中國的出口退稅政策liuqingdm@“對外貿(mào)易是增加我們財富和現(xiàn)金的通常手段……，在價值上，每年賣給外國人的貨物，必須比我們消費(fèi)他們的多?！薄旭R斯·孟“foreigntradeistheengineforgrowth.”——D.H.RobertsonOutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureMotivationMotivationWhyChina’sexportincreasessorapidly?TheanswerTradetheorycomparativeadvantageIncreasingreturntoscaleTradepolicyExportpromotionsubsidyDefinition對出口貨物退還其在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)和流通環(huán)節(jié)實(shí)際繳納的產(chǎn)品稅、增值稅、營業(yè)稅和特別消費(fèi)稅。1985年3月，國務(wù)院正式頒發(fā)了《關(guān)于批轉(zhuǎn)財政部〈關(guān)于對進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)品征、退產(chǎn)品稅或增值稅的規(guī)定〉的通知》，規(guī)定從1985年4月1日起實(shí)行對出口產(chǎn)品退稅政策。Definition條件必須是增值稅、消費(fèi)稅征收范圍內(nèi)的貨物必須是報關(guān)離境出口的貨物必須是在財務(wù)上作出口銷售處理的貨物必須是已收匯并經(jīng)核銷的貨物DefinitionsanctionedbytheWTO不違背WTO規(guī)則TheWTOAgreementonSubsidiesandCountervailingMeasures(SCM,Article1.1a)allowsmemberstoproviderebatesonexportdutiesaslongastherebatedoesnotexceedthefullextentofthedutyimposed.Thus,incontrasttoothertradepoliciessuchasexportsubsidies,VATrebatesaresanctionedbytheWTO.DefinitionsanctionedbytheWTO不違背WTO規(guī)則tradetheoryimpliesthatadestination-basedVATsystemwithacompleteexporttaxrebatehasneutraleffectsonexportsandimports(FeldsteinandKrugman,1990)apositiverelationshipbetweentheVATrebaterateandexportvolume(FeldsteinandKrugman,1990)OutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureAbriefhistoryExporttaxrebateswerefirstusedinChinain1985Mainlyduetothemodestexportvolume,thetotalamountofexporttaxrebatesstartedsmall,atlessthan1.8billionRMBin1985,amountingtoabout0.88%oftotaltaxrevenue.AbriefhistoryBy2007,thetotalamountofVATrebatespaidtoChineseexportersrosetoover560billionRMB;andtheratiobetweenexporttaxrebatesandtotaltaxrevenueincreasedto12.35%2013年，出口退稅總額占全國公共財政收入的8.1%，占全國公共財政支出的7.5%。1985-2008年出口退稅額變動趨勢Exporttaxrebates/totaltaxrevenue:1985–2007AbriefhistoryTheVATratewassetat17%formostcommoditiesproducedinChinathroughoutthepost-1994periodFollowingtheprincipleoffullrefundofVATleviedonexportsindestination-basedVAT,theexporttaxrebaterateswereinitiallysettoequaltheVATrate,resultinginanaverageactualrebaterateof16.63%in1994AbriefhistorySubsequently,therapidgrowthinexports,coupledwithaless-than-perfectauditingsystemintheearlystageoftheexporttaxrebateprogram,quicklyresultedinalargeVATrebatebacklogin1995,justoneyearintothenewrebateprogram.By1996,thefiscalburdenbecamesoheavythatthegovernmentwasforcedtoreducetherebateratesfrom17%toasetofmuchlowerrates(3%,6%,and9%fordifferentgroupsofcommodities)AbriefhistorySincethen,theexporttaxrebaterateshavebeenadjustedmultipletimes,sometimesinresponsetoexportconditionsandsometimesduetofiscalconstraintsTocountertheAsianfinancialcrisisof1997andthesubsequentdifficultiesfacedbyChineseexporters,thelowexporttaxrebateratesof1996weredroppedandreplacedin1998byasetofhigherrebateratesof5%,13%,15%,and17%dependingonthecategoryofgoodsAbriefhistoryHereagainthehighgrowthofexportsbetween2000and2003ledtoalargebacklogofrebatepaymentsandseverefiscalpressureonthecentralgovernment.Inresponse,therebaterateswereloweredagainin2004to5%,8%,11%,13%,and17%dependingontheproductcategory.Abriefhistory2007年，“二高一資”產(chǎn)品出口退稅率降低或取消。2008年，為了緩解經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)影響，提高出口退稅率。Abriefhistory2004年我國出臺新的出口退稅政策，它是對原出口退稅機(jī)制的重大改革，具體改革內(nèi)容包括：對出口退稅率的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行調(diào)整。針對不同的產(chǎn)品類別采取不同的出口退稅率，對國家鼓勵出口的高新技術(shù)類產(chǎn)品適當(dāng)提高退稅率，而對國家限制出口的“兩高一資”產(chǎn)品適當(dāng)下調(diào)甚至取消出口退稅率；加大中央財政對出口退稅支持力度；建立中央和地方共同負(fù)擔(dān)出口退稅新機(jī)制，以2003年出口退稅實(shí)退指標(biāo)為基數(shù)，對超基數(shù)部分的應(yīng)退稅額，由中央與地方按三比一的比例分別負(fù)擔(dān)；累計欠退稅由中央財政負(fù)擔(dān)。OutlineDefinitionAbriefhistoryEconomiceffectsFutureEconomiceffectsHowdoesvalue-addedtaxaffecttrade?Howdoesexporttaxrebateaffecttrade?SomeothereffectsFirst-orderSecond-orderHigh-orderHowdoesvalue-addedtaxaffecttradetheidealizedVATsystemhasnoeffectonacountry'sexportsorimports(oftenreferredtoastheneutralityorirrelevancyresult)FeldsteinandKrugman(1990)threeconditionsThecountryisaprice-takerontheworldgoodsmarketAuniformVATrateappliestobothtradablegoodsandnon-tradablegoodsItisadestination-basedVATwithVATimposedonimportsandfullVATrebatesgiventoexportsExporttaxrebateratesandexportgrowthIdentifythecausaldirectionOtherfactorsthatmayalsoinfluenceexportsmightbepresentatthesametimeastheexporttaxrebaterateadjustment,includingthemacroeconomicconditionsofforeignmarketsandothertradepoliciesadoptedbytheChinesegovernmenttofacilitateexports.improvedcustomsandtransportationservicesIdentifythecausaldirectionEndogeneity內(nèi)生性Asdifferentexporttaxrebateratesareassignedtodifferentcommoditiesbytradeofficialswhohaveanincentivetoshowcasetheeffectivenessoftheirpolicies,theymaysethigherrebateratesforproductswithagreaterpotentialforexportgrowthChandraandLong(2013)studytheroleofVATrebatesinaffectingChineseexportsusingfirm-levelpaneldatafor2000–2006Toaddresspotentialendogeneity,theyrelyonaquasi-naturalpolicyexperimentin2004foreachpercentagepointincreaseintheVATrebaterate,theamountofexportsincreasedby13%,whichtranslatesintoanadditional$4.70ofexportsforeach$1ofexporttaxrebatespaid.Twocaveatsastheresultsarebasedonarelativelyshortpanel,thefindingsmaynotbeusedtoextrapolateeffectsofVATrebateratesonexportsinthelongertermtheseresultsdonotspeaktothegeneraleffectivenessorefficiencyoftradepoliciesinChinaonecannotruleoutthepossibilitythatChineseexportgrowthcouldhavebeenhigherifChinahadadoptedadifferenttaxsystemaVATsystemwithautomaticcompleteborderadjustmentsSomeothereffectsWelfareeffectPositiveeffectChenetal.(2006)；陳林和朱衛(wèi)平（2008）Negativeorambiguous馬捷（2002）；Feenstra(2004)Someothereffects蘭宜生和劉晴（2011）平均出口退稅率與出口額劉晴和嚴(yán)雷（2013）BasedonMelitz（2003）Export-stabilizedeffect，Structure-optimizedeffect,firm-evolvedeffectandsurplus-alleviatedeffect出口穩(wěn)定效應(yīng)、結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化效應(yīng)、企業(yè)進(jìn)化效應(yīng)和順差緩解效應(yīng)Someothereffects劉晴等（2014）出口退稅與房價InspiredbyChandraandLong(2013)2013年70個大中城市新建商品住宅銷售價格同比上漲的城市個數(shù)年末仍有69個。有趣的是，2014年上半年我國出口貿(mào)易和部分城市的房價同比都有所下降。出口退稅與房價：作用渠道財政視角土地財政我國在1998年和2004年先后實(shí)施了住房制度改革和土地“招拍掛”政策。土地價格和房地產(chǎn)價格不斷上升，地方財政對土地財政的依賴逐步加重（賈康和劉微，2012）出口退稅與房價：作用渠道貨幣視角長期的外貿(mào)順