/ostp.2

WhiteHouseOfficeofScienceand

TechnologyPolicy.(3March2023).

Requestfor

InputtoaFive-Year

PlanforResearchonClimateIntervention./ostp/legal/4C

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NExecutive

SummaryAprogramofresearch

intothe

scientificandsocietalimplications

ofsolarradiationmodification(SRM)would

enablebetter-informeddecisionsaboutthe

potentialrisksandbenefitsofSRM

asacomponentofclimatepolicy,

alongsidethe

foundational

elements

ofgreenhousegasemissionsmitigation

andadaptation.Sucharesearch

programwould

alsohelp

topreparethe

UnitedStates

forpossible

deploymentofSRM

byother

publicorprivateactors.Aresearchprogramcharacterized

bytransparencyandinternationalcooperation

would

contributetoabroaderbasisoftrustaroundthisissue.The

potential

risksandbenefitsto

human

health

andwell-being

associated

withscenariosinvolving

the

use

of

SRM

need

to

be

considered

relative

to

the

risksandbenefits

associatedwith

plausible

trajectories

of

ongoing

climate

change

not

involving

SRM.

This

“risk

vs.

risk”framing,

along

with

cultural,

moral,

and

ethical

considerations,

would

contributeto

the

necessarycontext

in

which

policymakers

can

consider

the

potential

suitability

of

SRM

as

a

component

ofclimate

policy.Bytheirfundamentalnature,the

currentsuite

of

potentialSRMmethods

wouldnotsimplynegate(explicitlyoffset)

allcurrent

orfuture

impacts

ofclimate

changeinducedby

increasedatmosphericgreenhousegas

concentrations.

Theywouldintroduceanadditionalchange

(analterationofsolarenergyat

scalesdeterminedby

the

particularSRMmethod)

tothe

existing,complex

climatesystem,withramificationswhichare

notnowwellunderstood.Aresearchprogramaimed

at

improvingquantificationoftheeffects

ofpotentialSRMmethods

implementationonthe

Earthsystemwould

involveobservations,experimentation,andmodeling.Researchwouldbe

intended

to

addressknowledgegapsand

buildunderstandingto

aiddecision-makingandpolicymaking.Becausesuchdecisionswouldinvolve

importantsocietal

dimensions,anyresearch

programshould

encompassthe

societalaswellasthe

scientificdimensionsofSRM,includingcross-disciplinaryresearch.Effortsin

this

area

also

wouldhelp

tofosteradvances

inunderstandingof

thehuman

consequencesofclimate

change,independent

ofSRM.AnyprogramofresearchintoSRMwouldbecharacterizedby

transparency,

oversight,safety,publicconsultation,internationalcooperation,andperiodicreview,as

outlinedinaresearchgovernanceframework.PhysicalAspectsofSolarRadiationModificationObservationsfrominstrumentsonground-based,

airborne,andspaceborneinstrumentssupportunderstandingofthe

physicalprocessesandoutcomesassociatedwith

SRM.

Theseincludeobservationsrelated

toatmospheric

composition(gasesandaerosols),aerosol–cloudinteractions,chemistry,dynamics,radiation,short-term

andlong-termtrends,andseasonalvariability.Observationsfromspaceborneplatforms(satellites)haveaunique

role

inprovidingcontinuousglobalobservationsofthebackgroundandperturbed

atmosphere.

Maintainingkeysatellite5C

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measurementsis

importantforSRM

research

as

wellas

forourbroaderunderstandingofEarthsystemprocesses.Keyresearchobjectives

for

improvingglobalmodelingofSRM

scenarioswould

include:increase

thenumberanddiversityofmodelsthat

can

conductrealisticSRMsimulations;includearangeofmodel

typesfromprocess-resolvingmodelstoglobal

climatemodels;assesstheclimateresponse

toSRMacrossmultipleglobal

climatemodels,scenarios,andstrategies;performsensitivitystudiestoassessthesurfacecoolingeffectivenessofvarious

SRMstrategies;use

globalmodelstostudyhowSRMwouldaffect

aspectsofclimatethat

drivesocietal

impacts;andassesstherisksassociatedwithsuddenterminationofSRM.Outdoorexperiments

would

be

valuable

in

combinationwith

modelandlaboratorystudiesforunderstandingthe

processesinvolved

with

potentialSRM

deployment.

Outdoorexperiments

wouldbenefitfromdevelopmentand

testingofaerosolinjectiontechnologies,observingsystems,andanalysistools.The

abilitytodetectanyglobalor

regionalSRM

deploymentswould

be

ofvaluefordecision-making.Verifyingadeployment—whether

carriedout

covertlyoropenly—overtheshort-andlong-termwouldoccurby

measuringand

monitoring

thecharacteristicsofthedeployment,while

assessingtheintendedandunintendedphysical,

environmental,andsocietaloutcomes.Aninternationalscientificassessmentofthe

stateofunderstandingof

SRM

methodswouldbe

valuablein

establishingacommonunderstandingandframeofreferencefor

whatisknownandnotknown

regardingthistopic.

Thescope

ofanassessment,if

intendedtobeofvaluetodecision-makers,shouldincludeinternational

andprivatelyfundedresearch,as

well

asanyoutdoorexperimentsconducted

todate.DevelopmentofScenariosforSolarRadiationModificationDevelopmentofastandardsetofSRM

scenarios

would

be

animportantintegratingaspectofacomprehensiveresearchprogram.

Asetofscenariosshouldincludethose

carefullydesignedtoproduce

specificclimateoutcomes(e.g.,

“peak-shaving”

orcooling

theArctic

and/orotherregions),as

well

as

thosethat

might

beimplementedwithout

havingbeencarefullydesigned.SRMscenariodevelopment

is

an

iterative

processwherescenarios

areperiodicallyrevisedbasedonupdatedpolicychoices,new

observations,andimprovedprocess-basedunderstanding.SinceSRMis

intended

toreduce

risksassociatedwith

climate

change,aresearchprogramwould

mostusefullyassessrisksand

benefitsassociated

withSRM

scenariosin

comparisontorisksassociatedwith

plausibleclimatechangescenariosnotinvolvingSRM.SocioeconomicandEcologicalOutcomesDecisionsconcerningwhetherandhow

todeploySRM

should

be

basedupon

anunderstandingoftherisksandbenefitstohuman

healthandwell-beingofitsimplementationrelativetothose

anticipatedunder

the

currentclimatechangetrajectory.Ofparticularimportance

is

considerationofpotential

jeopardyto

diverse

communitiesandintergenerationalequity.6C

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Cultural,moral,andethicalconsiderationsareoftenoverlooked

in

model-basedevaluationsandmaybe

equally,ifnotmore,importanttodifferentcommunities.

Inaddition

tophysicalscientistsandengineers,philosophersandsocialscientistsareneededtohelpanswerquestionsrelatedto

thehumandimensionsof

climate

changeand

efforts

tomanage

thatchangethroughSRM.Thereis

apotentialforadverse

outcomestoecosystemsandtheservicestheyprovide

withtheimplementationofSRM,butthe

nature

andintensity

oftheseoutcomes—incomparisonto

thoseinscenarios

without

SRM—remainunclear,particularlyoverthe

longtimeperiodsanticipatedinmanyscenarios.

Furtherassessmentofoutcomestoecosystemsin

SRM

scenariosrelativetothose

in

scenarioswithoutSRM

is

needed.Climatechange

raisesgeopoliticalrisks.SRMdeploymentcouldalsocarrysignificantgeopoliticalrisks.Research

intothe

geopoliticalramificationsofSRM

would

be

aimed

atreducingthe

likelihoodand/orseverityofthese

risks.InternationalCooperationonSolarRadiationModificationResearchIfFederalscienceagenciesweretosupporta

large-scaleprogram

ofSRMresearch,

theycouldconsiderengagingin

appropriateinternational

cooperation.Internationalcooperationcouldpromoteknowledge

gains,a

common

internationalunderstandingofresearchneeds

andresults,resourcesavings,socializingbestpractices(suchas

actingwithfull

transparency),

andreducingtheprospectof

irresponsibleexperimentationand/or

deployment.Cooperationcouldinvolveone

ormore

areas

ofSRM-relatedresearchandcouldtakevariousforms,rangingfrommodest

(e.g.,anexchange

ofexperts)to

extensive(e.g.,aninternationalconsortium).Potentialcooperationpartnerscouldbe

engaged

basedonany

number

ofcriteriaorperceivedbenefits,includingcountrieswithexpertise,availablefunding,orcapacity

inaparticulararea,countrieswithlimitedopportunitiesorcapacityin

acertainarea,and

countrieswithaccesstoparticularecosystems(e.g.,the

ocean

ortheArctic).ResearchCoordinationAnylarge-scale,multi-agencyFederalresearchprogramintoSRM

shouldbe

coordinatedbythe

U.S.GlobalChange

Research

Program.

Thiscoordinationrole

is

currentlymandatedbytheGlobalChange

ResearchActof1990andwouldapplyto

all

FederallyfundedresearchintoSRM,whetherperformeddomesticallyorinternationally,andwhetherinvolvingnaturalorsocialscience.OngoingresearchintoSRM

involvingtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),theNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA),andtheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)has

been

coordinated

bytheparticipating

agencies.7C

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I.

InitialResearch

GovernanceFrameworkAsoutlinedinthe

joint

explanatorystatementaccompanyingDivisionBofthe

ConsolidatedAppropriationsActfor

FiscalYear

2022,Congress

requestedthat

an

interagencyworkinggroup“shouldestablisharesearchgovernance

frameworkto

provideguidance

ontransparency,engagement,andriskmanagementforpubliclyfundedworkinsolargeoengineeringresearch.”This

documentdescribesaninitialapproach

theExecutiveBranchcouldtake

toestablishthatframework:

Furtherdevelopmentand

evolutionofrelatedpoliciesmaybe

pursued,asappropriate.TheBiden-HarrisAdministrationstrongly

affirms

that

climatechange

is

oneofthe

greatestchallenges

facingtheworld,particularly

thosecountriesandcommunitiesmostvulnerable

toitsadverseeffects.Immediate,sustained,

andeffectivereductionsofglobal

greenhouse

gasemissionsarerequiredtoslowthe

paceof

climatechange

andreduce

theriskofcrossingcriticalandpotentiallycatastrophic

thresholdsinthe

global

climatesystem.Thesereductionsmust

occurwhilerobust

adaptationis

accelerated

andwhile

capabilitiesineffectiveandresponsible

carbondioxideremoval,such

as

direct

aircapture

andpermanentsequestration,

arepursuedvigorously.TheAdministration

alsorecognizesthat

there

is

growinginterest

andinvestment

inresearchonactions

that,togetherwithmitigationmeasures,couldlimittemperatureincreaseand

therebyhelpaddresstherisksofclimatechange,includingpotentialtippingpointsandovershootscenarios.For

example,academia,philanthropy,

and

theprivatesectorhaveexaminedpreliminaryapplicationsofclimateinterventiontechniques,suchas

stratosphericaerosolinjectionand

marinecloudbrightening(techniquescategorizedas

“solarradiationmodification,”hereafterSRM),intended

torapidly

limittemperature

increase.Alongsidethepotentialbenefitsofsuchactions,seriousconcernshavebeenraised

about

thepotentialoutcomesof

SRM.Theseunknowns,andtheever-evolvingunderstandingofcomplexEarthsystems,

provide

acompellingcaseforresearch

tobetterunderstandboththe

potentialbenefitsandrisks.TheStateofKnowledgeandCurrentExecutiveBranchActionTherisksofinactiontoreduce

greenhouse

gas

emissionsquicklyandsignificantly

andlimitwarmingto1.5°Cabove

preindustrial

levelsareincreasinglyclear.

This

urgencywarrantsadditionalresearchtoevaluatethe

efficacy,

trade-offs,orotherrelevantconsiderationsofSRM.Insomecases,research

mayneedtobeundertaken

withguardrailsthat

acknowledgerelevantconcerns,balancethe

risksandneed

toaddressunknowns,andseektoavoidorminimizeundesirableoutcomesofbothsuchresearch

andclimateimpacts.Thebelowfive-yearResearchPlan—mandatedbyCongress—highlightssomeofthe

keyknowledgegapsandpriority

topicsforpotentialresearch.DiscussionsonSRMresearch,including

thesubmissionofthe

five-yearResearchPlan

toCongress,shouldnotbeinterpreted

as

endorsementof

implementationofSRM.TheU.S.Governmentis

engagedin

asubsetofSRM

researchactivitiesincluding

modeling,measurementsandmonitoring,

andlaboratoryresearch—allofwhichoccurwithinexistingauthorizations

for

Federalscienceagencies.Several

agencieshavealsoforyearsbeenconductingbackgroundresearchonfundamentalclimateprocessesthat

areimportant

tounderstandingclimate

change,generally,andthat

researchalsohas

relevancetoresearch8C

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concerningSRM(e.g.,understandingthe

impactofvolcanic

forcing

andnaturalanalogsystems,cloud–aerosol

interactions,etc.).Existingresearchis

notapreparatorymeasurefordeployment,andtheU.S.Government

is

notcurrentlyengagedin

outdoortestingordeployment.GoverningResearchResponsiblyInaddition

towhatresearchtoconduct,the

Biden-HarrisAdministrationseeksto

ensurethathowresearchis

conductedmeetsthehighstandardsit

has

setinadvancing

its

unprecedented

andambitiousclimateandcleanenergystrategies.Aninteragencygrouphas

begun

considering

theimportanceofensuring

thesehighstandardsas

theyrelate

toSRMactivitiesgoingforward.Thefollowingkeypointsdescribe

aninitialapproach

the

ExecutiveBranchwouldtake

tothatframework.1.

TheU.S.Governmentwill

model

responsiblebehaviorthroughwellgovernedandtransparentresearchprograms,includingreporting,data

sharing,

and,as

appropriate,regulationsorrulemaking.2.

TheU.S.Governmentwill

encourageother

countriesandnon-Federal

entities

toshareresearchplansandresults,inline

withprinciplesof

open

scienceandtransparency.3.

Federalscienceagencies3

commit—and

encouragenon-Federal

entitiestocommit—topromotingopenscientificresearchalignedwithF.A.I.R.E.R.(Findable,Accessible,Interoperable,Reprod